The core production capacity has been damaged by nearly 50%. Will there be any interruption in the supply of live pigs?

Recently, Founder Interim Futures released the results of a survey of live pigs in Henan.

Henan pig survey: irreversible damage to core production capacityUK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Henan Province is an important province in my country for pig breeding and transfer.

Founder Interim Futures stated that the survey conducted comprehensive visits to veterinary drug dealers, vaccine dealers, feed mills, slaughterhouses and some breeders.

 UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

This round of swine disease spread from south to north in Henan, causing more serious losses in western Henan and northern Henan.

Secondly, under the background of repeated swine diseases, the proportion of ternary sows has gradually increased, and the production capacity of the breeding group’s binary sows can be expected to increase.

Finally, mutant strains will have a more long-term impact on the breeding industry than wild poisons.

Looking back at the recent trend of current prices, as the northern swine disease gradually stabilized, live pigs have differentiated from the previous ups and downs to the recent resonant decline.

In fact, since 2019, the live pig market has been repeating the cycle of "infection-selling-pig prices falling-tight stocks-pig prices rising-restocking-infection-reselling-pig prices falling.

 UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The main uncertainty in the future live pig market lies in the interpretation of the two scenarios of "lack of pigs and no meat" and "lack of pigs and meat".

　　Swine disease restricts the transportation of live pigsUK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Since March, the live pig industry has entered the traditional off-season for consumption.

　　In addition, it is worth noting that in order to prevent swine diseases from spreading from north to south, various regional departments have successively issued relevant measures to restrict the transportation of pigs.

 UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The main uncertainty in the future live pig market lies in the interpretation of the two scenarios of "lack of pigs and no meat" and "lack of pigs and meat".

　　Generally speaking, the current series of policies introduced on the market are mainly to prevent the spread of swine diseases.

　　Henan Province is an important province in my country for pig breeding and transfer.

　　Founder Interim Futures stated that the survey conducted comprehensive visits to veterinary drug dealers, vaccine dealers, feed mills, slaughterhouses and some breeders.
The purpose is to understand the current status of pig stocks in Henan Province, especially breeding sows after swine diseases.
In the future, is there a possibility that commercial pigs will be in short supply or even out of stock in the northern region?UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　This round of swine disease spread from south to north in Henan, causing more serious losses in western Henan and northern Henan.
The number of reproductive sows can be reduced by nearly 50%, while the impact on southern Henan is relatively small.
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Considering that the production of live pigs is still mainly concentrated in southern Henan, we expect the overall loss of breeding sows in Henan to be about 20% to 30%.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Secondly, under the background of repeated swine diseases, the proportion of ternary sows has gradually increased, and the production capacity of the breeding group’s binary sows can be expected to increase.
The overall proportion of ternary sows used in Henan shows a pyramid-shaped structure of “the larger the scale, the lower the proportion”.
However, whether it is the southern Henan where the swine disease first broke out or the later northern Henan, the loss caused in the early stage is irreversible.
The time that will lead to the conversion of production capacity to output will be postponed to the first quarter of next year.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Finally, mutant strains will have a more long-term impact on the breeding industry than wild poisons.
From the investigation and understanding, the mutant strain has the greatest impact on the sow population, and its symptoms are also more diversified due to the difference in the immunity level of the pig herd.
It is not limited to fever and anorexia, but also has non-specific symptoms such as lameness and panting.
Symptoms of the opposite sex increase the difficulty for the farm to judge the early infection of the herd.
As a result of asymptomatic pig detoxification, the focus of pig farms was to prevent the import of off-site viruses, but now it is also necessary to prevent the viruses that are already lurking in the farms.
In order to prevent diseases, many pig farms have even stopped conventional vaccination.
, Because of concerns about stress on pig farms infected with mutant strains, leading to outbreaks of other infectious diseases such as diarrhea, foot-and-mouth disease, and ring, all of which have aggravated the instability of production capacity.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Looking back at the recent trend of current prices, as the northern swine disease gradually stabilized, live pigs have differentiated from the previous ups and downs to the recent resonant decline.
In the long-term perspective, the recovery momentum of live pig production capacity continues, and pig prices enter the cycle downward channel, and the price center of gravity moves downward, but the decline is more difficult to achieve overnight.
We are still cautiously optimistic about the pig price in the second half of the year.
In the later stage, we will pay attention to the inflection point and height of the future pig price increase due to the difference in fundamental expectations.
First, pay attention to the digestion of large-weight pigs in the north; second, pay attention to the rebound in the southern region this summer; third, pay attention to the phased outage of commercial pigs in the third and fourth quarters caused by the impaired production capacity of sows in winter.
degree.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In fact, since 2019, the live pig market has been repeating the cycle of "infection-selling-pig prices falling-tight stocks-pig prices rising-restocking-infection-reselling-pig prices falling.
.
.
" The supply of live pigs and pork is mismatched in time and space.
Without a formal and effective vaccine, we tend to think that the current breeding density is difficult to maintain a high level for a long time, and the production capacity still lacks the conditions for explosive recovery.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The main uncertainty in the future live pig market lies in the interpretation of the two scenarios of "lack of pigs and no meat" and "lack of pigs and meat".
We expect that in the second quarter there will be a shortage of pigs and no meat in the market.
As the stock of large pigs at the breeding end bottoms out, the bottom of the pig price will gradually become clear.
The digestion of big fat pigs will gradually improve the upside-down of the fat label price, thereby stimulating Open secondary fattening downstream; on the other hand.
As the temperature rises in the later period, northern family farms and free-range households will start a large-scale replenishment behavior.
When sow replenishment and secondary fattening demand overlap, the price of live pigs is expected to be boosted.
The lack of pigs and lack of meat will most likely occur in the fourth quarter.
The phased outage of commercial pigs due to the damage to sow stocks in the north in winter and the start of the consumption of smoked and smoked products in the south will push the price of pigs to rise further.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Swine disease restricts the transportation of live pigsUK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Since March, the live pig industry has entered the traditional off-season for consumption.
In just one month, the main contract for live pigs has fallen by more than 8%, and the price has fallen below 27,000 yuan/ton, a record low in the past two months!UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In addition, it is worth noting that in order to prevent swine diseases from spreading from north to south, various regional departments have successively issued relevant measures to restrict the transportation of pigs.
At present, the proportion of domestic pig transfers and transportation accounts for 70%-80%.
The transfer of northern pigs to the south is a normal phenomenon.
However, due to the influence of northern swine diseases in the winter from January to February, the loss of pigs in the northern region is more serious.
Before the season arrived, many places in the South issued relevant restrictions on transportation.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The main uncertainty in the future live pig market lies in the interpretation of the two scenarios of "lack of pigs and no meat" and "lack of pigs and meat".
We expect that in the second quarter there will be a shortage of pigs and no meat in the market.
As the stock of large pigs at the breeding end bottoms out, the bottom of the pig price will gradually become clear.
The digestion of big fat pigs will gradually improve the upside-down of the fat label price, thereby stimulating Open secondary fattening downstream; on the other hand.
As the temperature rises in the later period, northern family farms and free-range households will start a large-scale replenishment behavior.
When sow replenishment and secondary fattening demand overlap, the price of live pigs is expected to be boosted.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Generally speaking, the current series of policies introduced on the market are mainly to prevent the spread of swine diseases.
We should pay attention to whether there will be recurrence of swine diseases during the rainy season from April to July in the south, and the progress of port frozen products.
UK4 China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry