The future of American soybean market

Introduction: 1 Summary: according to the October production report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the soybean production in 2001 is estimated to be 2.907 billion bushels, which is 149 million bushels higher than the highest record production in 2000, and 73 million bushels higher than the forecast in September The global soybean production in 2001 / 02 market is expected to be 6638 million bushels, which is 275 million bushels higher than that in 2000 / 01 market Soybean production in South America is expected to increase by 132 million bushels, with a total output of 2.642 billion bushels Production of oilseeds other than soybeans is expected to increase moderately as a result of lower production of sunflower and rapeseed Palm oil production is expected to increase again in 2001 / 02 Soybean consumption is expected to continue to grow in the United States and globally, resulting in a 5% increase in soybean meal consumption Soybean and soybean oil stocks are expected to remain large Soybean prices are expected to remain in place for the past three and a half years unless new supply problems arise In 2001 / 02 market year, the average soybean price in the United States is expected to be 4.40 USD / bushel The decision of producer pricing will continue to affect the implementation of the market loan plan 2 Supply Prospect: the stock of U.S soybean at the beginning of 2001 / 02 market is estimated to be 248 million bushels The inventory was much lower than last year's forecast due to stronger exports and higher than expected domestic crushing In the second half of the previous market year, the domestic soybean crushing volume in the United States was particularly large, and the soybean meal export was strong due to the European ban on meat and bone meal In 2000 / 01, the highest record of soybean pressing was 1641 million bushels, 46 million bushels higher than the highest record of 1997 / 98 Soybean exports slowed sharply in the last quarter of last year, still reaching a record 1 billion bushels due to competition from South America and slower imports from China In its October production report, the U.S Department of agriculture estimated that U.S soybean production in 2001 was 2.907 billion bushels, 73 million bushels higher than the forecast in September, 149 million bushels higher than the forecast in 2000, higher than the market expectation The increase in yield is mainly due to the highest record of soybean planting area and the highest per unit yield since 1994 In 2001, the U.S soybean planting area was estimated to be a record high of 75.4 million acres, about 1.2 million acres higher than last year, but about 1.2 million acres lower than the U.S Department of agriculture's March yield report The largest increase continues to be in the western states of the corn belt Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota accounted for 50.2% of the total soybean planting area in the United States, compared with the lowest proportion of 41% in 1990 Soybean acreage in these States has increased by more than 14 million acres since 1990 The Midwest and beyond the plain States account for only 16% of the soybean acreage in the United States The average U.S soybean yield is now expected to be 39.2 bushels per acre, just 1 bushel higher than the September forecast, and only 1.1 bushel higher than last year's average The estimate is the second highest average ever in the United States, 2.2 bushels below the 1994 record Since 1996, the soybean yield in the United States has been relatively stable Compared with the average yield in the 1980s and early 1990s, it is on the rise, but the fluctuation is relatively large Compared with last year's unit production, it is expected to rise sharply in the southeast of the United States, as well as in Kansas and Nebraska Michigan and Minnesota are lower than last year The highest average yield is expected to be 49 bushels / acre in Indiana, followed by 44 bushels / acre in Illinois and Nebraska, and 43 bushels / acre in Iowa and Ohio These four states are expected to account for 50% of total soybean production in the United States Soybean production forecasts fell in September and then increased in October, again in 1987, 1989, 1991 and 1996 During the four years from September to October, the increase range of unit production was 9-76 bushels (0.05-3.3%) This year's growth is 2.6%, which is in these ranges In the past four years, the forecast of November in three years is higher than that of October, with a range of 11-57 bushels (0.05-2.4%) In the fourth year (1987), the forecast for November was 8 million bushels lower than that for October January forecast is higher than October forecast in 1991 and 1996, January forecast is the same as October forecast in 1989, January forecast is lower than October forecast in 1987 The gradient of change so far this year is very similar to that of 1996 Based on the past model, the final soybean production in 2001 will be between 30 million bushels in October Third, consumption is still rising: the highest record consumption of soybean meal in the United States and the increase of soybean meal export led to the huge domestic soybean crushing volume in 2000 / 01 market year In particular, the last quarter of the market year soybean crushing huge In the last quarter, soybean squeezing accounted for 24.2% of the total annual market volume, the highest percentage in 10 years In this year, the market expects that the consumption of soybean meal in the United States will continue to expand slowly, due to the stable number of pigs, the decrease of the number of cattle and the expected increase of 2.5% in the production of wax products A 2% increase in domestic soybean consumption will lead to a total consumption of 32.49 million tons As of October 11, U.S soybean meal export sales reached nearly 2.1 million tons, an increase of 80% over the same period last year The increase in exports to Canada accounted