The actual expenditure of medical insurance per capita in the United States is on the decline track

Source: on September 11, 2014, CBO predicted that if the growth pattern continues, it will be a rare phenomenon in the history of medical insurance in the United States In general, the growth of per capita health care expenditure is more rapid than the overall economic growth Health economists call the difference between the two "cost growth excess" The latest data shows that the US medical insurance expenditure is lower than the "experts" predicted a few years ago, and even the per capita medical insurance expenditure has a sharp downward trend (Figure 1) Figure 1 trend data source of per capita health care expenditure in the United States: the Congressional Budget Office predicts that if the growth pattern continues, it will be a rare phenomenon in the history of health insurance in the United States In general, the growth of per capita health care expenditure is more rapid than the overall economic growth Health economists call the difference between the two "cost growth excess" This year, U.S health insurance costs about $11200 per person 65 and older or disabled By contrast, three years ago it was $12000 (excluding inflation) The CBO forecasts that the figure will be below $11000 by 2017, and spending will be below this year's level for the next six years As the budget office generally does not adjust data based on inflation, the rigor of data related to health insurance is inevitably questioned When it comes to future expenditures, the figures provided by the budget office tend to mislead researchers, because the figures show that the increase in costs may only be due to inflation If we adjust the data, health care spending will not rise, and there is no sign of rising in the future In general, the growth rate of per capita health care expenditure is often greater than the overall economic growth rate Coincidentally, the latest negative growth in per capita health care spending occurred in the late 1990s, as Congress slashed health care spending for three years Unlike the previous time, the Budget Office expects the negative growth pattern presented this year to last longer (Figure 2) Figure 2 data source of annual growth rate of per capita medical expenditure: the negative growth mode dominated by the national budget office can be divided into two main factors First, the baby boomers have entered the health insurance program In the long run, it will cause financial problems of medical insurance, because the number of people in need of medicine has increased dramatically At present, the baby boomers are still relatively young and healthy, and their participation makes the health care team part younger The second factor may come as a surprise: in the past few years, Medicare patients have rarely used expensive medical services, especially hospital care and prescription drugs The budget office is therefore convinced that the negative growth pattern will last longer Curbing the growth of average health care spending will help the overall health insurance plan spending to enter a slow growth path in the next decade, although more and more baby boomers are reaching retirement age to be included in the plan Health insurance shows moderate growth, with spending cuts equivalent to more than $715 billion in 10-year deposits over the past four years alone, dwarfing other deficit reduction programs Figure 3 trend data source of total health care expenditure in the United States from 2006 to 2024: Although the per capita real health care expenditure in the progressive budget office is decreasing, with the addition of the baby boomers, the total health care expenditure in the United States will continue to increase, but the growth trend is more gentle than before (Figure 3) No one can predict the future of this trend For example, the slowdown in growth in the late 1990s did not last long No matter ordinary people who just want to know what happened or analysts who are good at it, there is no denying that this remarkable change, and just a few years ago, people may not understand the prediction of per capita health insurance spending decline at all Remember the debate between the Obama healthcare reform act and the Paul Ryan healthcare voucher program? Don't forget that their goal is to keep the annual cost over growth at about 1% The population will continue to put pressure on the health insurance plan, and the slow growth of per capita expenditure reduces the pressure on the health insurance budget Based on historical data, the U.S budget office believes that the growth of excess expenditure accounts for about half of the growth of health insurance expenditure, and the aging population accounts for the other half Now, the proportion of the former has decreased a lot