The contradiction between global soybean supply and demand tends to be eased

Introduction: first, the global soybean supply and demand situation the data of may supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture shows that in 2001 / 02, the global soybean output was 184130000 tons, 620000 tons lower than that of last month, and the demand also decreased by 184140000 tons Driven by the decrease of soybean import country's opening inventory, the world's carry over inventory decreased by 100000 tons compared with last month, but reflected in the closing inventory of 2001 / 02, there was not much change 2 The supply and demand report of May on soybean supply and demand in the United States not only lowered the total domestic supply of the United States, but also increased the domestic pressing volume to 1.71 billion bushels, 20 million bushels higher than the 1.69 billion bushels in 2001 / 02 On the export side, the U.S soybean export is expected to shrink from 1.02 billion bushels in 2001 / 02 to 975 million bushels in 2002 / 03 due to the suppression of export competition from South America As reflected in the ending inventory, the ending inventory of 2002 / 03 was slightly reduced by 5 million bushels compared with that of 2001 / 02, and the average farm price in 2002 / 03 will be increased from 3.9-4.8 US dollars / bushel in the previous year to 4.0-4.9 US dollars / bushel According to the report data, the supply and demand of soybeans in the United States is relatively favorable However, considering the supply pressure in South America and China's import variables, the future market is not optimistic 3 In the supply and demand report of USDA, the soybean supply in South America did not reduce the expectation of Brazil's soybean output as most of the prediction agencies did, but maintained the estimated 43.5 million tons of last month, and did not correspondingly increase Argentina's output, which remained at the level of 29.5 million tons Now the harvest in Brazil is almost complete According to data from other forecasting agencies, Brazil's soybean production is about 40.8-42.5 million tons, which is lower than the forecast of the U.S Department of agriculture, while Brazil's actual production last year was 39 million tons Argentina, according to the U.S National Weather Service analysis, Argentina's weather in May is very conducive to soybean harvest In terms of output, according to the conservative yield of 2.59 tons / ha, Argentina's output can reach 29.8 million tons (2.59 tons / ha × 11.51 million ha), so there is still room for higher output 4 China's soybean supply and demand situation since the promulgation of the genetically modified policy in June last year, China's soybean import has been the focus of the market In this month's USDA supply and demand report, the adjustment of China's soybean data in 2001 / 2002 also focused on China's import volume: from 12 million tons last month to 11 million tons this month Affected by this, the total demand and ending inventory also decreased correspondingly, among which, the ending inventory decreased to the low level in recent years, which was 2.59 million tons, accounting for only 9% of the total domestic consumption, lower than the global level of 16% In addition, compared with USDA's expectation of China's 11 million tons of imports in 2001 / 02, the Ministry of agriculture of China estimates that it is 9 million tons According to this calculation, China's carry over inventory in 2001 / 02 will be further reduced As for 2002 / 03, according to the prediction of relevant domestic organizations, China's soybean output is 14.96 million tons, and the reduction is mainly due to the sharp reduction of soybean cultivation in Heilongjiang Province In terms of consumption, China will continue to maintain a strong momentum V the trend of supply and demand is expected to reduce soybean production in China and the United States in 2002 / 03, which has been accepted by the market To some extent, the reduction eases the pressure of global soybean supply growth In South America, USDA's optimistic expectation on Brazil's output is likely to be adjusted in the next month's report Although there is still room for Argentina's output to increase, on the whole, South America's output in 2001 / 02 has been at a relatively high level, and the possible direction of change can only be reduced Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand in the global soybean market shows signs of easing (author: Huang Zhenguang)