The expected difference of sales of lenalidomine in the future is 10 billion US dollars, causing great controversy in the industry

Evaluate Pharma, a pharmaceutical market research organization, recently published an analysis of the most controversial products expected to be sold in the biopharmaceutical industry in the future Among them, Revlimid (lenalidomide), a new oncology drug, has been rated as the most controversial heavyweight drug There is a huge gap in its future sales forecast, and there are also big differences between Bristol Myers Squibb and Sanofi When a large pharmaceutical company launches a blockbuster product, executives, investors and analysts have a pretty clear consensus on its potential, right? The answer is, not necessarily! Uncertainties surrounding product line expansion, competitive threats, and patent expiration may lead to a different view of the potential of a single product For example, according to the data of evaluate Pharma, Revlimid's seller sales forecast in 2024, the difference between the lowest and highest sales expectations is as high as 11.5 billion US dollars, making it the most controversial and heavyweight product in the biopharmaceutical industry The fundamental reason for the huge divergence in Revlimid's forecast is that it is not clear when generic drugs will be concentrated in the US market While most of the seller analysts believe this will happen in 2023, some believe the product will be basically intact by 2025 A key hearing next year should provide answers, although there are concerns that the main challenger, Dr Reddy laboratories, an Indian copycat, could launch a copycat earlier Revlimid is one of the best-selling products in the world, with sales of US $8.191 billion in 2017 The 2024 sales forecast difference around the product of up to $11.5 billion is more than 10 times of the sales forecast difference of the heavy products According to the data of evaluatepharma, the average difference between the highest and the lowest predicted value of the listed heavyweight products is US $1.8 billion, and the median value is US $1 billion, which helps to explain why investors are so uneasy about the prospect of the new base Top 10 product oncology bullying is the only "old drug" in the top 10 product list with the most controversial sales expectation The list, like the biopharmaceutical industry today, is heavily in favor of Oncology; the prediction of anticancer drugs is also the largest, and the realization of these predictions often depends on the continuous expansion of new indications The top 10 list is mainly composed of products in the early stage of patent protection life cycle, and emphasizes that these products need to win additional indications to meet higher sales expectations For example, darzalex's sales expectation is mainly determined by multiple label expansion studies, including the most important first-line treatment of multiple myeloma study Maia, which has achieved positive results yesterday However, there is still great uncertainty around darzalex's $6 billion sales forecast for 2024 Investors' confidence was shaken by unexplained price cuts earlier this year, and many analysts are waiting to see if the drug's first-line treatments will boost sales to improve their sales expectations PD-1: the most important PD-1 drugs with different fates of keytruda and opdivo are keytruda of mosadong and opdivo of Bristol Myers Squibb These two drugs are currently carrying out dozens of combined clinical studies to treat various diseases and different stages of diseases And the difference about these 2 products comes from here However, according to the current data, keytruda's highest expectation is $4.3 billion different from consensus forecast, while opdivo's lowest expectation is $3 billion different from consensus forecast From these two products, we can see how the success or failure of multi line expansion affects the prospects of keytruda and opdivo When keytruda stood out in the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, the sales expectation of opdivo fell sharply, while keytruda's expectation rose sharply In addition, Sanofi / regenerant products dupixent and Johnson / MorphoSys products tremfya are new drugs for the treatment of autoimmune diseases, and their sales expectations are highly dependent on the successful development of additional indications Dupixent has been approved by the US FDA to treat moderate to severe eosinophilic asthma, which is expected to increase its sales by US $1.3 billion in 2024, and has recently obtained positive data in the treatment of chronic sinusitis and nasal polyps For tremfya, data on treatment of Crohn's disease may not be available until 2022, which means that the outcome of the indication has little impact on its 2024 sales But there is no doubt that dupixent and tremfya, the most expensive biologics, Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson will need to be careful in pricing to maintain payer prescriptions With the increase of prescription capacity, these two companies may be forced to reduce prices and ultimately affect the sales trajectory of drugs Evaluate Pharma points out that a drug is full of uncertainty in clinical development, and even after it goes on the market, the realization of sales expectation is far from guaranteed The only way biopharmaceutical companies can ensure stable revenue is mature products, and in this regard, they also face the concern of patent expiration, just like the Revlimid of new base The most distributed sales outlooks in biopharma http://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/data-insights/other-data/most-distributed-sales-outlooks-biopharma