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For farmers, soybean meal in 2022 is "miserable", with a monthly increase of more than 700 yuan / ton, and even approaching the 6,000 yuan / ton mark in November, greatly squeezing breeding profits
.
However, after entering December, soybean meal continued to run weakly, and has fallen back to the level
of 4600 yuan / ton so far.
Cai Lian News Agency reporters learned from multiple interviews that after entering December, soybean meal continued to operate weakly, mainly because of the recovery of oil mill operating rate, the increase in soybean meal inventory, and the lack of downstream aquaculture demand
.
However, as the Spring Festival approaches, affected by the support of downstream feed enterprises and the increase in soybean arrivals, soybean meal prices may face shock adjustment in the short term, and the downside is limited
.
Strong supply and weak demand Soybean meal continues to fluctuate weakly
According to Mysteel data, as of January 4, the national spot merchants' soybean meal quotations were lowered by 60-80 yuan / ton, of which Tianjin traders quoted 4590 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton; Shandong traders quoted 4590 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton; Jiangsu traders quoted 4590 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton; Guangdong traders quoted 4680 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton
.
Compared with the peak of 5,800 yuan / ton last year, the decline has exceeded nearly 1,000 yuan / ton
.
(Soybean meal price chart; Image source: Shanghai Steel Union)
Why did last year's "strong" soybean meal continue to run weakly after entering December? "The sharp decline in domestic soybean meal prices in December was mainly due to the recovery of soybean arrivals from domestic oil mills, the sharp increase in oil mill operating rate in December, and the continuous increase in soybean meal output
.
" Fang Ping, an analyst at soybean meal of Shanghai Steel Union Agricultural Products Division, told reporters
.
From the supply side, after entering December, downstream soybean arrivals have gradually increased, and soybean stocks, soybean meal stocks and unexecuted contracts of major oil mills across the country have steadily increased
.
According to Mysteel data monitoring, in the 52nd week of 2022, soybean stocks were 3.
7834 million tons, an increase of 90,400 tons, or 2.
45%, from the previous week, and an increase of 1.
0217 million tons, or 37%,
year-on-year.
Soybean meal stocks were 553,500 tons, an increase of 49,600 tons, or 9.
84%,
from the previous week.
Wang Ming, marketing manager of Sichuan Dadi Oil Plant, told reporters, "After entering December, the operating rate has continued to increase, and although the accumulation of soybean meal stocks is slow, it is still increasing
.
" ”
On the other hand, in the case of loose supply, downstream demand is
weaker.
After December last year, the profit of pig breeding continued to shrink, and the previous secondary fattening and purchased piglet fattening even entered the loss stage, and the pace of production capacity clearance at the breeding end accelerated, especially some secondary fattening even stepped out of the fence, resulting in market feed demand less than expected
.
In this regard, Fang Ping said, "The supply of soybean meal is gradually loosening, while the downstream demand is relatively weak, which has a negative impact on the price of soybean meal in both supply and demand, resulting in a decline
in the spot price of soybean meal.
" ”
Spring Festival stocking support Short-term price volatility is the mainstay
Looking ahead, according to the preliminary statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products team on the number of imported soybeans in February and March, the import of soybeans from oil mills in major domestic markets in January is expected to be 109.
5 ships, totaling about 7.
1175 million tons, the import of soybeans in February is expected to be 5.
5 million tons, and the import of soybeans in March is expected to be 7.
1 million tons
.
In addition, this year's Spring Festival is early, there is still about half a month before the Spring Festival, while medium and large feed mills implement inherent stocking contracts, small feed enterprises that buy and use have also started the stocking process
.
Manager Chen, head of Sichuan Longfeng Feed, told reporters, "Our small feed mills generally do not stock too much, due to the crazy trend of soybean meal in 2022, we generally implement the buy-and-go mode, and the Spring Festival stocking is currently underway
.
" ”
Mr.
Zeng, the head of procurement of a listed feed company, said: "We generally focus on contract execution, and the inventory is relatively stable
.
”
In this regard, Fang Ping said, "As far as I know, although medium and large feed groups have basically prepared contracts, and now mainly carry out contract pick-ups, some small and medium-sized feed enterprises still have stock demand, which has boosted the price of soybean meal to a certain extent
.
" On the whole, under the boost of downstream demand, as well as the weather speculation in South America and the strong trend of US beans in the external market, the spot price of soybean meal is running strongly, and the downside is limited
.
”
In the long run, Fang added, "Looking forward to soybean meal prices in 2023, I think the focus of soybean meal prices will continue to shift, but considering the uncertainty of global soybean inventory reconstruction and some seasonal contradictions, the volatility of soybean meal will continue
in the future.
" ”
It is worth mentioning that the recent continuous decline in soybean meal has brought about the first wave of price reductions for some feed companies in the new year, with a price reduction of 50-150 yuan / ton, but it has not brought about an increase in downstream breeding profits, but has led to a rapid decline in breeding profits due to the continuous sharp decline in pig prices
.
"The recent decline in pig prices has been too strong, according to the current feed cost and pig price, we are actually in a loss state, and what is more worrying is that the current market sentiment is still falling
.
" Lu Huawen, a pig farmer in Nanning, Guangxi, told reporters
.
Mr.
Li, head of sales in the southwest region of a listed feed company, said, "Although the price of feed has been reduced to a certain extent recently, the current price is still high
because it rose too much last year.
Compared with the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the speed of feed price reduction is slower, and most farmers who buy feed still continue to complain, indicating that there is a lot
of pressure.
”
;
;For farmers, soybean meal in 2022 is "miserable", with a monthly increase of more than 700 yuan / ton, and even approaching the 6,000 yuan / ton mark in November, greatly squeezing breeding profits
.
