The domestic soybean price has a lot of resistance

Introduction: In the near future, although the price of imported soybeans in the international soybean market is rising and the price of imported soybeans in Hong Kong is rising, the industry's expectation of soybean import recovering and market price falling is greatly reduced Although the domestic soybean demand is large at present, the price of imported soybeans is high and the profit margin is hard to say, so many enterprises are reluctant to import soybeans The soybean price has been kept at a high level However, due to the fact that the supply quantity of domestic soybean has been basically exhausted, and the delivery soybean is mostly the early contract It can be said that the domestic soybean market price is in a castle in the air situation, gathering all factors The author thinks that the possibility of the later domestic soybean price rising again is weak The specific analysis is as follows: The impact of China's accession to WTO should not be underestimated, and the expected pressure is still heavy Although many analysts pointed out that China's soybean import has been implemented with low tariff access system for a long time, and the number of soybean imports in the past two years is at a high level Therefore, the domestic soybean market has been ahead of other food varieties After China's accession to the WTO, the development direction of the domestic soybean market will not change However, from the perspective of the nature of the phenomenon, after China's accession to the WTO, the international soybean market will not change The impact of the market on the domestic soybean market will be more obvious After China's accession to the WTO, the domestic agricultural products market will be further opened, and the number of imported soybeans will increase significantly, which will have a negative impact on the price of domestic soybeans At present, the gap between domestic soybean supply and demand is about 15 million tons After China's accession to the WTO, soybean import will seriously impact the domestic soybean market price At the same time, in the next five years, China's soybean oil import will increase from 2518000 tons in 2002 to 3587000 tons, so the price will fall, and the soybean oil stock will increase significantly at the end of the period In addition, because the cost of imported soybean oil is lower than the production cost of domestic soybean oil, it will bring heavy pressure to the existing domestic oil extraction enterprises and reduce the demand of domestic oil extraction enterprises for soybeans This year, the overall trend of soybean is that the global supply of soybean is surplus, the growth of soybean consumption demand is slow, and the domestic soybean spot market is facing long-term pressure Since the implementation of genetically modified management measures on March 20 this year, almost no imported soybeans have arrived in Hong Kong before June According to customs statistics, from January to June, China imported 3.26 million tons of soybeans, a 45.4% decrease over the same period last year With the decrease of import volume, the domestic soybean supply is in short supply, and the soybean price begins to rise The highest price of imported soybean is 2300 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic soybean is about 2200 yuan / ton, almost reaching the high point in the past four years When soybean supply is tight, demand is not increasing but decreasing, which can be confirmed from two aspects First, soybean meal price is rapidly falling after a short rise Taking the ex factory price of soybean meal of Dalian oil plant in Liaoning Province as an example, the highest price of soybean meal rose to 1850-1900 yuan / ton on June 3, but it soon fell back In the first ten days of July, the price was 1720-1750 yuan / ton, which fell by 100 yuan / ton in one month Second, although spot prices are high, they have no market When the price of imported soybeans rose to 2300 yuan / ton, many oil extraction enterprises were on the sidelines, and the demand naturally decreased Climate factors are over hyped, and there are many doubts about the price rebound Recently, the sharp rise of CBOT soybean price has nothing to do with weather hype The continuous dry weather in the Midwest of the United States supports the soybean price to go up all the way, but the market hype on weather theme seems to be a little "over" From the history of the past years, CBOT soybean price will basically have a process of hyping the weather from June to July every year Moreover, from the past experience, the price of each hype is on the high side, for example, the highest price in July last year rose to 536 cents / bushel, but later fell to 425 cents / bushel, which indicates that the price in July was seriously on the high side This year's situation is similar Although there are some factors such as the slight decrease of planting area and the depreciation of the US dollar this year, the USDA still expects the average spot price of the us to be 445 cents / bushel this year (425 cents / bushel last year) The price of CBOT contract in July is 50 cents higher than last year's highest point of 536 cents / bushel This year, when the weather hype is ahead of schedule, it can't help but doubt that it has such a strong role in promoting the soybean market From the perspective of soybean growing season, the flowering and filling of soybean in July and August, when the weather is the most important for soybean growth, now the soybean in the United States is basically in the seedling growth period, and it remains to be seen whether the dry weather can reduce soybean production On the other hand, even if the weather in the soybean growing areas in the Midwest of the United States is not conducive to soybean growth, it is not certain that soybean production will be reduced Last year, it was a heavy rain in the Midwest that made the state with the worst soybean growth become the second largest production state in the United States Therefore, to some extent, the current weather has limited impact on soybean growth In the later stage, as long as the weather is slightly normal, the soybean market will return to a rational operation space The policy has been gradually relaxed, and the pressure of price rise shows that since AQSIQ issued the first batch of temporary import licenses in May, the speed of issuing the certificates has been significantly accelerated Now 40 import licenses have been issued, equivalent to 2 million tons to 2.2 million tons of imported soybeans It is estimated that the later certificates will continue to be issued, and the port has allowed the imported soybeans to be unloaded After entering July, the total amount of imported soybeans transported to the port continued to increase significantly It is estimated that the total amount of imported soybeans in that month is 1.1 million tons, most of which are South American soybeans, with Brazil and Argentina each accounting for a considerable proportion As of July 17, the total amount of South American soybeans arriving at the port in July reached 16 ships, 885000 tons in total In addition to 24000 tons of American soybeans in one ship, the total amount of imported soybeans reached 17 ships, 909000 tons in total Analysts from the national grain and Oil Information Center predict that the soybean import volume from June to July will reach about 2.1 million tons, plus 2.2-2.5 million tons of imported soybeans transported in the first two months, and the total import volume in 2001 / 2002 is expected to be 10 million tons The continuous arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong eased the tension of domestic soybeans, and the possibility of spot price rising again in the later period is very small Through comprehensive analysis, although the price of soybean and its by-products in China keeps rising due to the high price of imported soybean, it can be seen that the rising range of market price is slowing down, and even there are signs of stopping rising The resistance to the upward development of domestic soybean market is still great, and the upward space of price will be restrained By analyzing the trend of international soybean price, the domestic soybean price will be restrained in the short term The market price will mainly fluctuate slightly (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: