The domestic aquatic feed profile in 2012 and the development characteristics of 2013.

Introduction: OA show ('918 '); 2012 is a year of rapid development of domestic aquatic feed industryThe annual total output of aquatic feed reached 18.55 million tons, with a growth rate of nearly 20%, which is a year with good overall growth in the past decadeFrom the overall sales situation of the whole year, thanks to the ideal climate conditions and the increase of farmers' enthusiasm for feeding, in the first half of 2012, the demand for aquatic feed in major regions of the country showed an explosive growth, and the growth rate of some leading enterprises and brand enterprises reached or even exceeded 30% (the growth rate of aquatic feed in the first half of 2012 of Tongwei Co., Ltdexceeded 40%)Especially in South China, the expansion materials and shrimp materials of benchmarking enterprises are even in short supplyIn the second half of the year, with the changes of climate conditions, aquaculture situation and market situation, the sales growth of each region slowed down rapidlyBecause the sales of aquatic feed in the second half of the year exceeded the proportion of more than 60% of the annual sales, the change of sales in the second half of the year significantly reduced the growth rate of the annual aquatic feedHowever, thanks to the rapid growth in the first half of the year, the growth rate of the national aquatic feed still reached Nearly 20% is the best level in nearly a decadeFrom the perspective of national sales regions, aquatic feed sales are mainly concentrated in three major regions of South China, central China and East China, all of which have reached or even exceeded the level of 4 million tons; followed by southwest, North China and Northeast China, the total sales volume of aquatic feed in the above six regions is about 16 million tons, accounting for more than 85% of the total production of aquatic feed in 2012Among them, the top ten provinces of aquatic feed sales in 2012 are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian, Henan, Sichuan, Liaoning and HebeiThe total sales volume of the top ten provinces of aquatic feed sales is close to 12 million tons, accounting for 64% of the total production of aquatic feed throughout the countryFrom the perspective of the sales volume of mainstream aquatic feed enterprises, according to the annual report of relevant listed companies and the survey data of consulting companies, the top 10 aquatic feed enterprises in China in 2012 can be roughly divided into three echelons according to the production and sales volume and gross profit rate (adjusted by individuals according to multiple data)The first echelon is 2 million tons of enterprises: Tongwei (2.12 million tons) and Haida (1.95 million tons); the second echelon is 500000-1 million tons of enterprises: Hengxing (850000 tons), Zhengda (800000 tons), new hope Liuhe (620000 tons) and Yuehai (460000 tons); the third echelon is 200000-300000 tons of enterprises: mainly including purena and uni presidentAmong them, the total sales volume of the top 10 enterprises reached about 8.2 million tons, accounting for 44.2% of the total output of aquatic feed in 2012At the same time, the top 11 to 20 enterprises in terms of sales volume are almost the same, all of which are about 100000-200000 tons, such as Quanxing, tianbang, Guangshun, Cargill, Dongfang hope, COFCO, dabianong, huaidajiang, Hefeng, Qianqian, Jinping, Shihai, Australia and ChinaThe annual report shows that the growth rate of Tongwei aquatic feed in 2012 is 29.4%, and that of Haida aquatic feed in 2012 is 23%; meanwhile, the average growth rate of the top 20 aquatic feed enterprises in the industry is about 25.8%, which is about 5.8% higher than the overall average growth rate of the industryLast year, the total sales volume of the top 20 aquatic feed enterprises was about 9.5 million tons, that is, the sales volume of the top 20 enterprises accounted for more than 50% of the total production of aquatic feed in 2012With the further intensification of competition, the general trend of industry integration is inevitableStatistics show that since 2013, a total of 33 listed companies of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have implemented or are implementing M & A, accounting for 42.31% of the listed companies in the industryThe industry has continued to integrate, and the industrial concentration has increased rapidlyIn my opinion, in general, enterprises above 500000 tons will be strong, especially those of 2 million tons will be stuck for a long period of time, but it is not ruled out that the sales gap will expand in the past three years; enterprises between 100000 tons and 500000 tons will be polarized, and a few will stand out and break through the million tons, while a considerable number of enterprises will Maintain the status quo and even gradually shrink; some regional strong and characteristic enterprises will occupy a place for a long time among the enterprises below 100000 tons and around 100000 tonsAt the same time, we should fully recognize and recognize that there are some regional strong and characteristic enterprises in each region that we should respect and learn fromIn terms of aquatic feed sales, fresh water pellet still accounts for a large proportionIn 2012, the sales volume of aquatic pellet feed in China was about 13.77 million tons, accounting for 75% of the total sales volume of aquatic feedThe total volume of expanded materials sold is close to 2.5 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the market share of the common fresh water fish materials; expanded materials are mainly concentrated in high-end famous and special varieties, accounting for about 73% of the special breeding varieties other than shrimp materials and eel materialsAt the same time, expanded materials are gradually transiting from the famous and special varieties to the common breeding varieties, from the coastal region to the inland region, due to the artificial and pond rent With the impact of input-output ratio, the cultivation of famous and special varieties will continue to heat up in recent years, which is bound to increase the demand for expanded materialsAt present, there are more than 300 expansion lines in China, including more than 200 in South ChinaThe output of expansion lines in China is estimated to be more than 5 million tons, which is more than double the sales volume of expansion materials in 2012Generally speaking, there is a situation of oversupplyHowever, in my opinion, a few enterprises with strong competitiveness still have a large growth space for expanded materials