for most of the increase USDA expects soybean meal exports to fall moderately this year compared with last year Global soybean meal consumption is expected to increase, but a certain share of export market is expected to be lost to South America It is expected that the export of soybean meal will be 7.4 million tons and the total consumption will be 39.89 million tons Soybean meal imports are allowed to be 50000 tons, and the ending inventory will be reduced by 50000 tons It is expected that the United States will have to crush 1.658 billion bushels in 2001 / 02 market year to meet the consumption of soybean meal The forecast assumes that 48 pounds of soybean meal will be squeezed per bushel, the same as last year's unit yield If the crushing capacity of soybeans to meet the consumption of soybean meal reaches 1.658 billion bushels, it will mean the production of 18.632 billion pounds of soybean oil, provided that the unit yield of soybean oil is close to 11.24 pounds / bushel as last year US domestic soybean oil consumption is expected to increase by 2% in 2001 / 02, totaling 16.68 billion pounds US soybean oil exports are expected to increase as global vegetable oil consumption increases and sunflower and canola oil production declines The largest area of sunflower seed production is the former Soviet Union, while the largest area of rapeseed production decline is Canada Increased global palm oil production continues to weigh on US soybean oil exports Palm oil production is expected to increase by about 4% from this year to 24.61 million tons Non soybean main vegetable oil production is expected to increase by about 2.3% US soybean oil exports are also driven by increased food aid USDA currently expects us soybean oil exports of 2.45 billion pounds in 2001 / 02 market year It is 1.05 billion pounds higher than the annual export volume of 2000 / 01 market, but 100 million pounds lower than the forecast of last month Soybean oil exports in the early part of the year were significantly higher than that in the same period last year If soybean oil exports reach 2.45 billion pounds and total consumption is expected to be 19.13 billion pounds, the ending inventory will be 2.4 billion pounds The inventory at the end of the period will be lower than that at the beginning of the period, but it will remain at a high level In 2000 / 01, the global soybean trade volume increased by 17%, reaching a record of 2 billion bushels The United States accounts for half of global soybean exports, but South American exports are up 42% from the previous year Soybean imports from the European Union and China increased by 13% and 31%, respectively The EU accounts for nearly 33% of global soybean imports, while China accounts for 24% China's import prospects are uncertain until specific regulations have been announced As of October 11, China will deliver 36 million bushels of us soybeans in this market year, but only 4 million bushels have been imported As of October 11, the total sales and cumulative exports of us soybeans reached 369 million bushels, 12% higher than the same period last year But in the first six weeks of the year, the total number of ships to all destinations was only 63 million bushels, 43% lower than the cumulative number in the same period last year It is expected that soybean production in South America will increase again in 2002, which will continue to constitute a competition for American soybean exports USDA currently expects soybean production in South America to increase to 2.642 billion bushels, 5.3% higher than in 2001 Brazil's soybean acreage is expected to increase by 11% and Argentina's by 4% If these facts become true, American soybean export will hardly reach 1 billion bushels in 2000 / 01 market year 4 Price outlook: according to the predicted level, the soybean stock in the United States will increase to 360 million bushels by the end of 2001 / 02 market year It will be the highest in 15 years But the ratio of inventory to consumption is 12.9%, the highest in three years It is expected that the annual average soybean price in the market is still far below the loan rate, which is lower than the level in the past three years The market is expected to average just $4.40 per bushel of us soybeans for the year If crop growth in South America is in trouble or soybean growth season in 2002 is abnormal in the United States, the price may rise However, it is expected that sufficient supply will continue to put pressure on prices in the near future What is the outlook for seasonal prices? Soybean spot price trends in central Illinois usually occur in the first or fourth quarter of the market year In the past 28 years, the highest daily soybean spot price in 9 years appeared in September, October or November, and 13 years appeared in June, July or August There was a high in January, a high in April and four highs in May The lowest spot price has 12 years in September, October or November, and 13 years in June, July or August There was a low in December, a low in March and a low in April In the past three years, the lowest spot price of soybean in central Illinois ranged from $3.875 to $4.295/bushel The lowest price so far in 2001 / 02 market year is 4.065 USD / bushel established on October 15 Historical experience shows that the spot price of soybean will approach the seasonal low if there is no annual market low It is highly likely that the annual market low will occur, and the new market low will appear next summer, if the production will continue to remain large If the market is now at an annual low, it is expected to be at an annual high from May to August 2002 The lowest and highest change range of soybean spot price in central Illinois in the past three years is 1.05-1.92 USD / bushel In the past 28 years, only two annual changes have fallen below $1 Historical data show that spot soybean prices in central Illinois are expected to be $3.90-5.00 per bushel this year (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: