Ten day report of soybean market in mid July

Introduction: Production Meteorology: Northeast soil moisture is suitable, soybean growth is good Since June, large-scale and long-term rainfall has continued to occur in most areas of northern China, alleviating the drought in the main soybean producing areas in the middle and late May In the middle of July, most of the spring soybeans in Northeast China and Northern Shaanxi are in the period of side branch formation, Jiangxi spring soybeans are in the period of podding, and the Summer Soybeans in southern Shaanxi, northern North China, Huanghuai and Jianghuai are in the third true leaf period The soil relative humidity of soybean production area in Northeast China is high, which is suitable for crop growth and development Because the soil moisture in Northeast China is suitable for soybean growth, most of the soybean seedlings are second-class seedlings with good growth Domestic market: in the first half of this year, the price of domestic soybeans rose by a large margin In the first half of this year, affected by the implementation of the genetically modified policy, the price of domestic soybeans rose significantly From January to June, the price of medium-sized oil soybeans in the production and marketing areas rose by as much as 700 yuan / ton On January 7, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the detailed rules for the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, including the administrative measures for the safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the administrative measures for the labeling of agricultural genetically modified organisms, and the administrative measures for the import safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms The Measures stipulate that genetically modified soybean products that arrive at Chinese coastal ports after March 20 must have agricultural genetically modified organisms safety certificates and import licenses In the next two days, the soybean futures price of Dachang appeared to rise and fall for two consecutive days The price of domestic medium-sized soybeans in Harbin increased from 1420-1500 yuan / ton at the beginning of January to 1760-1800 yuan / ton at the end of February On March 11, China's Ministry of Agriculture announced the interim measures management procedures for the import of genetically modified agricultural products The application date of GM safety certificate will be reduced from 270 to 30, and the validity period of interim measures will be up to December 20, 2002 The interim measure confirms market rumors that China will reduce the approval date of genetically modified agricultural products During this period, domestic soybean purchasers slowed down the purchase speed of soybeans, and the price of domestic soybeans dropped slightly The purchase price of platforms in Jixian District of Heilongjiang Province dropped to 1640-1660 yuan / ton, and that in Harbin District dropped to 1740-1760 yuan / ton Since then, in March, the price of domestic soybeans has risen steadily In the first ten days of April, the supply quantity of soybean in Northeast China began to decline, and the price continued to rise steadily However, due to the full exemption of railway construction fund, the railway freight decreased, and the delivery price of domestic soybean in Shandong Province remained stable On May 8, the Ministry of Health announced the measures for the health management of genetically modified food adopted on December 11, 2001 According to the measures, before the importers of genetically modified products can sell their products to China, they must obtain the evaluation and verification of food safety and nutrition quality from the Ministry of health, and the measures will be implemented on July 1 New variables have been added to soybean import after GM safety certificate, labeling and import inspection The market's concern about the expectation of imported soybeans has led to a rapid rise in the price of domestic soybeans In early May, the delivery price of soybean platform in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province rose to 1980-2000 yuan / ton In the middle of June, China's first soybean imports resumed after the implementation of the agricultural genetically modified policy on March 20 By the end of June, the port had imported about 780000 tons of soybeans by 13.5 ships At the end of June, soybean prices in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province rose to 2040-2060 yuan / ton Due to the decline of soybean supply, the market is basically free of price In the first half of the year, the squeeze rate of insufficient soybean supply decreased Since the implementation of the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms on March 20, the purchase price of domestic soybean has been rising all the way, the supply of oil plants has been tightening, the benefit of soybean squeezing has been declining, and small and medium-sized crushing plants have been shut down In the middle of May, the actual operating rate of soybean factories in Heilongjiang, Shandong and Jiangsu regions with relatively concentrated crushing capacity dropped to 20% In the middle of June, soybean import recovered Except for the rapid recovery of soybean crushing rate in some large oil plants, the operating rate of small and medium-sized soybean crushing plants was less than 10% Analysis of soybean squeezing benefit in the middle of May: Harbin, Heilongjiang: squeezing benefit (yuan / ton, not included in the tax cost) = squeezing income - squeezing cost = 1760 (soybean meal price) × 0.82 + 4630 (crude soybean oil price) × 0.15-2030 (soybean entry price) - 120 (squeezing expense) = - 12.3 (yuan / ton) Linqing, Shandong: squeezing benefit (yuan / ton, not included in tax cost) = squeezing income - squeezing cost = 1950 (soybean meal price) * 0.82 + 4420 (crude soybean oil price) * 0.15-2150 (soybean entry price) - 120 (squeezing expense) = - 8 (yuan / ton) at the end of June: Harbin, Heilongjiang Province: squeezing benefit (yuan / ton, not included in tax cost) = squeezing income - squeezing cost = 1740 (soybean meal price) × 0.82 + 4950 (crude soybean oil price) × 0.15-2040 (soybean entry price) - 120 (squeezing cost) = 9.3 (yuan / ton) Linqing, Shandong: squeezing benefit (yuan / ton, not included in tax cost) = squeezing income - squeezing cost = 1730 (soybean meal price) * 0.82 + 4680 (crude soybean oil price) * 0.15-2140 (soybean entry price) - 120 (squeezing expense) = - 139.4 (yuan / ton) In June, compared with may, the squeezing benefits of domestic soybeans in the production area increased, but the squeezing benefits of domestic soybeans in the marketing area decreased significantly Insufficient supply of soybean and poor efficiency of the crushing plant are the main reasons for the insufficient operation of the crushing plant Agreement on yellow soybean No.1 futures listed in Dashang On March 12, Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a notice on Amending the soybean futures contract The main contents are as follows: listed soybean No.1 futures contract, and