The current situation of domestic soybean market and the forecast of its future trend

Introduction: since the middle of August, the domestic soybean and soybean meal market has not improved significantly, and the market procurement is relatively flat At present, the purchase price of the second-class soybean market in Heilongjiang Province is generally 3150 yuan / ton, down 0.9% from the same period last month; the purchase price of the second-class soybean market in Jilin Province is generally 3260 yuan / ton, down 0.3% from the same period last month; the purchase price of the middle-class soybean in Liaoning Province is generally 3290 yuan / ton, down 1.2% from the same period last month; the purchase price of the middle-class soybean in Beijing and Tianjin is 3350 yuan/ Tons, down 0.6% on the same period of last month; the price of medium-sized soybeans in Hebei Province is generally 3320 yuan / ton, down 1.2% on the same period of last month; the price of medium-sized soybeans in Shandong Province is generally 3350 yuan / ton, down 1.5% on the same period of last month At the same time of a slight decline in the purchase price, soybean prices in major domestic ports also declined to a certain extent, including 3200 yuan / ton in Tianjin port, 3% lower than the same period last month; 3180 yuan / ton in Yantai, Rizhao and Qingdao port, 3.6% lower than the same period last month; 3200 yuan in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province/ Ton, 3% lower than the same period last month; Shanghai port price is generally 3250 yuan / ton, 2.1% lower than the same period last month Industry analysts believe that this year's domestic new season soybean market will not form a rush to buy situation The main reasons are as follows: first, feed enterprises generally have a bearish mentality towards soybeans in the future, resulting in little interest in market procurement Due to the current market situation is not very clear, so manufacturers are worried about losses, so they are not willing to build large quantities of inventory At present, the breeding industry is in the process of rapid recovery, and the rising price of pork and eggs has stimulated the enthusiasm of some farmers to supplement the stock market However, the consumption of feed for piglets and chicks who have just supplemented the stock market will not be immediately increased, and the substitution advantage of other protein feed materials is still obvious, so the consumption of soybean meal is difficult to show in the demander market in the short term Therefore, the soybean meal inventory pressure of some oil plants remains to be further digested 2 According to the practice of previous years, August and September are good periods for rapid recovery of feed breeding However, due to various reasons, the domestic soybean meal market demand has been difficult to significantly boost recently, and most of the insiders hold a bearish attitude towards the future market of soybean meal, so the soybean raw material procurement strategy for oil plants will also be greatly affected In recent months, the speed of purchasing imported soybeans by domestic oil plants has been significantly reduced, and the port stock soybeans, so the purchase of soybean raw materials will not be expanded rapidly This year's large-scale listing of early maturing soybeans is expected to be in the first half of October, and the comprehensive supply market for the new season will be in November It is expected that domestic oil plants will tend to be calm and rational about the purchase of domestic soybeans this year after experiencing the market fluctuations brought by soybean cost bid up prices 3 The domestic soybean output is expected to reach 17.5 million tons this year According to the survey of relevant departments, it is expected that the soybean planting area in China will reach 148 million mu this year, an increase of about 5.9% over last year According to the data provided by the meteorological department, if the climate does not change greatly in the later period, the soybean output is expected to be about 17.5 million tons this year, exceeding the highest level in history Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing area in China, is expected to produce 10.45 million tons of soybeans this year, an increase of 3.2 million tons over the previous year Due to the oversupply of soybean meal and soybean oil and the falling price of domestic soybean processing products, the soybean crushing enterprises suffer serious losses in processing soybean, which will reduce the demand of soybean crushing and suppress the soybean price in the domestic market, and the listing of new soybean in China will bring a very adverse impact 4 The short-term market demand is difficult to boost significantly, which may cause farmers to be reluctant to sell If it is difficult for oil plants to enlarge their purchasing power rapidly in a short period of time due to the market inertia after the opening of the new season soybean scale, it is likely to cause the soybean farmers in the production area to be reluctant to sell At present, CBOT soybean price is in a relatively low range The price of new season soybean in the United States is lower than that in Brazil Domestic oil companies are purchasing carefully However, it is uncertain whether the U.S fund will bid up the market price due to China's entry into the market Therefore, in the second half of this year, when the purchasing situation of imported soybeans is not clear, the attitude of raw material purchasing of oil plants is waiting to see, especially the attitude of purchasing soybeans in Heilongjiang Province is cautious To sum up, as the trend of domestic soybean meal and imported soybean is not very clear at present, most of the domestic oil plants, especially those in coastal areas, keep a wait-and-see attitude at present It is estimated that the domestic oil plants will be more rational in purchasing domestic soybean this year According to the law of low growth and high growth of domestic soybean in previous years, the market of soybean purchase in new season in Heilongjiang is expected to be extended this year Last year, the Northeast open scale price was 2.10-2.20 yuan / kg This year, it is estimated that the price will not be lower than this price It is possible that the price will hover around 2.20 yuan / kg In the later stage, the factors that affect the purchase of domestic soybeans include the weather changes in the main production areas of the United States and Heilongjiang Province, as well as the outward transportation of Heilongjiang Railway this year