-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
-
Cosmetic Ingredient
- Water Treatment Chemical
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
;
From Dongpo meat to lion's head, pork is an important food on the table, and China is also the world's largest pork producer and consumer
.
Recently, the value of pigs has been rising
.
Those who often go to the vegetable market will find that the average price of pork has risen from 16 yuan per catty to 20 yuan
per catty.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from October 3 to October 9, 2022, the average purchase price of pigs in designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size nationwide was 25.
74 yuan/kg, up 4.
0% month-on-month and 102.
4%
year-on-year.
The average ex-factory price of white strip meat was 32.
82 yuan/kg, up 3.
9% month-on-month and 88.
3%
year-on-year.
That is to say, the money for buying two pigs last year can only buy one pig this year, and affected by this, the breeding sector, which is expected to grow significantly, has also become the "star"
of market attention.
So, where has the current pig cycle progressed? How will it evolve in the future? Let's find out
together.
The pig cycle of "chasing the rise and killing the fall"
The pig cycle is similar to a "strange circle" of chasing up and killing, which conforms to the most basic supply and demand relationship of economics: supply exceeds demand, and prices rise; Supply exceeds demand and prices fall.
When the pig price rises to a high level, enterprises and farmers will increase investment and expand the number of breeding out of the psychology of making money, which is similar to our "chasing up"
in the stock market.
The supply has increased, but everyone's purchase demand has not expanded, a large number of pork concentrated listing, will cause prices to fall, enterprises and farmers profit decline, and even loss, due to the high cost of continuing to raise sows, many farmers can only helplessly deal with, eliminate sows, this stage is similar to our "killing and falling"
in the stock market.
Cycle after cycle, a pig cycle
of "high prices hurt the people, low prices hurt farmers" was formed.
How long does a pig cycle take?
Different from the rapid transaction of stock prices, because the expansion, reduction, breeding and fattening of pigs take time, specifically, it can be roughly divided into four stages
.
Among them, it takes
about 8 months for female piglets to develop to be able to breed sows.
It takes about 10 months for piglets to be slaughtered from conception to slaughter, so a complete pig cycle often takes 4-5 years
Some people may ask, when the price of pork is low, I continue to raise it and can't sell it, and wait until the price rises before selling? Of course you can, but it's a loss
.
Unlike stocks, there is no cost to holding stocks, and you can "carry it" if you buy and lose.
The cost of pig breeding is very high, according to the annual report of the relevant listed companies estimates, in the cost structure of pig breeding, feed costs account for 55%, labor costs account for 15%, continuous feeding, the breeding cost of industry leading companies is 16-20 yuan per kilogram, the cost of free-range farmers may be higher, if the continuous breeding is not out of the slaughter, the final result can only be the more the more the more the loss
.
Those things in the pig cycle in history
Looking back at the pig price performance since 2006, starting from the continuous upward trend of pig prices, different pig cycles have some differences
in the increase in pig prices, upside time, and downward time.
From the perspective of cycle length, because pigs have their own growth cycle, the duration of each "pig cycle" is about 4 years, of which the average time of price increase is 20 months, and the average time of decline is 27 months
.
It is worth noting that not only supply and demand cause the pig cycle, but also diseases can greatly affect the course of the
pig cycle.
The first epidemic of PRRS in 2006, the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in 2010, and the spread of African swine fever in 2018 may cause a pork supply gap, or accelerate the production capacity zoning at the bottom of the industry, which directly affects pig prices
.
From the price point of view before the opening of each round of "pig cycle", the pig price will have a "second bottom" phenomenon, from the price change range, it is related to the extent of sow removal, such as the African swine fever in 2019 caused the sow inventory to fall to the low level since 2009, and the corresponding price increase is also the largest in the
previous cycle.
Where are we in the pig cycle now?
Open source securities research report believes that first of all, in this round of pig cycle, the pace of price increases has not deviated from the law of fluctuations during the year, and is still in line with the law of seasonal consumption; Secondly, in the rhythm of capacity adjustment, the supply efficiency decreases, and the capacity is replenished cautiously, which jointly contributes to the cycle length; Third, the average profit of the breeding head in the industry has improved significantly, and the change in production capacity is positively correlated with the average profit of the head; Finally, the hesitation of industry capacity replenishment may become the main reason for the length of
the cycle.
The agency believes that the pig cycle layout has shifted to the stage of average profit and cycle profit cashing, and it is expected that the law of pig price highs and the duration of the boom stage are in line with the conventional pig cycle
.
The short-term industry contradictions are mainly reflected in the increase in the enthusiasm of secondary fattening after the Mid-Autumn Festival and the continuous sluggish restocking behavior
of the industry.
Wu Yue, director of large consumption research of Harvest Fund, said that the continuous de-industrialization + deep loss of the industry before the second quarter of this year has laid the foundation for the upward trend of pig prices, and under the background of low expectations in the future, pig prices are still expected to exceed expectations, and high breeding profits can be expected
.
Under the background that the reduction of production capacity has guided the reduction of supply, the weight multiplier has limited increase in the amount of supply, and the consumption season is superimposed on the peak consumption season, and the pig price in the fourth quarter should not be pessimistic; In addition, the current valuation of pig stocks has retraced to the expected reversal starting level of the first stage of the cycle, the valuation margin of safety is high, and the fact of high pig prices is expected to realize the performance
.
Wu Yue believes that the pig price has risen to a level every ten years, and this round of prices has broken through the previous round of 10-20 yuan price range, and the probability will be in a new round of price operation pattern such as 14-15 yuan to 28-30 yuan, which is a reasonable state
.
;
; From Dongpo meat to lion's head, pork is an important food on the table, and China is also the world's largest pork producer and consumer
.
