The collaboration of Liu Xuan's group from the Institute of Zoology reveals the important role of foreign host animal invasion in the occurrence of global animal-derived diseases

With the process of globalization, the spread of invasive alien species is increasing.

To this end, Liu Xuan's research group from the Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in conjunction with the Institute for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the University of Notre Dame and other domestic and foreign units, has systematically sorted out 161 species of 10,473 occurrences of animal-borne diseases caused by different pathogens such as viruses, bacteria, fungi and parasites, taking into account climate suitability and its changes, wildlife habitat changes, native species diversity and its decline, population density and other synergistic factors, and at different levels of disease, geography and host, it controls the bias of disease research intensity, the bias of regional epidemic prevention capability, the spatial and temporal matching bias of disease occurrence and species invasion, the sample duplication effect of the number of disease occurrences in different countries or regions, and After variable collinearity and spatial autocorrelation effects, the impact of exotic mammals, birds, amphibians and invertebrates that have widely established wild populations around the world on the occurrence of animal-borne diseases is explored (see Figure 1 for the research framework).

The study found that 161 kinds of animal-derived diseases generally have relatively rich diversity of foreign host animals, with an average of 13 kinds of foreign host animals for each disease, and the average number of diseases that can be caused by each foreign host animal is close to 6 kinds (Figure 2 ), the host groups of these diseases are mainly concentrated in mammals, but also distributed in some birds, invertebrates and a small number of amphibians and reptiles

After controlling for different covariates and random effects, exotic host animal richness plays an important role in explaining the occurrence of animal-derived diseases.

In order to further clarify which foreign host animal groups have a particularly significant impact on the occurrence of animal-derived diseases, the researchers conducted a cross-effect analysis of the disease incidence at the level of different host animal groups, and found that mammalian Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Diseases hosted by rodents, galliformes, passerines, and several groups of waterbirds in birds, and insect-hosted dipterans are most affected by the invasion of foreign host animals (Figure 4)

Subsequently, considering that the correlation analysis at the spatial scale cannot rule out the mismatch between the occurrence of disease and the invasion of alien species on the time scale (that is, the disease occurs before, and the invasion of foreign host animals occurs after), the researchers again Breakpoint regression analysis was performed on the occurrence time of the disease and the introduction time of each foreign host animal in the place where the disease occurred.

Finally, on the basis of controlling for various important factors affecting the occurrence of animal-derived diseases, this study continues to apply a generalized additive model to quantify the independent contribution of alien host animal invasion to historical disease incidence in different countries or regions, thereby evaluating the The spatial distribution of the risk of animal-borne diseases that may result from host animal invasion (Fig.

To sum up, this paper provides the world's first comprehensive study across time and space, multiple taxa, and broad pathogens, revealing the important role of alien host animal invasion in the occurrence of animal-derived diseases.

The above research results were recently published online in 　　the international comprehensive academic journal Nature Communications .

　　Paper link: https:// align="center">

Figure 1 Theoretical research framework on the relationship between animal invasion of foreign hosts and the occurrence of animal-derived diseases

Figure 2 Correspondence between alien host animal groups and major animal-derived diseases

Figure 3 The main influencing factors of animal-borne diseases and their nonlinear relationship

Figure 4 Differences in the impact of alien host animal invasion of different taxa on the occurrence of animal-derived diseases

Figure 5 Time series relationship between the occurrence of animal-derived diseases and the introduction of foreign host animals and non-host animals

Figure 6 Potential risk of animal-derived disease from alien host animal invasion