The detailed rules of genetically modified management will enhance the flexibility of national management of imported soybeans

Introduction: on January 7, the Ministry of Agriculture announced the management rules of agricultural genetically modified organisms, such as the administrative measures for the safety of import and export of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the administrative measures for the labeling of agricultural genetically modified organisms and the administrative measures for the safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms At present, the most affected agricultural products are soybean and its products Recently, the reporter interviewed people in the industry and asked them to make a comprehensive evaluation and analysis They believe that, as the supporting rules of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the introduction of these management measures has objectively increased the policy room for the import control of genetically modified soybeans, enhanced the flexibility of import control, and has long-term benefits for China's soybean market It is understood that on the day of the introduction of the policy (7 days), the closing price of soybean futures on the Dalian Mercantile Exchange rose nearly 200 yuan / ton each month On August 8, wholesalers of imported soybeans at domestic ports suspended the offer of imported soybeans, and the transaction price of imported soybeans soared to more than 1900 yuan (US $229.55) per ton On September 9, the spot market price began to follow up The price of domestic soybean in Shandong market was 1860-1880 yuan / ton, up about 60 yuan / ton The price of soybean meal was 1560-1600 yuan / ton, up nearly 100 yuan / ton Industry insiders said that through the appearance of the short-term response of China's market after the introduction of the policy, its impact on the nature of China's soybean market is mainly reflected in the following aspects First, we strengthened the safety inspection of genetically modified soybeans According to the detailed rules, as long as overseas companies export or import soybeans to domestic companies, they only need to obtain the agricultural genetically modified organisms safety certificate and mark the products according to the regulations, so as to confirm that these products are harmless to people, animals and the environment It is not, as some previously thought, that the import of genetically modified agricultural products will be banned However, the safety certificate must be obtained before signing the contract, and all imported genetically modified agricultural products, such as soybean, corn, rapeseed, cottonseed and tomato, must be clearly marked with the mark of genetically modified products In a sense, the state has increased the inspection, inspection and supervision of genetically modified agricultural products Second, we have increased the initiative in controlling imported soybeans and increased the flexibility of import control After China's accession to the WTO, the Ministry of agriculture can control the speed and quantity of safety certificate issuance through its initiative of issuing genetically modified organisms safety certificate, so as to indirectly control the quantity of imported soybeans 3 Increase the cost of imported soybeans One is to increase the cost of testing the safety of soybean transgenes In order to obtain the safety certificate, it is necessary to provide the materials required by the regulations, which mainly includes the test report on the safety of human, animal and plant, microorganism and ecological environment issued by the technical testing institution entrusted by the Ministry of agriculture; two is that the implementation of the genetically modified rules will affect every link of the whole soybean industry chain, and the soybean pressing industry, the sale of soybean and its products will be subject to the identification system Third, from the perspective of specific operation, if the application is started now, and the safety certificate cannot be obtained by the implementation date of the detailed rules on March 20, according to the measures for the administration of inspection and Quarantine of entry and exit grain and feed, the soybean will not be able to rely on the port, but can only wait at the anchor point It is said that the cost of staying at the port for one day without unloading will increase by $10000 4 Promote the consumption of non genetically modified soybeans and protect the domestic soybean industry China mainly imports soybeans from the United States and Argentina Most of its products are genetically modified soybeans, while China's domestic soybeans are non genetically modified soybeans Therefore, the introduction of detailed rules is conducive to promoting the consumption of non genetically modified soybeans and protecting the domestic soybean industry The main performance is as follows: 1 Using domestic soybean in soybean pressing enterprises can reduce the risk of soybean import and save the cost of safety inspection and labeling 2 Under the condition of equal or little difference in price, more people will tend to consume non GMO soybean oil and other soybean products In turn, it will drive the consumption of non GMO soybeans 5 The fundamentals of domestic soybean market determined by the supply-demand relationship are still the same No matter in spot or futures, the soybean market does not have the conditions for reversal Although the introduction of the policy has a long-term positive effect, from the perspective of the futures market, the soybean futures price of Dalian Mercantile Exchange rose sharply, mainly affected by the recovery of the U.S market exploration low The market saw signs of the U.S market stabilization, which is based on the background of creating a new low in history, and the overall trend is still short The rise of spot market price is the psychological reflection of the uncertainty of whether South American soybeans can enter China smoothly after March The second is that the rise of price is in the early stage of domestic Spring Festival transportation, which is originally the season of tight transportation capacity and centralized stock of feed manufacturers According to the analysis of insiders, this is the more direct reason for the rise of price LiV