The domestic feed market is booming in the fourth quarter

Introduction: in the first three quarters of 2004, the feed raw material market fluctuated In addition to avian influenza, overload control, anti-dumping case of prawn in the United States, lifting of the European Union's ban on poultry in Asia and so on, the feed and related breeding industry presented a rare scene of excitement in recent years On this basis, the feed and feed raw material market is still booming in the fourth quarter Soybean prices are still controlled by the market of major oil companies, and the fluctuation of prices depends on the oil companies' faces Although American soybeans still play a role of stabilizing prices, they still can't catch up with the pace of market demand, as exemplified by the recent sharp rebound in soybean prices Therefore, although the soybean price is uncertain, the short-term and long-term trend will show a solid upward trend Soybean meal is driven by the tight supply of the whole soybean market, and the soybean meal market is also much better The pig market is booming, the price is optimistic for a long time, and the farmers are eager to supplement the market, which will undoubtedly stimulate the soybean meal market directly Similar to soybean market, soybean meal will show an upward trend before winter, or even a rapid rise in the short term However, it should be noted that the impact of seasonal zero feed demand in the aquatic product market in the fourth quarter on the soybean meal market, as well as the decline in the price of fish meal, slowed down the demand for soybean meal to replace fish meal From the above analysis, in previous years, after the decline of demand for aquatic feed, the situation of soybean meal price decline may change this year In the fourth quarter of this year, soybean meal market will rise slightly in the long term and fluctuate in the short term When the fish meal bull market ended, the price began to cool The price decline of each port is about 400 yuan / ton The price in some areas fell to 6000 yuan / ton With the overall opening of domestic sea areas and the decrease of demand for aquatic feed, the 2004 bull market of fish meal will end in this quarter, and the price will gradually decrease As a supporting role of fish meal and soybean meal, miscellaneous meal has increased by different ranges compared with last year, among which rapeseed meal has increased by nearly 300 yuan / ton In general, the price of miscellaneous meal will be stable in the fourth quarter Cottonseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate with cotton harvest and poultry stocks The fluctuation range is mainly determined by the risk tolerance psychology of poultry households after winter As a bulk raw material in feed, corn is greatly affected by "super control" However, with the impact of new corn listing in different regions, corn prices in the North began to fall, and the price change in the South would slow down due to traffic impact With the increase of green and yellow fodder in autumn, the demand for corn and grain will decrease in the short term In the long-term view, corn will return to a more stable price with the increase of acquisition, and there is no possibility of long-term decline Although the prices of amino acids and lysine are still high, they are not too heavy for human operation, and their use is limited, which will not have a direct impact on feed prices From the analysis of feed overall situation, feed sales have been closed this year, and enterprises are going up or down for final adjustment In terms of the overall situation, the feed price has risen in the whole line this year: compared with the same period last year, the price of aquatic compound feed has increased by 200-400 yuan / ton, shrimp feed by 500-600 yuan / ton, and concentrated feed for livestock and poultry by 200-300 yuan / ton The price of compound feed for livestock and poultry has not changed much.