From the perspective of market competition environment, there are six regions with the most concentrated aquatic feed sales in China: South China, East China, central China, southwest, North China and Northeast ChinaThe competition is still unbalancedGenerally speaking, the competition pressure in South China, central China and East China is higher than that in southwest, North China and Northeast China In terms of competition pattern and market competition intensity, the pressure in South China is higher than that in southwest, North China and Northeast China It is still higher than East China and central China However, with the establishment of Haida group's East China region in 2012, and the decision of Haida to invest 60% of its recent non-public investment of 1.14 billion production capacity in Central China, it can be predicted that in the next few years, the competition between East China and central China will be more intense, and a new round of expansion competition will be launched in these two regions In the competitive environment of special aquatic feed, four special aquatic feed groups (Tongwei, Haida, Hengxing and Yuehai) have occupied about 60% of the market share of shrimp feed and high-grade special expanded feed, and the competition of special aquatic feed is more fierce than that of general aquatic feed Although Tongwei has been in the special aquatic feed sector for more than ten years, there are still many technologies, experiences and ideas to learn from the industry benchmark enterprises In recent years, with the increase of the company's input and attention to special aquatic feed, the special aquatic feed sector has gradually shown a good momentum of growth, with a certain growth potential Characteristics and forecast of industry development in 2013: after the rapid development in 2012, the industry entered its own adjustment period in 2013 With the influence of multiple factors such as continuous rainfall, severe weather conditions and terminal product prices in various regions, by the end of August 2013, the overall development of the industry was still unsatisfactory, with a significant decline in sales In this context, the industry as a whole has declined significantly, and the medium-term performance of many large and medium-sized enterprises and even leading enterprises can not meet the expectations, even a year-on-year decline of more than two digits In general, in 2013, aquatic feed can be summarized as "overall downturn, low development between two high and middle schools, and unbalanced regional development" Overall downturn: across the country, almost all kinds of breeding, no matter high-end or low-end, are in a situation of low storage capacity, weak willingness of farmers to feed and weak terminal price, which seriously affects feed sales Low sales between two high and middle schools: from the perspective of monthly sales changes nationwide, the sales volume increased significantly from January to March 2013, and began to decline significantly from April to July, and gradually improved from August It is expected that the total amount of domestic aquatic feed and the completion of the planned tasks of enterprises in the South (the overall situation of the northern region has been determined) in the later period will mainly depend on the weather conditions in September and October and the feeding willingness of farmers (it is preliminarily estimated that there will be a relatively obvious growth in the whole country in September and October, but there will be a large imbalance in each region) Unbalanced regional development: different from the balanced development of production and sales in 2012, the growth of aquatic feed sales in South China, East China, central China and other major regions in 2013 was significantly different Generally speaking, the growth in Central China was good, while that in East China was basically the same or slightly increased, while that in South China was significantly decreased 2013 is the 31st anniversary of Tongwei group How to ensure the sustainable and stable development of the enterprise is particularly important in the year when the industry itself is adjusted, the whole industry is in downturn, and various uncertain factors occur frequently We are pleased to see that in 2013, under the severe situation of the industry as a whole, Tongwei's aquatic feed still achieved a counter trend growth: in the first half of 2013, the total aquatic feed increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the special aquatic feed achieved nearly 20% growth when the industry as a whole declined by more than 20%, ranking in the forefront of the industry According to the market situation in August and September and the operation of the company, the growth rate in the second half of the year will be greatly improved, and the gap with the main competitors is expected to continue to expand The aquatic feed sector is expected to exceed the main competitors by more than 300000 tons in the whole year
2013 is the year when aquaculture and aquaculture feed industry enter into a low ebb, and also the year when aquaculture industry adjusts itself Although under the general situation of rapid integration of the industry, the integration and merger between enterprises has become the general trend, but for each enterprise, this stage of challenge and opportunity still coexists - "everyone is equal before opportunity", the key is to seize the opportunity Ability This requires every enterprise to be more diligent in internal skills, try to create its own advantages in each link, and at the same time, integrate the advantages of each link together, and gradually turn the advantages into the winner In my opinion, as long as every enterprise, no matter how large or small, can maintain full respect for the industry, review and comply with the law of industrial change in a humble attitude, the enterprise can be bigger and stronger, the whole industry will be more and more standardized, and the development of the industry will be better and better The following contents only represent personal opinions, not Tongwei shares