The fall in pig prices has attracted attention, and experts say prices are unlikely to fall below 10 yuan per litre.

Just after the 11th long holiday, listed pig companies have disclosed September pig sales data, Makhara shares, Wenshi shares, New Hope and other pig prices have fallen 6 to 7 percentage points month-on-month.
and into October, the decline in pig prices has not stopped.
the future trend of pig prices, there are different voices in the industry, experts said, in the long run, pig prices will enter a downward trend, but is unlikely to fall below 10 yuan / kg.
in the context of accelerated expansion of pig enterprises, the industry may go through the stage of overcapacity, but excess time can be shortened through macro-control and rational self-control.
price of pigs is unlikely to fall below 10 yuan / kg in the pork price decline, there are a variety of pre-judgment pig prices in the market.
Among them, Tao 1shan, chairman of the Tang Dynasty God, told the media, "There are already big pig farmers in the circle forecast that by 2022, the domestic meat price will fall to 10 yuan (per catty), I am more pessimistic, when the price of meat fell to 4 yuan -5 yuan (per catty), is entirely possible."
" but on September 11th, the 2020 Hunan District listed companies investors online collective reception day activities, Tang God's board secretary Sun Shuangsheng said, "pig price fell below 10 yuan / kg" and other statements do not represent The Tang God's complete view of the pig industry.
New Hope President Zhang Minggui also said that the current industry's common pig costs are more than 20 yuan / kg, pig prices once fell below 20 yuan / kg, or even fell below most of the breeding cost line, will produce a rebound, it is not possible to continue to fall.
Feng Yonghui, chief analyst at China Pig Early Warning Network, believes that the two very different statements need to be understood in the light of future outbreak developments, if the outbreak is stable soon, prices may fall, and if the outbreak repeats it, then prices may remain high for some time.
Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Livestock and Veterinary Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed out that in fact, the price of pork that Tao Yishan wants to express should refer to the price of pigs, and the price of pork bought by everyone has a certain difference.
this, the fall to 10 yuan / kg is not in line with the market law.
as a common sense, the normal cost price of pigs is around 15 yuan / kg, when the price continues to fall to a loss-making state, no farmer will choose to lose more and more.
"But pig prices are unlikely to remain above 20 yuan/kg, Zhu said, as long as farming can guarantee income, farmers will be stimulated by the benefits to expand out of the column, but when production capacity returns to normal levels, pig prices will fall near its cost line.
" is only in the current context of the current no vaccine, the overall rate of expansion may be affected by external shocks such as African swine fever, the length of price decline may change.
" overcapacity is inevitable but will not be long Huatron analyst Dong Guangyang pointed out in the research report, the biggest difference in the current pig cycle is the accelerated increase in the scale of breeding, scale farms in the land, capital, species, disease prevention and control, management level and other levels occupy a full range of advantages, expansion rate far exceeds the industry average.
fact, even if pig prices fall, the major pig companies have not stopped expanding.
September 13, Makhara announced that it intends to issue convertible bonds to raise 10 billion yuan for pig farming projects, pig slaughter projects, repayment of bank loans and supplementary working capital.
September 14, Zhengbang Science and Technology disclosed that four wholly-owned subsidiaries intend to invest a total of 761 million yuan to set up 13 new sub-farming companies to expand their main business.
Tao Yamayama also mentioned the worry of overcapacity in his pessimistic forecast of pig prices.
" China's major pig-breeding enterprises have released the scale of pig-raising projects under construction or will be built will reach 2 billion head, while China's pork consumption is only 650 million head, the future pig industry will appear overcapacity.
, Zhu said, any agricultural price cycle will inevitably experience overcapacity.
the size of the 2 billion head capacity described by Tao Isan is an overly theoretical paper figure that leaves supply and demand and market volatility behind.
, pig-breeding enterprises will work out column goals, and with the exception of a few enterprises, most enterprises are difficult to fully achieve the phased goals.
First, the progress of the column will be affected by market fluctuations and adjustment, and second, china's pig storage column exceeds the normal storage column volume, pig prices will gradually approach the cost price, farmers will adjust production according to the market mechanism.
Feng Yonghui also believes that at the current rate of expansion of large enterprises, overcapacity is not possible, and the immediate impact of overcapacity on the industry is loss and accelerated industry reshuffle.
Qian, an analyst at Guangfa Securities, pointed out in the study that cost control will be a long-term competitive factor in the context of the gradual weakening of cyclical logic.
industry will focus more on cost control, capacity growth and other variables, the differentiation between enterprises will increase.
Zhu Zengyong told the Beijing News that although overcapacity is the only way, but through timely warning, rational farmers can adjust production arrangements in a timely manner, coupled with reasonable policies and market regulation, can shorten the time of overcapacity maintenance.
, when there is an oversupply, large-scale enterprises will be poor performance of the breeding of pigs to be properly eliminated, thereby regulating the supply of upstream piglets.
Moremore, although many enterprises are taking land to build a field, but will not immediately put into production, more from the investment point of view, for the future development strategy to do reserves, in the case of good policy first accounted for the land, prepared.
.