The central government sent personnel to six provinces to follow up

Introduction: first, the benefits of central tax reform policies and rising grain prices to farmers' income are being eroded by the rising price of agricultural materials dominated by chemical fertilizers; some small-scale compound fertilizer production enterprises may take measures to reduce the effective component content and reduce the cost; this year's anti-counterfeiting situation in the agricultural material Market is not optimistic "At present, the price of fertilizer has no intention of falling, and continues to rise slightly." Mr Zhao, agronomist of Guangdong agricultural material company, told the financial times By convention, farmers buy fertilizer at the end of the year so that they can use it in the next year However, due to the high price in 2003, many people delay the purchase They will have to pay a much higher cost for the upcoming Spring Festival "At present, fertilizer manufacturers and distributors have no plans to reduce their prices In 2004, it may be a foregone conclusion for farmers to buy high-priced fertilizer," Zhao said The problem of CCT may be even more serious At present, the price of agricultural means of production has been rising in an all-round way, and the sharp increase of agricultural production costs is bound to offset the efforts of the central government to increase farmers' income CCT central executives have expressed great concern about this Before the Spring Festival, the national development and Reform Commission decided to carry out a special investigation, and formed an investigation team together with the Ministry of agriculture, the National Bureau of statistics, China agricultural assets Corporation, China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, China Petroleum and Natural Gas Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, etc to Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Hunan, Sichuan, Yunnan and other six provinces in three ways The price of CCT urea has been rising since the spring of 2003 According to Mr Zhao of Guangdong agricultural materials company, the price of urea transported from the north to Guangzhou was about 1200 yuan / ton, then it went up all the way, reaching 1500 yuan / ton in May and June, and dropped to 1400 yuan / ton in July and August; after the National Day holiday, it quickly rose to 1600 yuan / ton, and the market retail price reached 1700 yuan / ton CCT "according to the law of agricultural production, in October, fertilizer market sales should have entered the off-season, and the price should have fallen." Mr Zhao, who has been engaged in chemical fertilizer business for a long time, has some doubts about this At the same time, the price of potash fertilizer per ton also increased by about 300 yuan, reaching 1400-1500 yuan The price of potash fertilizer has been stable at about 1150 yuan in recent three or four years With the development of CCT, diammonium phosphate has been stable at about 1750 yuan / ton in the last year, rising to about 2050 yuan / ton in the middle of November last year Industry insiders believe that "the possibility of manufacturers following the trend cannot be ruled out" The price of basic raw materials for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer also increased by the same range CCT Financial Times learned from Shaanxi Provincial Department of agriculture that the price increase of chemical fertilizer in Shaanxi is basically the same as that in Guangdong In Sichuan Province, the price of urea began to rise from August and September last year, and the price has increased from 1250 yuan / ton to 1600 yuan / ton now According to another information of CCT, the average growth rate of all kinds of fertilizers in Fujian is 13.4%, and the prices of large agricultural materials such as nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and agricultural film in Xinjiang are 10% - 20% higher than that of the same period last year; the import price of urea per ton is 1360 yuan, 200 yuan higher than that of the same period last year, and the CIF price of imported diammonium phosphate per ton is 2400 yuan, 300 yuan higher than that of the same period last year, and the price of agricultural film is also increased from 1200 yuan last year to 1380 yuan Similarly, the price of chemical fertilizer in the northeast and North China increased by a similar range The market fluctuation of CCT on the way by the central investigation group of CCT has aroused great concern of the central government and the State Council, which requires relevant departments to study and formulate macro-control policies, stabilize the price of chemical fertilizer and protect the interests of farmers Seven ministries and commissions, including the national development and Reform Commission, have jointly requested preferential policies for power consumption in fertilizer production and railway transportation, and since January 1 this year, the VAT on urea production will be collected first and then returned 50% It is understood that the VAT return policy will bring about 50 yuan / ton (average level) of income to urea enterprises On January 2, CCT held a urea price survey meeting for some small-scale nitrogen fertilizer enterprises held by China nitrogen fertilizer industry association to discuss how to increase the input of domestic small-scale urea enterprises to increase production capacity CCT but after the Spring Festival, the market price of fertilizer still hasn't fallen, and with the coming of the peak period of fertilizer use, there is a trend of small increase Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice to limit the ex factory price and floating range of urea, the main variety in the fertilizer market However, administrative intervention may not have an ideal effect "With the expectation that prices will continue to rise, price limit may cause manufacturers to continue to increase inventory, which will aggravate the price rise of urea market." One fertilizer market person said According to CCT, the national development and Reform Commission's survey of six provinces and cities includes: demand of chemical fertilizer, source of chemical fertilizer resources, current situation of chemical fertilizer industry, supply of raw materials for chemical fertilizer production, sales and inventory of chemical fertilizer, transformation and development of chemical fertilizer enterprises in recent years, etc The focus is on the supply of raw materials for chemical fertilizer production, including the sources of raw materials for main chemical fertilizer products, the average prices of coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, ore and other changes in recent years, as well as the implementation of preferential policies for electricity price and freight rate CCT questions the reasons why cost drives the price rise of chemical fertilizer, which has been explained by various