The corn market is about to reverse

Introduction: in the near future, the fundamentals of the domestic corn market are still short, and the corn market is still shrouded in worries about demand digestion after the record increase in production As the global agricultural product price is in the trend of overall decline, the corn price is hard to escape this fate In addition, at the current time when a large number of new and old corn are on the market, the market consumption is low, which makes the prices of the two markets keep falling under a lot of pressure On the international side, reports from various countries show that this year the world has a good harvest of corn and abundant supply On the domestic side, a large number of corn was listed in Guannei, and the price of corn in Northeast China was replaced, which kept falling; the corn in Northeast China was harvested in an all-round way, facing the double pressure of new and old corn, and there was room for the price to continue to fall; the market procurement was cautious, the trading was light, and the price of corn in port hung upside down In order to reduce the domestic market pressure and increase the export strength, CBOT and spot transaction price keep falling, and China's corn export has no price advantage According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China's corn export in September was 40614 tons, down 97% from the same period last year, and the total export from January to September was 1882772 tons, down 82.4% year on year In September, 1062 tons of corn were imported, and from January to September, 2064 tons were imported, an increase of 4424.9% year on year As the National Day holiday just passed, the stock rate of breeding industry is low, and in the state of majority of larvae, the demand for feed is not strong Feed units are not active in purchasing due to their bearish attitude towards the future market And recently published data shows that the consumer price index will fall this month, and the price of fresh meat and eggs in different regions has dropped significantly compared with that before the national day, which will have a certain impact on Farmers' positive breeding friends Under the double pressure of fundamentals and technology, the price of domestic corn market will continue to perform the process of oscillation and bottoming down, but the price drop will not be too large, and the main line of future market will be time for space to digest the negative pattern The specific reasons are as follows: first, the recent contradiction between supply and demand still shows that supply exceeds demand, and the market pressure needs to be slowly digested Second, the current price is a low-level area, whether domestic or CBOT, and has been running here for some time, time will digest all the bad Third, in order to make up for the loss of American farmers' income, the US Department of agriculture has provided loans to corn farmers to supplement subsidies; the weakening of the US dollar is conducive to their corn export, which helps to drive the CBOT price to stabilize gradually Fourthly, the focus of our government's agricultural policy this year is to protect the interests of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", and there will be no increase in production and decrease in income Fifthly, according to the news from Northeast China, the local corn purchase price is 1000-1020 yuan / ton, the corn market transaction price is 1040-1060 yuan / ton, and the vehicle plate price is 1100-1120 yuan / ton Dacheng Group, the largest grain group in Jilin Province, bought the same price of new corn this year However, farmers in some areas are reluctant to sell, and the purchase price is expected to increase Sixthly, due to the two traditional festivals of new year's day and Spring Festival in the later period, the aquaculture industry in various regions recovered rapidly, and the demand for corn feed increased with the increase of stock; and the current corn has a price advantage over wheat feed, which has a certain supporting role in alleviating the continuous decline of market price In addition, due to the fact that feed consumers are not optimistic about the future market, they are cautious in purchasing, and the inventory of each unit is reduced to the lowest level Once the price is stable, centralized purchase and replenishment will have a great impact on the price in a short time Seventh, in order to resist the impact of rising crude oil prices, China has expanded the pilot provinces to implement the ethanol gasoline alternative plan The national development and Reform Commission has introduced that by the end of 2005, China will expand the pilot scope of ethanol gasoline to nine provinces, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Henan and Anhui provinces, which will implement the full closed trial operation, while 27 provinces in Hubei, Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu provinces will basically realize the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles Corn is the main raw material of ethanol gasoline, which will further expand the digestion channel of old corn and stimulate the consumption demand of corn From this point of view, with the passage of time, some favorable factors in the domestic corn market will gradually appear, which will play a driving effect on the market price, and the pressure of new corn listing will also be digested in the continuous decline of the price, and the domestic corn market will soon reverse.