"Strongest pig cycle" survey: raising a pig earns more than 2000 yuan, slaughter.

Since last year, the concept of pigs has long lived in the capitalEspecially in the first half of this year, pig prices, meat prices high operation is frequently set off the concept of pig boomBut in fact, not all companies involved in pigs can share this "cake" from the cyclea recent survey by the agency found that farmers and butchers are very different in terms of high pig pricesAs of June 29, the profit value of self-breeding pigs in the first half of 2020 was RMB2,311.36/head, up 1896.36 percent YoY, while the average gross profit margin for pig slaughter was RMB14.00/head, down 78.22 percent YoYmarket analysis, slaughterhouses seem to be very profitable but frequently shout ingest edion of the reasons include three aspects: First, the low price of fat white meat, fat thin white meat price difference;look forward to the second half of the year, a number of market participants believe that July-August will be a large gap in pig supply period, pig prices or maintain a volatile upward trendAfter the fall, pig prices are expected to show a high slide, November-December market demand will be better than the level of the same period last year, is expected to slightly promote the rebound in pig priceshigh price of pig meatthe first half of 2020, pig prices experienced a high dive and then rebound process, during which multiple factors overlay continue to affect the upstream and downstream mentalityWang Yanan, senior analyst in the pig industry at, said that after falling pig prices in the first half of 2020, there was a rebound, with the overall trend v-shapedAccording to ZhuoTron information monitoring, as of June 29, the first half of 2020 the average price of three yuan pig out of the country is 34.74 yuan / kg, up 20.43 yuan / kg year-on-year, up 142.76 percent."In the Spring Festival demand boost, after the new crown pneumonia outbreak short-term impact on the supply of the situation, pig prices roseBut then due to the poor transfer of pigs, the production area of fat pig backlog too much, in schools, catering did not resume work in the case of pork demand is very depressed, a time pig market oversupply pattern highlighted, pig prices all the way downHowever, in mid-May, with the previous backlog of fat pigs exhausted, the market ushered in the gap period, the market 100 to 130 kg of standard weight lean pig supply gap, pig prices stopped falling reboundWang Yanan saidpork prices are similar to pig prices, and there is a trend of first down and then risingAccording to ZhuoTron information monitoring, as of June 29, the first half of 2020 2 to 3cm thick white meat factory average price of 44.92 yuan / kg, up 25.65 yuan / kg yoY, up 133.19 percentupstream and downstream bittersweet" pig price operation in the first half of the year, although there are certain fluctuations, but the overall high, breeding profits are more considerable, the average pig breeding profit in more than 1000 yuanHowever, due to the lack of piglets lead to higher breeding costs, self-breeding than the purchase of piglets model profit sorgas 800 to 1000 yuan / head range, the overall supplement of farmers is more activeBut the first half of the slaughter side overall earnings situation is not good, most of the loss, some of last year's low-cost hoarding of frozen meat more enterprises by selling frozen meat at a high price to make up for the lossThe main reason for the loss was the sharp decline in slaughter volumes, which made it difficult to cover fixed inputsIn addition, the breeding end of the strong price capacity, downstream consumption is weak, the ability to raise prices is weak, but also lead to the slaughter business difficultiesFang Huiling, agricultural product sourm analyst at Dongsecurities Futures, saidWang Yanan said that the first half of pig feed prices showed a upward trendAs of June 29, the half-yearly average price of pig feed was RMB2,292.51/tonne, up 5.65% YoYAlthough the cost of feed has risen, but its year-on-year increase is far less than the increase in pig prices, so self-breeding profit value rose significantlyAs of June 29, the profit value of self-breeding pigs in the first half of 2020 was 2311.36 yuan per head, up 1896.36 percent year-on-year, according to The Monitoringalthough the upstream farming side self-breeding profit rich, but the downstream slaughterhouse gross margin situation is not satisfactory As of June 29, the average gross profit margin for pig slaughter in the first half of 2020 was RMB14.00/head, a decrease of 78.22% YoY, according to The Monitoring Many of these areas appear edimeta gross margin negative situation, fresh products slaughter losses are serious, some manufacturers said that the gross profit loss value reached more than 100 yuan most of the first half of this year, the gross white price difference (white meat price - pig price) remained at 10 to 12 yuan / kg, currently 11.24 yuan / kg, compared with 3-7 yuan / kg in the same period last year According to reason, the gross white price difference is positively related to the profit of the slaughterhouse, why does the slaughterhouse seem to be very profitable but often shouts for loss? Wang Yanan analysis, the reasons behind it mainly include three aspects First, the price of fat white meat is low, fat thin white meat price difference is large The current market volume of large white-striped meat thick smaller, higher level, prices to maintain a high level of operation But at the same time, the low-grade fat white bar price per kilogram is 3 to 5 yuan lower In addition, the fat white bar market share is very limited, goods are under pressure Second, the demand is reduced, fresh goods are forced into storage In the first half of the year, the rate of operation of slaughtering enterprises decreased by about 50% year-on-year, and local areas decreased by 67%, but even so, many slaughtering enterprises' fresh pork is still difficult to sell on the same day, at this time it is necessary to put fresh products into cold storage, in this case, the head loss is more serious Third, the amount of slaughter is small, but labor, epidemic prevention and other costs remain high, resulting in an increase in the cost of the average labor costs day eye survey data show that, up to now, the company name with "pig breeding", set up more than 5 years and registered capital of more than 5 million yuan in the camp enterprises a total of 9108; the second half of the year or the current N-type trend looking forward to the second half, Wang Yanan said, in the absence of a large-scale pig industry outbreak, policy and sudden factors, it is expected that July-August will be a large gap in pig supply stage, pig prices or maintain a volatile upward trend After entering the autumn, the effect of the restoration of production capacity in some parts of the north will be reflected in the market supply, when pig prices are expected to fall at a high level November-December market demand will be better than the level of the same period last year, pig prices are expected to rebound slightly .　　"In such a situation, pig self-breeding will maintain a large profit margin For slaughtering enterprises, July-October is a period of flat demand, gross margin growth space is very limited, November-December as the pork market into the traditional demand season, gross margin is expected to get a boost Wang Yanan said Fang Huiling said that from September 2019, the pig industry epidemic has been somewhat controlled, the national pig stock gradually recovered At the end of 2019 and the spring of 2020, pig supplement column is more concentrated, in which the scale of enterprises is the main strength of pig supplement column, small and medium-sized retail investors due to limited financial strength, health defense facilities are not in place, the capacity of the supplement column is poor Taking into account the construction cycle of large-scale projects and pig growth cycle, it is expected that the third quarter of 2020 pig production is more limited, but seasonal consumption demand gradually increased, it is expected that pig prices will be more volatile, the fourth quarter of pig out of the column more concentrated, significant increase in supply, pig prices may gradually decline .