The data shows that the mortality rate of middle-aged people increased in the second year of COVID-19 and decreased among the elderly

According to an analysis of publicly available data, in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality increased due to COVID-19 and other reasons, but the most affected populations changed
in the first and second years.

Even after removing the COVID-19 figures, deaths have increased
in both years compared to the 5 years before the pandemic.
Researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign found that while people over the age of 65 had the deadliest first year of flu, middle-aged people had the most severe flu in their second year
.
Graduate student Ian Ludden, computer science professor Sheldon H.
Jacobson, and Carl Illinois School of Medicine interim executive associate dean Janet A.
Jokela published their findings
in the journal Health Care Management Science.

Jacobson, a data scientist who is also affiliated with the Carl Illinois School of Medicine, said, "If the pandemic hadn't happened, many of them might still be alive today, not just because of COVID-19 deaths, but also as a result of social change that led to premature
deaths.
" So the question is, how can we do better in the future?"

The new study builds on an analysis published in 2021 by Jacobson and Jokra and focused on overdose deaths
in the first year of the pandemic.
Ludden said the new study, based on data from the U.
S
.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, provides insight into trends in mortality rates across different demographic groups each year.

"The general trend we are seeing is that in the second year from April 2021 to March 2022, the situation is more difficult for the middle-aged subgroup, while the mortality rate of the elderly is decreasing,"
he said.

The decline in mortality in the highest age group can be partly attributed to displaced deaths – deaths occur earlier than statistics, so they do not recur
later.
However, Ludden said the data also provide evidence that higher vaccination rates among older adults at the beginning of the second year of the pandemic reduced their mortality
.
"This underscores the importance of
vaccination as a preventive measure," he said.

The researchers noted that among middle-aged adults aged 25 to 54, the fastest increase in mortality was among men and women, and that there were several possible contributing factors
to the second-year spike in deaths in this population.

Jokela said: "We know that the Delta variant surged at that time, and this seems to affect the young and middle-aged population more deeply
than before.
We also know from other studies that preventive care has decreased
during the pandemic.
”

While other researchers and public health experts have also said that the increase in non-COVID-19 deaths could be a ripple effect of routine health checks, chronic disease management, cancer screenings and delayed mental health care, the researchers say that in the absence of real-time data on the causes of non-Covid-19 deaths, public health officials and health care providers have little capacity to address the problem or see the extent of the
impact spreading.

"We've been working hard to provide data for decision-making, simply because the infrastructure doesn't support the timely collection and reporting of data
.
This means that we are basically walking through the fog, trying to make decisions
without complete information.
”

The researchers plan to continue analyzing the data and tracking ongoing trends in mortality to see if the effects of displacement in older populations in the coming years will affect mortality and how long it will take to return to pre-pandemic statistical baselines
.
They also hope to analyze
it in the coming years when the CDC releases more data on causes of death.

"This analysis is in many ways an urgent call to support public health infrastructure so that we can respond
better and more informed," Jokela said.
It is important to
learn from our experience.
We need to explore what's happening here and make the most of this information so that public health officials, clinicians, health care leaders, and others can make the most informed decisions
.
”

Ian G.
Ludden, Sheldon H.
Jacobson, Janet A.
Jokela.
Excess deaths by sex and Age Group in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.
Health Care Management Science, 2022; 25 (3): 515