The Butterfly Effect!

 　　At present, there are about 26 million pig farms in my country, of which:QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　There are about 4,000 large-scale pig farms with an annual output of more than 10,000 heads;QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Approximately 187,000 households with an annual output of more than 500 heads;QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　There are 25.
8 million small and medium-sized retail households with an annual volume of less than 500 headsQAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In other words, small and medium-sized farmers still account for more than 99% of the number of pig farms
.

　　Recently, there has been a lot of news about pork
.
According to reports, a farmer in Sichuan made a loss of 700 or 800 yuan for selling a pig, and the local area has started to store 5,000 tons of frozen pork at the provincial level
.
Relevant departments said that the second round of central reserve frozen pork procurement and storage will start soon, with a longer duration and a larger scale
.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the third week of September, the national average price per kilogram of live pigs was 13.
45 yuan, down 63.
4% year-on-year; the national average price of pork was 23.
25 yuan/kg, down 58.
2% year-on-year
.
In the second half of this pig cycle, it is necessary to calmly analyze how to better respond
.
QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, the production capacity of live pigs has been fully recovered, and the pork supply is showing signs of surplus.
However, the production of live pigs is still growing inertially, and the price is still falling in the peak season of traditional consumption
.
From February to August, the average monthly growth rate of newborn piglets in large-scale pig farms was 2.
5%.
According to the production cycle, the number of pigs for slaughter from September this year to February next year will continue to increase
.
QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Pork production and price fluctuations are highly concerned by the whole society because of the large elasticity of pork supply and small elasticity of demand.
At the same time, it has a large proportion of meat consumption and price has a large impact on CPI trends
.
If the supply of live pigs is a little bit more or less, the corresponding price fluctuation range is very obvious
.
At present, small and medium-sized farmers with an annual output of less than 500 pigs still account for more than 99% of the number of pig farms
.
Calculated based on the average household supply of 20 heads, if each household raises one head more or one less head, the supply will fluctuate by about 5%
.
According to estimates, for every 1% fluctuation in supply, the price fluctuates by about 7%
.
In addition, the growth cycle of live pigs is long, and once the fluctuating trend is established, it is difficult to change halfway
.
It can be seen that the fluctuation of pork prices naturally has a magnifying effect
.
QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　To deal with the second half of the pig cycle, it is necessary to focus on early warning and control the bottom line
.
Relevant departments have made clear that the goal of stabilizing the production and supply of live pigs is to stabilize the national annual output of pork at about 55 million tons
.
The recent rounds of pig cycles have shown that the supply of live pigs depends on a solid basic production capacity
.
Propagating sows are the "master switch" for pork supply.
As long as the number of breeding sows is kept within a reasonable range, piglet production will be guaranteed and pork supply will be generally stable
.
It is necessary to divide the three control areas of green, yellow and red according to the different conditions of breeding sows, and clarify the corresponding measures
.
In August, the national stock of reproductive sows was close to 110% of the normal stock, and corresponding control measures are being initiated
.
QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　To deal with the second half of the pig cycle, we must comprehensively improve the quality of the industry
.
In the whole pig industry chain, the breeding link has been in a weak position for a long time, and the risk is the greatest
.
Different from the market risk in the trafficking and processing links, the aquaculture link also bears the rigid increase in cost and the risk of animal diseases
.
In the end, when the price of meat fell, the price of pigs fell even more for pig farmers, while the price of pigs rose less when the price of meat rose
.
Therefore, when the market is sluggish, the pig industry must pay more attention to pig farm management and disease prevention and control
.
At present, pig farmers should choose to slow down the pace of production, optimize the stock of sows, eliminate low-yielding sows, and increase the proportion of high-end pork products
.
At the same time, the industrial chain will be extended downstream, and the integrated development of pig breeding, slaughtering, processing and sales will be deployed
.
QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　To deal with the second half of the pig cycle, it is necessary to maintain the stability of long-term support policies
.
The pig cycle is common in major pig raising countries in the world.
This is a manifestation of the market rules for resource allocation to the pig industry, but the cycle frequency, severity, and response methods are different
.
For our country, it is possible to lengthen the cycle, ease the peaks and valleys, and try to avoid large fluctuations in production and price fluctuations
.
The ratio of large-scale pig breeding has increased from 46.
9% in 2017 to 57.
1% in 2020.
Multi-sectoral breakthroughs have solved the industry’s many years of pain points in land, environmental protection, and capital
.
However, the more difficult it is for pig farmers, the more it is necessary to maintain the stability of long-term support policies such as land use, environmental impact assessment, and finance, so as to prevent pig farmers from over-eliminating sows and damaging basic production capacity
.
QAQ China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry