The domestic soybean market is unpredictable in the near future

Introduction: different from the steady and rising price of corn market and the increasingly clear price of wheat market, the domestic soybean market is in a sudden change in the near future The first shipment of Brazilian soybeans began to unload at Chiwan Port, Guangdong Province This news has aroused thousands of waves in the domestic soybean market The trend of soybean price in the later period is even more confusing There are different opinions on the price trend in the market The author believes that although the imported soybean has entered the market of our country, the recent impact on the market will not be too great, the specific reasons are as follows: in the near future, the domestic soybean market price will not be greatly affected by the import Since the promulgation of the genetically modified policy in June last year, China's soybean import has been the focus of the market However, after the implementation of the genetically modified regulation on March 20 this year, the import of genetically modified soybean has been stagnant The supply of domestic soybean market is facing the crisis of tight supply, and the price of soybean has been rising Since late March, the purchase price of soybean platform in Northeast China and the soybean price in East China have been increasing The price increase of the factory is as high as 300-350 yuan / ton From the perspective of supply: at present, the actual commodity inventory of grain enterprises in Heilongjiang Province is about 500000 tons, the import volume is expected to be 600000 tons before the end of June, and the number of soybean delivered to oil plants is about 500000 tons At present, the port imports soybean inventory is about 300000 tons If excluding the number of crushing plants, the total supply volume of oil soybeans is about 1.9 million tons From the aspect of demand: in 2001, the average number of soybean squeezing per month in China was about 1.8 million tons According to the current processing situation, it is estimated that the total demand for soybean squeezing in June will be about 1.7 million tons, and the total supply and demand will tend to balance, but this is only the assumption we made in the later period when the soybean import is smooth Once the soybean import is blocked, the domestic soybean price is still likely to rise further Even if there is no resistance to the import of soybeans, the recent import quantity will not be very large, and will not have a significant impact on the supply and demand of the domestic market Therefore, the possibility of soybean market price rising in the near future is not great, and the author thinks it will run smoothly The relationship between supply and demand in the international market tends to be stable According to the data of the supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the global soybean output in 2001 / 02 was 184130000 tons, 620000 tons lower than that of last month, and the demand also decreased by 184140000 tons Driven by the decrease of soybean import country's opening inventory, the world carry over inventory decreased by 100000 tons compared with last month, but reflected in the closing inventory of 2001 / 02, there was not much change The maintenance of global soybean supply and demand makes the rebound power of international soybean market insufficient However, the weather conditions in American soybean producing areas are good in recent years, which is conducive to soybean planting and growth, negative news for international market and unfavorable to the continuous rise of international prices On the whole, whether in the domestic market or in the international market, the factors that promoted the soybean market price to go higher in the early stage have weakened It is expected that the domestic soybean market will tend to moderate in June The import of genetically modified soybeans and the international market will become the main factors that determine the future market of soybeans If conditions permit, the soybean price will remain unchanged There is a possibility of upward rush, but it is more likely that stable operation will become the main keynote of market development.