circles Based on the opinions of manufacturers, industry associations, dealers and agricultural service departments, the Financial Times found that the "cross influence" originated from various factors Cct For example, the nationwide rectification of small coal mines has led to a relative decline in the supply of coal and a tight price rise of coal goods; a gap in power supply has led to an increase in the demand for coal for thermal power and a rise in the price of coal power at the same time; the rise in the price of coal power and the power rationing of fertilizer production in some regions have led to a rise in the cost of urea and a decline in production capacity; at the end of last year, the nationwide strict inspection of road transport overload has led to urea production enterprises The arrival of coal is insufficient; the first reason is to ensure the arrangement of coal transportation, and occupy part of the arrangement of fertilizer transportation; the end of the year is the season for farmers to store fertilizer in winter, which also leads to the tight supply of fertilizer market and the rising price Some small nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturers in CCT think that the main reasons for the price increase are: excessive tax; tight supply of raw materials, rapid increase of coal price, excessive unreasonable costs in the procurement process; and rising electricity price CCT, however, has doubts about the explanation of "cost driven urea price rise" He introduced that a urea production enterprise under Sinopec, with an annual output of 1 million tons, converted coal as raw material to natural gas raw material for urea production last year, with a sharp drop in production costs, but their urea prices also rose at the same time; although the natural gas prices also rose, the range was not large At present, many urea production enterprises in Sichuan Province and Hainan Province convert coal raw materials to natural gas, and the cost should be greatly reduced Since the second half of 2003, some urea production enterprises have increased their employees' wages and awards by a large margin, "the year-end bonus of last year is several times higher than that of previous years," CCT said to the financial times, according to a person from a Sinopec subsidiary In addition to the "cost pull theory", CCT further analyzed that the price of grain and other agricultural products increased, which also provided psychological support for the price increase of chemical fertilizer In addition, "changes in the way fertilizer is distributed have also driven up prices." In the past, the stock of urea products was mostly provided by dealers, and the manufacturers basically did not store fertilizer But now manufacturers store a large number of fertilizer, requiring dealers to purchase cash, resulting in a decrease in the stock of goods in the market Therefore, the price increase of chemical fertilizer "does not exclude the factors that the manufacturers intend to hype" CCT "the rising price of fertilizer in the international market and the rapid growth of China's fertilizer export are also important factors." According to Mr Zhao of Guangdong Province, the rise in the prices of raw materials, energy and international ocean transportation in the international market has contributed to the rise in domestic fertilizer prices CCT hedges the prospect of increasing farmers' income "The increase of grain price brings farmers much less income than the increase of fertilizer price, and the increase of grain price is only restorative." According to Mr Deng, Sichuan mainly produces rice, but the price of rice has only increased a few cents (from 0.48 yuan / jin to about 0.53 yuan / Jin) because most of the farmers grow ordinary varieties Although the processed rice increased by nearly 0.20 yuan / Jin, "the profit was taken by the processing industry" High quality hybrid rice is the major price increase, but the planting area in Sichuan is too small CCT Guangdong Province also focuses on rice cultivation Last year, the purchase price of rice market increased from 40 yuan per load to 60 yuan Based on the production of 900 Jin per mu, the income per mu is increased by about 180 yuan In spite of this, the increase in the price of chemical fertilizer will eat up most of the income increase of farmers, and because the price in the past is seriously low, the actual net income of farmers' grain production has not increased significantly According to an official from the Agriculture Department of Shaanxi Province, the price of wheat in Guanzhong Plain has increased from 0.50/jin last year to about 0.70 yuan / Jin now If the yield per mu is 800 Jin, the income per mu will increase by 160 yuan "However, after deducting the factor of increasing the price of agricultural materials, the income increase may have been negligible." Market participants around CCT generally predict that fertilizer prices may rise after the Spring Festival, and urea retail sales may exceed 1850 yuan / ton According to the survey of Guangdong, Sichuan and Shaanxi, in addition to the price of chemical fertilizer, the price of agricultural diesel, agricultural film, pesticide and other agricultural materials also rose in an all-round way The rural tax reform that CCT is pushing forward nationwide has brought benefits to farmers Farmers in Guangdong Province reduced the tax burden by more than 60 yuan per person, while in Sichuan Province, the tax burden dropped from more than 50 yuan (1 piece of farmland) to more than 30 yuan; in Shanxi Province, the tax burden dropped from more than 40 yuan per mu to 19 yuan But the burden that the policy reduces for the farmer now changes the way, again pressed on the farmer Can CCT farmers accept such a price? "There is no doubt that the increase in price will have a great impact on sales," said a head of the compound fertilizer plant, who worried about market sales At the same time, an official from the Shaanxi Provincial Department of agriculture pointed out that some farmers who do not take planting as their main source of income may reduce the amount of fertilizer application without considering whether they have achieved enough fertility, "which will inevitably affect the yield." CCT, however, a fertilizer dealer in Sichuan Province is not pessimistic about the sales: "in 1996, the urea rose to 2500 yuan / ton, and they still sell it?" Some small-scale compound fertilizer manufacturers of CCT are worried that raising prices will affect sales "We dare not raise the price a lot, but we will reduce the cost by reducing the content of active ingredients," a person in charge told reporters At the same time, some inferior fertilizers with inferior quality and low price may take the opportunity to flood the market A grass-roots agricultural law enforcement officials exclaimed: "this year, the situation of cracking down on fake agricultural materials market is not optimistic!" Cct