The domestic soybean market is mainly stable, but the future market is still foggy

Introduction: from the middle of March to the middle of March, the price of soybean in other major markets has gradually stabilized except for Xi'an and Hubei Industry analysts pointed out that the late domestic soybean market price is too big tide up and down market should not be too prominent With the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong and the gradual increase of market consumption and other favorable and unfavorable factors, the overall trend of domestic soybeans in the future is still in a fog Dx51 International: compared with the same period last year, the latest data in March showed that global soybean production increased by 9.7 million tons, an increase of 5.3%; global soybean demand and consumption increased by 10 million tons, an increase of 5.4%; global soybean inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons, an decrease of 3.2% Therefore, it can be seen that the global soybean supply and demand show a double increasing trend, but the absolute growth of demand and consumption are respectively greater than the absolute growth and relative growth of output, resulting in a steady decline in soybean inventory Compared with the latest data in March and February, the soybean production of China and the United States is the last year's data, so it remains unchanged Brazil soybean is close to harvest, and the yield remains unchanged, indicating that the predicted data is closer to the actual yield The increase of Argentina's output will lead to the increase of short-term supply in the global soybean market and have a certain impact on the trend of the international soybean market In fact, the heavy spot pressure of South American soybean has become the main negative theme of the current international and domestic soybean market China's soybean supply and demand are booming, but the stock volume is decreasing, so it has a positive effect on the price trend of soybean market DX5 2 Policy: the State Planning Commission issued the policy of supporting soybean industry At the end of January, the State Planning Commission and other nine departments issued the notice on the implementation of relevant measures to further support the development of China's soybean industry, making new provisions on supporting soybean production, processing and encouraging soybean meal export The railway construction fund exempted from soybean meal was determined in the notice, and the policy of actively encouraging soybean meal export was clearly adopted, and the implementation rules will be issued in March It is also predicted that China will eventually become a major exporter of soybean meal At present, the crushing capacity of domestic soybeans has increased from 50000 tons per day to 126900 tons per day, and the annual crushing capacity has increased significantly to more than 30 million tons, of which 22 million tons were squeezed in 2002 Meanwhile, the consumption scale of domestic edible oil demand has been significantly expanded, and the consumption scale of per capita edible oil demand has increased significantly from 4.8kg to 14 Kg, obviously, the expansion of soybean meal and soybean oil demand in the medium and long term will provide a certain support for the stable and rising soybean market price DX5 3 Planting: the area of soybean planting in China has increased significantly Soybean farmers in Northeast China generally tend to expand soybean planting area According to a survey of the intention of Northeast soybean farmers by relevant departments, it is expected that the soybean planting area will increase steadily this year Among them, the soybean planting area in Heilongjiang Province has increased significantly, and the soybean planting area will also increase in Jilin Province due to the implementation of the soybean corn rotation plan Therefore, on the premise that the climate of domestic soybean producing areas will not suffer from serious natural disasters, the domestic soybean output is expected to increase steadily and gradually this year, and the domestic soybean supply will also increase synchronously DX5 4 Import: in the future, South American soybeans will gradually enter the domestic market On February 8, the genetically modified Office of the Ministry of agriculture officially accepted the application of Brazil's temporary import certificate of genetically modified soybeans submitted by foreign companies Meanwhile, the AQSIQ recently said informally that it would cancel the 30 day effective period of the import license of soybeans, objectively shortening the time limit for Brazil's soybeans to arrive at the domestic market South American soybeans are expected to enter the domestic market in the middle of April Compared with American soybean import cost, South American soybean import cost is relatively low, the difference between them is 150-220 yuan / ton, which will restrain the domestic soybean market price DX5 to sum up, there are still many uncertain factors in the price trend of domestic soybean market in the later period Although South American soybean imports are increasing gradually and domestic soybean supply is likely to increase steadily in the future, the supply and demand of international and domestic soybean markets are generally large, and policy factors promote domestic soybean products to expand export scale However, from the current domestic soybean market trend, the possibility of a large increase and a large decrease will not be too great, and a slight decline in stability will be the domestic soybean market in the future The theme of the market trend Dx5