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At present, the global soybean market has changed dramaticly! Russia has increased prices by 30%, Brazil has cut production, and U.S. soybeans have turned into the "biggest winners."
domestic soybean market has also changed, price increases become mainstream, Northeast soybeans rose to 3 yuan per kilogram may not be a dream.
1. After Russia set an export target of 3.7 million tons of soybeans to China, Russia announced: Soybean prices rose by 30%! Russia has officially announced on January 4th that it will impose an export tax on soybeans exported from countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union from February 1st to June 30th, at a rate of 30% of the duty paid, but not less than 165 euros per ton (i.e. 1307 yuan per ton).
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development said the decision to raise prices was related to the recent rise in international soybean prices, which was also intended to give priority to the supply of soybeans in Russia.
that is, the price of Russian soybeans imported by China will be forced to rise after February 1st, a move that is clearly not conducive to co-operation, but price increases have become a reality.
, Brazil is the world's largest supplier of soybeans.
In fact, Brazil's 2020 soybean cultivation cannot be advanced because of "gods" - the pace of soybean cultivation in Brazil has fallen to its lowest level in a decade due to dry weather in September and early October 2020, leading to fears that the harvest will be delayed.
the delay in the soybean harvest has also led to a historic scene in the global soybean market.
October 2020, the Brazilian government announced that it would suspend an 8 per cent import charge on soybeans from countries other than Mercos members of the Southern Common Market, a group of five South American countries, to help the country lower food prices, which have been pushed down by inflation.
reduction of soybean production and export volume in Brazil will lead to changes in the international soybean market.
3. U.S. soybeans have turned into the "biggest winners" in Brazil's soybean production, with some analysts pointing out that the competitive price of U.S. soybeans could mean that the U.S. may become a supplier of soybeans to Brazil, something that has never been seen before in modern history.
same time, the U.S. took orders for 20.05 million tons of soybeans from China, and the U.S. soybeans welcomed "new buyers"! The U.S. received orders not just from Brazil, and a deal with the Chinese market was the hope of local farmers.
first 11 months of 2020, China imported 20.05 million tons of soybeans from the United States, up 45 percent from 13.85 million tons a year earlier, according to customs data. More than that, China remained the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans in the week to December 3, 2020, buying 685,400 tons of soybeans in the 2020-21 sales year, according to the USDA's weekly trade data.
What really surprised analysts, however, was that China also bought 126,000 tonnes of soybeans for the 2021-22 U.S. sales year in just seven days, which won't be shipped until after harvest next year.
, the U.S. soybean market has turned into the "biggest winner" at a time of dramatic changes in the international soybean supply market.
, domestic soybeans are also changing by the impact of the international soybean market, the increase in domestic demand, domestic soybean prices rose again, and later also bullish.
(1) At present, the price of soybeans in northeast China is stable, southern soybeans strengthened yesterday, soybean prices around: Heilongjiang Nahe: wool grain 2.66-2.67 yuan, tower grain 2.78-2.8 yuan Heilongjiang Sun Wu: gross grain 2.7 yuan, tower grain 2.8 yuan; Heilongjiang Lulen: gross grain 2.65-7 yuan, tower grain 2.8 yuan; Heilongjiang Shangzhi: gross grain 2.7 yuan, tower grain 2.82 yuan; Heilongjiang Fujin: gross grain 2.65 yuan, tower grain 2.75 yuan; Heilongjiang Keshan: gross grain 2.6-2.65 yuan, tower grain 2.8 yuan; Heilongjiang Nenjiang: gross grain 2.65-2.7 yuan, tower grain 2.77-2.8 yuan; Inner Mongolia poplar tree: wool grain 2.65 yuan, tower grain 2.8 yuan; Shandong Luze: gross grain 3.0 yuan, net grain 3.15 yuan; Xuchang, Henan Province: net grain 3.05-3.1 yuan; Henan Zhoukou: net grain 3.05 yuan; Anhui: net grain 3.1-3.14 yuan; Jingzhou, Hubei: net grain 3.35 yuan; Changde, Hunan: Precocious beans 3.45 yuan, medium soybeans 3.35 yuan.
(2) soybean years ago strong, after bullish short-term soybean prices firmly rise, the Spring Festival close, manufacturers and enterprises to increase procurement efforts, the Northeast region inquiry customers increased, due to sporadic regional outbreaks relapse, manufacturers also have concerns about late procurement, more manufacturers choose to do as much inventory as possible now to the Spring Festival, in case of need.
and the current market grass-roots surplus grain is almost bottom, piles of grain to sell less likely, before the Spring Festival soybean prices are strong mainly.
Long-term market still has bullish room, low U.S. soybean stocks, South America's new season soybean production is expected to be lowered, the situation of foreign outbreaks is severe, multi-country restrictions on grain export policies, international grain prices in the new year to continue the high trend is inevitable, affected by the outbreak port supply is tight, imported soybean prices continue to be high, domestic soybean market share increased, other domestic grain crops corn and other large increases, and after the market gradually consume less and less soybeans, the overall new year more and more factors.
long-term soybean prices are worthy of bullish, in 2021 the Northeast soybean breakthrough three yuan is a high probability event.