The domestic phenol market price war in 2015 is on the line

"The phenol market in 2015 is destined to be a tumultuous year, with capacity layouts changing, overcapacity looming over the industry or facing a reshuffle and a price war looming." Zhu, director of China Petroleum Northeast Sales Company, said.A huge new capacity
into 2015, Sinopec Mitsui 250,000 tons / year phenol, Xisa Chemical 250,000 tons / year phenol, Taiwan chemical fiber 300,000 tons / year phenol will be fully put into operation in the first quarter, and commercial operations. At present, Sinopec Mitsui new phenolic ketone device has been available, the industry mentality is depressed, for the future market are pessimistic.
" the above three sets of devices concentrated in East China, East China phenol production capacity increased to 1.535 million tons / year, accounting for more than 60% of the country, phenol monthly production capacity will increase by 67,000 tons. Its downstream BPA capacity in East China has 560,000 tons, in 2015 is expected to consume about 1.05 million tons of raw material phenol, phenol will still have a certain amount into the local market and North and Central China market. The flow of goods may be more frequent, creating pressure on the market. Director Zhu said.
understand that China's phenol long-term in short supply situation, self-seppic rate hovering around 50%. But that has reversed in recent years with the rapid rise of domestic phenolic ketones. From the end of 2011 to 2013, the domestic production capacity of phenol almost doubled, and now a number of projects are completed and put into operation, the competitive pressure of the industry is self-evident.
statistics, in 2015, the domestic phenol program will reach 800,000 tons of new production, production capacity will reach 2.5 million tons, an increase of 48% over 2014. By then, overcapacity will intensify and the market will be more competitive.Anti-dumping measures due at
According to the Ministry of Commerce's Notice on the Expiration of Anti-Dumping Anti-subsidy Measures in 2015, anti-dumping measures against imports of phenol originating in Japan, South Korea, the United States and Taiwan, China, will expire on January 30, 2015.
Chinese mainland anti-dumping measures against phenols began on 1 February 2004 for a period of five years. On January 30, 2010, the Ministry of Commerce issued another announcement, continuing to implement anti-dumping measures for five years against imports of phenols originating in Japan, South Korea, the United States and Taiwan.
now, anti-dumping measures against phenol, which have lasted for 10 years, are coming to an end. It is understood that the domestic phenol manufacturers have not yet filed a review application, mainly the domestic phenol industry supply is sufficient, on the other hand, in the domestic phenol import trade mode accounted for, in 2014 the general trade showed a significant reduction, compared with 2013 decreased by 17%, has long been out of dependence on imports, passive beating situation.
according to statistics
, China's net phenol imports reached a peak of 724,000 tons in 2011 and quickly turned downwards, dropping to 570,000 tons in 2012 and further to nearly 360,000 tons in 2013, equivalent to only half of 2011. In the first 11 months of 2014, it was 196,000 tonnes. The data of the decrease of import year by year have become the evidence of the increasing production capacity of phenol in China. At the same time, exports are increasing. From January to November 2014, domestic phenol exports were 366,000 tons, an increase of 924% over the same period last year.
china's imports will continue to decline after three new phenolic ketones are put into operation in 2015, hitting countries such as South Korea and Japan, which are mainly targeting imports from China. At the same time, the domestic market competition intensified, enterprises may begin to look for new export markets. But with the end of anti-dumping, foreign products increase the cost advantage, domestic manufacturers to open up the market will be more difficult.
not only that, japan and Europe and the United States since the processing of phenol re-export mode into the domestic market, compared with 2013 increased by 11%, but also put pressure on domestic market exports.
" but on March 5, 2014, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India made an anti-dumping decision on phenols originating in Taiwan and the United States. Among them, Taiwan enterprises are subject to temporary anti-dumping duties of US$46.07 to US$193.9/tonne; Anti-dumping duties against U.S. companies are $146.09 per ton. For Chinese mainland, choosing to export to India may be a way to defuse overcapacity. Director Zhu said.
growth rate of
, the pace of downstream BPA expansion lags significantly relative to the rapidly increasing capacity of phenol. According to incomplete statistics, the new capacity of BPA will reach 680,000 tons in 2015, and 600,000 tons of phenols are expected to be digested. And from the point of view of the new BPA manufacturers, most manufacturers are supporting the production of phenols, in 2015 BPA will become the main downstream industry of phenols.
remaining phenol capacity will depend on the phenolic resin industry or export to digest. However, the phenolic resin downturn in 2014 performance, "high season is not strong, low season is not light" has been the consensus of the industry. At present, the market maintains a weak pattern, the demand for raw materials is difficult to release.
, leading products, mainly aromatics, have fallen by about 50 per cent as international oil prices have fallen sharply. Phenol raw material costs continue to fall, the current mainstream phenol factory had to choose to list to protect prices, however, some dealers under the short mood of ultra-low prices, so that phenol market prices are still at record lows.
, with the release of new capacity, market competition has become more intense, the beginning of 2015 adverse state or will continue; Anti-dumping expires, foreign products will certainly start a price war in the domestic market, the market or will smoke up, prices or will continue to fall.