Recently, the value of pigs has been rising
.
Those who often go to the vegetable market will find that the average price of pork has risen from 16 yuan per catty to 20 yuan
per catty.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from October 3 to October 9, 2022, the average purchase price of pigs in designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size nationwide was 25.
74 yuan/kg, up 4.
0% month-on-month and 102.
4%
year-on-year.
The average ex-factory price of white strip meat was 32.
82 yuan/kg, up 3.
9% month-on-month and 88.
3%
year-on-year.
That is to say, the money for buying two pigs last year can only buy one pig this year, and affected by this, the breeding sector, which is expected to grow significantly, has also become the "star"
of market attention.
So, where has the current pig cycle progressed? How will it evolve in the future? Let's find out
together.
The pig cycle of "chasing the rise and killing the fall"
The pig cycle of "chasing the rise and killing the fall" "chasing the rise and killing the fall" of the pig cycle The pig cycle is similar to a "strange circle" of chasing up and killing, which conforms to the most basic supply and demand relationship of economics: supply exceeds demand, and prices rise; Supply exceeds demand and prices fall.
When the pig price rises to a high level, enterprises and farmers will increase investment and expand the number of breeding out of the psychology of making money, which is similar to our "chasing up"
in the stock market.
The supply has increased, but everyone's purchase demand has not expanded, a large number of pork concentrated listing, will cause prices to fall, enterprises and farmers profit decline, and even loss, due to the high cost of continuing to raise sows, many farmers can only helplessly deal with, eliminate sows, this stage is similar to our "killing and falling"
in the stock market.
Cycle after cycle, a pig cycle
of "high prices hurt the people, low prices hurt farmers" was formed.
How long does a pig cycle take?
How long does a pig cycle take? How long does a pig cycle take? Different from the rapid transaction of stock prices, because the expansion, reduction, breeding and fattening of pigs take time, specifically, it can be roughly divided into four stages
.
Among them, it takes
about 8 months for female piglets to develop to be able to breed sows.
It takes about 10 months for piglets to be slaughtered from conception to slaughter, so a complete pig cycle often takes 4-5 years
Some people may ask, when the price of pork is low, I continue to raise it and can't sell it, and wait until the price rises before selling? Of course you can, but it's a loss
.
Unlike stocks, there is no cost to holding stocks, and you can "carry it" if you buy and lose.
The cost of pig breeding is very high, according to the annual report of the relevant listed companies estimates, in the cost structure of pig breeding, feed costs account for 55%, labor costs account for 15%, continuous feeding, the breeding cost of industry leading companies is 16-20 yuan per kilogram, the cost of free-range farmers may be higher, if the continuous breeding is not out of the slaughter, the final result can only be the more the more the more the loss
.
Those things in the pig cycle in history
Those things in the pig cycle in history are the things in the pig cycle in history Looking back at the pig price performance since 2006, starting from the continuous upward trend of pig prices, different pig cycles have some differences
in the increase in pig prices, upside time, and downward time.
From the perspective of cycle length, because pigs have their own growth cycle, the duration of each "pig cycle" is about 4 years, of which the average time of price increase is 20 months, and the average time of decline is 27 months
.
It is worth noting that not only supply and demand cause the pig cycle, but also diseases can greatly affect the course of the
pig cycle.
The first epidemic of PRRS in 2006, the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in 2010, and the spread of African swine fever in 2018 may cause a pork supply gap, or accelerate the production capacity zoning at the bottom of the industry, which directly affects pig prices
.
pig cycle.
From the price point of view before the opening of each round of "pig cycle", the pig price will have a "second bottom" phenomenon, from the price change range, it is related to the extent of sow removal, such as the African swine fever in 2019 caused the sow inventory to fall to the low level since 2009, and the corresponding price increase is also the largest in the
previous cycle.
Where are we in the pig cycle now?
Where are we in the pig cycle now? Where are we in the pig cycle now? Open source securities research report believes that first of all, in this round of pig cycle, the pace of price increases has not deviated from the law of fluctuations during the year, and is still in line with the law of seasonal consumption; Secondly, in the rhythm of capacity adjustment, the supply efficiency decreases, and the capacity is replenished cautiously, which jointly contributes to the cycle length; Third, the average profit of the breeding head in the industry has improved significantly, and the change in production capacity is positively correlated with the average profit of the head; Finally, the hesitation of industry capacity replenishment may become the main reason for the length of
the cycle.
The agency believes that the pig cycle layout has shifted to the stage of average profit and cycle profit cashing, and it is expected that the law of pig price highs and the duration of the boom stage are in line with the conventional pig cycle
.
The short-term industry contradictions are mainly reflected in the increase in the enthusiasm of secondary fattening after the Mid-Autumn Festival and the continuous sluggish restocking behavior
of the industry.
Wu Yue, director of large consumption research of Harvest Fund, said that the continuous de-industrialization + deep loss of the industry before the second quarter of this year has laid the foundation for the upward trend of pig prices, and under the background of low expectations in the future, pig prices are still expected to exceed expectations, and high breeding profits can be expected
.
.
Under the background that the reduction of production capacity has guided the reduction of supply, the weight multiplier has limited increase in the amount of supply, and the consumption season is superimposed on the peak consumption season, and the pig price in the fourth quarter should not be pessimistic; In addition, the current valuation of pig stocks has retraced to the expected reversal starting level of the first stage of the cycle, the valuation margin of safety is high, and the fact of high pig prices is expected to realize the performance
.
Wu Yue believes that the pig price has risen to a level every ten years, and this round of prices has broken through the previous round of 10-20 yuan price range, and the probability will be in a new round of price operation pattern such as 14-15 yuan to 28-30 yuan, which is a reasonable state
.