listed and traded 0303, 0305 and 0307 soybean No In January, it was 0301 contract; yellow soybeans No 1 contract added aging index, which clearly stipulated that aging soybeans are not allowed to be delivered In addition, the delivery regulations for transfer genes and imported soybeans in soybean futures contracts before the 0301 contract (including the 0301 contract) which has been listed for trading by the Dalian Institute of commerce are as follows: for soybeans imported before March 1, 2002 (excluding March 1), the seller's owner shall submit the customs import certificate, import contract and relevant customs declaration documents; for soybeans imported after March 1, 2002, the Seller shall submit the Quarantine License ”, import contract and relevant customs declaration documents; for genetically modified soybeans, the seller's owner shall submit the "agricultural genetically modified organisms safety certificate" and relevant identification approval and filing materials issued by the Ministry of agriculture; for genetically modified soybeans signed before June 6, 2001 and imported before March 20, 2002 (excluding March 20), the "safety certificate" is not required Since March 20, China began to implement the regulations and rules on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the delivery of genetically modified soybeans by listing yellow soybeans No In addition, due to the high position of Dalian soybean futures in the near future, it has a positive significance to resolve the transaction risk At the end of the first half of this year, a large amount of precipitation occurred in the soybean registered warehouse receipts According to the Dalian Commodity Exchange registered warehouse receipts report, June 28, the number of soybean registered warehouse receipts reached 80485 Although there is no market for the purchase of domestic soybeans at present, the cost of Dalian soybeans is too high and delivery is slow In May, the large delivery and slow delivery of soybean futures are the main reasons for the large precipitation of soybean warehouse receipts in Dalian In May, the closing price of soybeans reached 2244 yuan / ton on the last trading day, and the contract delivery volume reached a record 760000 tons in May Due to the high cost, delivery soybean did not enter the spot market directly and quickly, making up for the shortage of soybean supply in the spot market, but precipitated into a registered warehouse receipt, which became the main force to oppress the soybean market On September 26, soybean contracts fell to 2062 yuan / ton, the lowest level in nearly a month In the first half of this year, the price of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil fluctuated and rose At the end of February, affected by the export tax rebate policy, soybean meal prices rose In March, the soybean meal price was stable At the end of April, due to the decline of domestic soybean supply, the operating rate of the crushing plant gradually decreased, and the price of domestic soybean meal increased significantly At the beginning of May, the factory quotation of medium soybean meal in Harbin increased to 1760 yuan / ton, the price of soybean meal in Shandong increased to 1940 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean meal in Guangzhou increased to 2060 yuan / ton As the development of the breeding industry is hindered and the demand for soybean meal drops, the price of soybean meal in East China and South China fell in June In the first half of July, influenced by the high soybean price, the price of domestic soybean meal recovered again, but it was far from the highest price in May At the end of the first half of this year, compared with the initial stage, the price of domestic soybean meal increased by 200-300 yuan / ton Similar to the price trend of domestic soybean meal, the price of domestic soybean oil in the first half of the year also fluctuated significantly From January to March, the price of domestic soybean oil is stable The ex factory price of grade II crude soybean oil in Harbin is about 4450 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 4600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 4900 yuan / ton In April, affected by the off-season of soybean oil sales and the issuance of soybean oil quotas, soybean oil prices fell, down about 120-200 yuan / ton In May, the price of soybean oil in Northeast China rose, while that in East China and South China continued to fall The price difference of soybean oil in Northeast China, East China and South China was inverted In June, soybean oil prices rose in East and South China due to rising soybean prices and insufficient supply of domestic soybean oil In the middle of July, the ex factory price of grade II crude soybean oil in Harbin is about 5600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 5100 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 4800 yuan / ton Soybean imports began to return to normal in the first ten days of June In the beginning of June, a ship of South American soybeans berthed in Chiwan Port of Shenzhen began to unload after completing the relevant procedures required by the quality inspection in the following days, marking the first batch of soybean imports resumed since the implementation of the agricultural genetically modified policy on March 20 in China As of July 10, since the first ten days of June, China's port soybean imports have reached 20 ships, totaling about 1.15 million tons So far, after the implementation of the transgenic policy, China's soybean import has basically returned to normal According to market news, AQSIQ issued a total of about 45 CIQs to large and medium-sized domestic traders and crushing factories in batches In order to solve the problem of insufficient supply of raw materials for soybean pressing, AQSIQ accelerated the issuance of quality inspection certificates in the first and middle of June In the middle and late June, the importers began to distribute at the port price of 2100 yuan / ton in addition to the vast majority of imported soybeans for their own use In the first ten days of July, with the increase of soybean price in the international market, the importer increased the distribution price of imported South American soybean to 2200 yuan / ton Due to the influence of the genetically modified policy, the import of soybean from January to may in China decreased significantly compared with the same period last year According to customs statistics, China imported 2.85 million tons of soybeans from January to may, a decrease of 37.7% over the same period last year; While the number of soybean imports decreased, the total number of edible vegetable oil imports increased over the same period last year From January to may, China imported 750000 tons of edible vegetable oil, an increase of 15% over the same period last year Among them, soybean oil is 70000 tons, an increase of 63.7% over the same period of last year; palm oil is 450000 tons, a decrease of 13.8% over the same period of last year; rapeseed oil is 10000 tons, a decrease of 63.7% over the same period of last year