The drought of soybean in Northeast China is serious, and the total yield of the whole year is not clear (8.17)

OA show ('918 '); since the middle of this month, most of the drought affected areas in the north of China have experienced rainfall, which alleviated the drought Except for some areas in the northeast, the drought in the soybean planting area has alleviated However, due to the high temperature and little rain which lasted for 30-40 days in the early stage, the side branches of soybean plants decreased, thus affecting the number of knots, and the decline of yield per unit has become a foregone conclusion As the northeast and Inner Mongolia areas with relatively concentrated soybean commodity volume, the output will be reduced due to the decline of per unit yield, which will seriously affect the supply and demand situation of China's soybean market But in most other areas of our country, the growth of soybean is good Some provinces will increase production In addition, the annual soybean planting area has expanded by more than 1 million hectares The so-called reduction of production is only a partial area, and the annual total output will still be significantly higher than last year However, due to the fact that the harvest time of large area is still far away, the total yield of soybean is not clear With the improvement of domestic economic situation and the further development of feed industry and feeding industry, the domestic demand for soybean and soybean meal is gradually increasing The supply of domestic goods is in short supply, which makes the import volume rise by a large margin compared with the same period of last year According to the current situation, the soybean import volume from January to June was 3.53 million tons, an increase of 181.8% over the same period of last year, and since July, the signing of soybean import contracts has continued China's rapeseed harvest, the expansion of soybean planting area and the auction of soybean in Northeast China failed to restrain the scale of soybean import The main reason for the contradiction between the supply and demand of domestic soybean and soybean meal is the price problem Soybean prices on the Chicago Board of trade have declined significantly since the end of June The main reason for the decline in soybean prices in the United States is the good climate in the Midwest, which is conducive to soybean growth and is expected to have a good harvest On July 27, the U.S soybean price was 167.16 US dollars / ton, or 1387.43 yuan / ton (see Table 1) in addition to freight, tax, etc., it is about 1800 yuan / ton, which is about 300 yuan / ton lower than the wholesale market price in China Profitable prices are one of the main reasons why imports remain high Table 1 CME soybean and soybean meal futures price unit: USD / ton daily soybean meal soybean oil 181.18 187.28 352.52 June 29 168.26 169.09 341.49 July 21 170.11 170.08 344.36 July 24 168.63 168.76 341.49 July 25 167.16 167.88 338.41 on July 26, 166.42167.77, 337.08 on July 27, 167.16, 168.87, 338.85 it is worth noting that the price of soybean meal in the United States is slightly higher than that of soybean in recent years, which has lasted for several months, indicating that the demand for soybean meal in the international market is large, while the relative supply of soybean oil is greater than that of demand The price of soybean in wholesale market in China has been declining slowly since the end of June At present, the price in Heilongjiang wholesale market has been stable at 2100 yuan / ton, but the price at the end of June is 2240 yuan / ton Zhengzhou price remains at 2200 yuan / ton Fuzhou soybean price is between 2580-2600 yuan / ton (see Table 2) table 2 Soybean price change in wholesale market of China Date: June 20, July 18, July 25, 2200, 2200, 2200, 2200, 2200, 2200, 2200, 3000, 3000, 3000, Fuzhou 2700, 2580, 2600, last ten days of July 2000 China feed industry information network SQJ (author:)