The average head loss was 611.49 yuan, and the price of pigs fell by more than 60%!

 　　With the gradual recovery of live pig production capacity, pork prices have been falling since the beginning of this year, and the current price has dropped by 60% from the higher point
.
This has also brought tremendous pressure to pig-raising companies, and the current pig-raising industry is generally losing money
.
From the perspective of listed pig companies, the performance of the first half of the year has all declined year-on-year.
The major pig farmers, except for "Pigweed" Muyuan shares, have recorded losses to varying degrees
.
The stock price of pork stocks also fell all the way, with the biggest drop of more than 70%
.
3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The analysis believes that in the second half of the year, the number of slaughters in pig companies may continue to increase, and consumption remains uncertain under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention, and the industry structure is temporarily difficult to change
.
3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　01The production of live pigs was restored half a year ahead of schedule, but the price of pigs began to turn around half a year ahead of schedule3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the second half of 2018, with the spread of African swine fever, a cycle of super pigs started
.
According to data from China Pig.
com, the price of live pigs (outside three yuan) bottomed out at the beginning of 2019 and rose all the way, from around 11 yuan/kg to a high of 41 yuan/kg at the end of the year
.
During the period, a series of policies to promote the recovery of live pig production capacity and market supply were intensively introduced, and the production capacity of live pigs gradually recovered, and the price of pigs subsequently maintained a high and fluctuating pattern in 2020
.
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　　Entering 2021, the production of live pigs will further recover.
Ma Youxiang stated at the press conference on September 1 that the current production capacity of live pigs has been fully restored.
At the end of July, the number of reproductive sows and pigs in the country has recovered to 101.
6% and 100.
2 at the end of 2017, respectively.
%, to achieve the recovery target six months in advance
.
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　　Unlike the production capacity of live pigs, pig prices have been declining since the beginning of this year
.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the first half of this year, the number of live pigs for slaughter increased by 34% year-on-year.
At the end of the first half of the year, the stock of reproductive sows at fixed-point monitoring increased by 30% year-on-year, and the stock of live pigs increased by 29% year-on-year
.
The increase in supply pushed prices down sharply.
The price of live pigs fell from the high of 36 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to the lowest point of 12 yuan/kg in June, a decline of more than 60%, and once fell back to March 2019.
The current round of pig cycle began to rise.
The previous low
.
The pig price rebounded briefly in July, but quickly returned to the downward trend.
As of September 2, the latest price was 14.
18 yuan/kg
.
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　　The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the national pig feed price ratio was 4.
74 in the fourth week of August, a decrease of 1.
46% from the previous month
.
Based on the current price and cost, the average loss of pig breeding will be 611.
49 yuan in the future
.
In the 4th week of August, domestic pig prices showed a fluctuating downward trend
.
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　　02Pig price is still in the down cycle3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Since August, pork prices have once again entered a downward fluctuation range
.
" said Liu Tong, manager of the Statistics Department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market
.
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　　On August 27, the average wholesale price of white striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi was 17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.
86% from 17.
5 yuan/kg on August 13, and a 9.
33% decrease from 18.
75 yuan/kg on July 20
.
3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Recently, the price of pork in the Beijing market has changed-the average wholesale price jumped from 17.
25 yuan/kg on August 15 to 20 yuan/kg on the 16th, and the price increased by 15.
94% in just one day
.
3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The reason is that as the price of meat is declining, the slaughterhouses are bidding against each other, causing the price of meat to continue to decline
.
As a result, the slaughter plant reduced the volume and insured the price, resulting in a shortage of demand during the day
.
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　　Liu Tong said that this price increase is not trending
.
Judging from the overall performance of recent pork prices, the downward volatility is a trend
.
However, the decline in pork prices is not entirely due to overcapacity
.
At present, the production capacity of live pigs has returned to the level of the same period of normal year, but the demand has not yet fully recovered
.
If demand continues to recover after September, there is limited room for meat prices to continue to fall
.
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　　Zhu Zengyong told reporters that it is too early to talk about the upward cycle
.
Since June 2003, China's live pig price fluctuations have gone through 4 complete cycles, each cycle lasting several years
.
According to the law, the price of pigs usually rebounds seasonally before the peak consumption season
.
However, the current backlog of imported frozen pork on the market is not small, which will restrain the rise of pig prices to a certain extent, and the rebound of pig prices will not be too high
.
In general, the price of pigs will be in a downward channel on the general trend in the next year, but at consumption nodes such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the price may still rebound
.
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　　03 Phased up factors have increased, but the price of pigs is still hard to say has bottomed out3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the price of live pigs has been operating at a low level recently, and the price of pigs and grains is between 5:1 and 6:1, which is in the second warning range of excessive decline
.
In accordance with the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Preplan for the Pork Market to Guarantee Supply and Stabilize Prices", the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Commerce will work with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the State Administration of Market Supervision and other relevant departments to reactivate the central pork reserve collection during the year.
It will supervise and guide all localities to increase their work, promptly carry out local pork reserve purchasing and storage, and link up and down to form a "supporting market" joint force to effectively ensure the smooth operation of the live pig market
.
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　　Boosted by the prosperous consumption of purchasing and storage policies, there is a high probability that the market will tend to rise but not fall in the near future.
However, due to factors such as the recovery of industry production capacity, sufficient pork inventory, and better sentiment at the farming end, most of the analysis is about the market outlook.
Still pessimistic
.
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　　AVIC Securities believes that the repeated African swine fever epidemic and the state's phased purchase and storage plan have limited impact on the overall supply and demand.
At present, the stock of reproductive sows is still at a high level, and the supply of pork will remain high inertially, and it is difficult to see a significant increase in the demand side.
At present, the price of pigs is still hard to say has bottomed out
.
However, it believes that in the short term, with the arrival of the school season and the end-of-year stocking season, the demand side is expected to improve marginally.
At the same time, policies will be implemented to alleviate the cyclical fluctuations of live pigs.
Certainly support
.
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　　CICC stated that the slaughter volume of pig companies may continue to increase, while the stock of frozen pork is relatively sufficient.
In the context of a high probability of increased supply, the recovery on the demand side directly affects the price trend
.
Although the fourth quarter is the peak season for live pig consumption, there is still greater uncertainty on the demand side.
The quarterly average price of live pigs for slaughter will be lowered from 23 yuan/kg to 19 yuan/kg
.
”3sp China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Dongxing Securities stated that the supply of live pigs in the second half of the year will continue to recover, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the sentiment of farmers to slaughter the slaughter and the improvement of terminal consumer demand
.
At the corporate level, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are still the core theme.
In the second half of the year, as costs fall, corporate profitability is expected to be restored
.
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