However, after entering December, soybean meal continued to run weakly, and has fallen back to the level
of 4600 yuan / ton so far.
of 4600 yuan / ton.
Cai Lian News Agency reporters learned from multiple interviews that after entering December, soybean meal continued to operate weakly, mainly because of the recovery of oil mill operating rate, the increase in soybean meal inventory, and the lack of downstream aquaculture demand
.
However, as the Spring Festival approaches, affected by the support of downstream feed enterprises and the increase in soybean arrivals, soybean meal prices may face shock adjustment in the short term, and the downside is limited
.
Strong supply and weak demand Soybean meal continues to fluctuate weakly
Strong supply and weak demand Soybean meal continues to fluctuate weaklyAccording to Mysteel data, as of January 4, the national spot merchants' soybean meal quotations were lowered by 60-80 yuan / ton, of which Tianjin traders quoted 4590 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton; Shandong traders quoted 4590 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton; Jiangsu traders quoted 4590 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton; Guangdong traders quoted 4680 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton
.
Compared with the peak of 5,800 yuan / ton last year, the decline has exceeded nearly 1,000 yuan / ton
.
.
(Soybean meal price chart; Image source: Shanghai Steel Union)
(Soybean meal price chart; Image source: Shanghai Steel Union) (soybean meal price chart; Image source: Shanghai Steel Union) (soybean meal price chart; Image source: Shanghai Steel Union).
Why did last year's "strong" soybean meal continue to run weakly after entering December? "The sharp decline in domestic soybean meal prices in December was mainly due to the recovery of soybean arrivals from domestic oil mills, the sharp increase in oil mill operating rate in December, and the continuous increase in soybean meal output
.
" Fang Ping, an analyst at soybean meal of Shanghai Steel Union Agricultural Products Division, told reporters
.
From the supply side, after entering December, downstream soybean arrivals have gradually increased, and soybean stocks, soybean meal stocks and unexecuted contracts of major oil mills across the country have steadily increased
.
According to Mysteel data monitoring, in the 52nd week of 2022, soybean stocks were 3.
7834 million tons, an increase of 90,400 tons, or 2.
45%, from the previous week, and an increase of 1.
0217 million tons, or 37%,
year-on-year.
Soybean meal stocks were 553,500 tons, an increase of 49,600 tons, or 9.
84%,
from the previous week.
Wang Ming, marketing manager of Sichuan Dadi Oil Plant, told reporters, "After entering December, the operating rate has continued to increase, and although the accumulation of soybean meal stocks is slow, it is still increasing
.
" ”
On the other hand, in the case of loose supply, downstream demand is
weaker.
After December last year, the profit of pig breeding continued to shrink, and the previous secondary fattening and purchased piglet fattening even entered the loss stage, and the pace of production capacity clearance at the breeding end accelerated, especially some secondary fattening even stepped out of the fence, resulting in market feed demand less than expected
.
In this regard, Fang Ping said, "The supply of soybean meal is gradually loosening, while the downstream demand is relatively weak, which has a negative impact on the price of soybean meal in both supply and demand, resulting in a decline
in the spot price of soybean meal.
" ”
Spring Festival stocking support Short-term price volatility is the mainstay
Spring Festival stocking support Short-term price volatility is the mainstayLooking ahead, according to the preliminary statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products team on the number of imported soybeans in February and March, the import of soybeans from oil mills in major domestic markets in January is expected to be 109.
5 ships, totaling about 7.
1175 million tons, the import of soybeans in February is expected to be 5.
5 million tons, and the import of soybeans in March is expected to be 7.
1 million tons
.
In addition, this year's Spring Festival is early, there is still about half a month before the Spring Festival, while medium and large feed mills implement inherent stocking contracts, small feed enterprises that buy and use have also started the stocking process
.
Manager Chen, head of Sichuan Longfeng Feed, told reporters, "Our small feed mills generally do not stock too much, due to the crazy trend of soybean meal in 2022, we generally implement the buy-and-go mode, and the Spring Festival stocking is currently underway
.
" ”
Mr.
Zeng, the head of procurement of a listed feed company, said: "We generally focus on contract execution, and the inventory is relatively stable
.
”
In this regard, Fang Ping said, "As far as I know, although medium and large feed groups have basically prepared contracts, and now mainly carry out contract pick-ups, some small and medium-sized feed enterprises still have stock demand, which has boosted the price of soybean meal to a certain extent
.
" On the whole, under the boost of downstream demand, as well as the weather speculation in South America and the strong trend of US beans in the external market, the spot price of soybean meal is running strongly, and the downside is limited
.
”
In the long run, Fang added, "Looking forward to soybean meal prices in 2023, I think the focus of soybean meal prices will continue to shift, but considering the uncertainty of global soybean inventory reconstruction and some seasonal contradictions, the volatility of soybean meal will continue
in the future.
" ”
It is worth mentioning that the recent continuous decline in soybean meal has brought about the first wave of price reductions for some feed companies in the new year, with a price reduction of 50-150 yuan / ton, but it has not brought about an increase in downstream breeding profits, but has led to a rapid decline in breeding profits due to the continuous sharp decline in pig prices
.
"The recent decline in pig prices has been too strong, according to the current feed cost and pig price, we are actually in a loss state, and what is more worrying is that the current market sentiment is still falling
.
" Lu Huawen, a pig farmer in Nanning, Guangxi, told reporters
.
.
Mr.
Li, head of sales in the southwest region of a listed feed company, said, "Although the price of feed has been reduced to a certain extent recently, the current price is still high
because it rose too much last year.
Compared with the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the speed of feed price reduction is slower, and most farmers who buy feed still continue to complain, indicating that there is a lot
of pressure.
”
of stress.
”
