The development situation of domestic corn in the later period is generally optimistic

Introduction: in the near future, the overall performance of the domestic corn market is good In the near future, the overall performance of the domestic corn market is good, and the price generally rises slightly, especially in the northeast main production area According to the situation in Jilin, the purchase price of new corn is rising rapidly The purchase price of corn in the surrounding areas of Changchun has increased from 0.37 yuan / Jin in the early stage to 0.40 yuan at present/ Although the price is rising rapidly, the purchase progress of state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises is still slow due to the small amount of grain in the hands of farmers, serious reluctance to sell, and many channels for purchase As of February 24, the province has put 10.585 million tons of new grain into storage, of which 6.795 million tons of protective price corn has been put into storage, only 73.2% of the task amount has been completed According to the current progress, it is difficult to complete the task of purchasing protective price this year The steady rise of corn purchase price has led to the increase of corn ex warehouse price of grain enterprises At present, the ex warehouse price of corn in central and Southern Jilin is about 950 yuan / ton, the ex warehouse price of corn in Western Jilin is 940 yuan / ton, and the ex warehouse price of corn in northern Jilin is 930 yuan / ton While corn prices in Northeast China remained strong, corn prices in North China, East China and central China rose steadily It is expected that the domestic corn price will keep a slight upward trend in the later period, because: KTJ (I) expects the domestic corn planting area to decline, which will form a favorable support for the later corn price increase According to the prediction of the national grain and oil information center, China's corn output in 2002 was 124 million tons, with a large increase compared with 2001, but it still failed to reach the best level in history Due to the long-term downturn of corn price in 2002, the farmers did not increase their income in the year of high yield, while the soybean price has been strong in the past year, and the farmers have better income from planting soybean, which will stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to plant soybean In addition, the implementation of the national soybean revitalization plan will increase the planting area of soybeans in Northeast China, which will lead to the reduction of corn planting area According to the prediction of a domestic organization, the corn planting area in China will decrease significantly this year, and the average corn planting area in China is expected to decrease by 2% - 3% Among them, the area of Shandong Province and parts of Henan Province will decrease by 7% - 8%, Heilongjiang by 3.5%, Jilin by 2.4%, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia by 2%, but South China and southwest China by 3% - 4% At present, corn has not been planted in China If the above prediction is realized, it will lay the foundation for the price rise of corn in China The domestic corn inventory level of KTJ (2) has been declining year by year, and this year will be a low point in recent years As the level of corn consumption in China has been increasing year by year, the inventory at the beginning of the period has gradually decreased while the supply has remained stable Although the cancellation of export subsidies after China's accession to the WTO has weakened the competitiveness of China's corn in the international market, under the strong support of national policies, the export of corn has maintained a rapid growth trend For several consecutive years, the export of corn has greatly reduced the pressure of domestic corn inventory, and the reduction of corn inventory is finally reflected in the price It is predicted that the carrying forward inventory of China in 2003 / 04 will decrease by 9 million tons, about 49 million tons, which is a low point in recent years KTJ (3) with the Central Plains corn sold out, northeast corn will become the main market supply The transportation "bottleneck" problem not only affects the soybean sales in Northeast China, but also restricts the corn South transportation in Northeast China This situation is obvious in the fourth quarter of 2002 The problem of railway transportation capacity restricting corn south is expected to be alleviated in the future In the normal year, after the new corn is listed in North China and Huang Huai area, most areas in China go to North China and Huang Huai area to purchase grain every year In this area, there are a large number of self-sale and export corn The available quantity of real estate corn can be maintained to March April of the next year, and the export capacity of corn in North China is greatly weakened Since the acquisition of new corn in Northeast China will start in the middle and late November, it will start in November From March to April of the next year, the export quantity of corn in Northeast China will be kept at a low level under the influence of centralized purchase; at this time, the relatively low purchase price of corn in South China and the short transportation distance from the main selling area in South China make corn in North China at a disadvantage It is expected that this seasonal consumption peak in Northeast China will come on time this year With the passage of time, the inventory level of enterprises in the southern sales area will be greatly consumed At this time, enterprises in the Central Plains area will also look for sources of goods due to the limitation of local inventory In the case that imported corn is difficult to enter smoothly, northeast corn will become the only source of supply for domestic corn demand Northeast corn The quantity of entering the customs in the South will be greatly increased At that time, the domestic corn price will encounter the opportunity of rising again KTJ (4) shows that China's corn export will maintain a strong trend in 2003 The price of corn in the United States rose sharply due to the reduction of production, which created a good opportunity for China's corn export The cost of American corn transportation to Asia is about $10 higher than that of Chinese corn per ton China's corn export has an advantage in price and region At the end of 2002, Taiwan, as the fifth largest corn import region in the world, temporarily lifted the ban on corn import from mainland China This year, Brazil's willingness to import corn from China has gradually increased due to the reduction of domestic corn production and supply level In fact, since November 2002, the relevant departments of the Brazilian government have been discussing the issue of corn import from China, and it is reported that COFCO group has made preliminary contact with Brazil on this issue, and recently an official of the Brazilian embassy in China confirmed this intention again China's corn entered the Brazilian market, opening up a new sales field for domestic corn export According to statistics, China exported 11.67 million tons of corn in 2002, compared with 6 million tons in 2001 In 2003, China's corn export is expected to maintain a strong trend, with the export volume of about 10 million tons A large number of corn exports will help ease the domestic corn inventory backlog and promote the recovery of corn prices KTJ (V) international market corn price is running at a high level, so it is difficult to make a breakthrough in corn import this year In 2002 / 03, the international corn supply and demand relationship remained tight, and the international corn price represented by the United States will remain at a high level At the end of February, the average CIF price of American corn to China was about 130 US dollars / ton, so the average port duty paid cost of corn to China in the first half of 2003 was about 1300-1320 yuan / ton (duty paid = 130 * 1.01 (customs duty) × 1.13 (value added tax) × 8.28 (exchange rate) ＋ 100 (Port miscellaneous, commodity inspection, letter of credit) = 1327) In recent years, the average price of corn port in Guangdong Province is only about 1150 yuan / ton, far lower than the price of imported corn As the international corn price is still on the high side and the imported corn is at a disadvantage in price, it is said that in 2003, China's corn import volume will remain at a low level Through the analysis of the above factors, we can see that in the first half of 2003, the domestic corn market operated in a relatively good environment, which laid a solid foundation for the upward development of corn prices in the later period The development situation of domestic corn market is generally optimistic, which has been recognized by most market participants KtJ