Strong US soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil demand expectations

Introduction: FWN news according to mark Schultz, an analyst at Polaris commodity investment in Minneapolis, "as demand has been strong, it is possible that the current export forecasts for all three products are underestimated." He said it would not be surprising if USDA maintained its current export forecast, which is already relatively high U.S soybean exports are currently expected to be 980 million bushels, two percentage points below the previous year's record In addition, export sales are higher than the same period last year, but export shipments are 10% lower than last year, which may be why USDA may maintain the same soybean export forecast at present Brian Anderson, an analyst at Anderson commodities and consulting in Kansas, said: "unless the expected value of China's soybean imports is significantly reduced, the USDA will keep its export forecast unchanged." This month, the USDA's agriculture counsellor predicted that China's soybean imports would total 12 million tons, compared with 13 million tons predicted by local Chinese sources By contrast, the USDA's official forecast is 14 million tons Some analysts expect the USDA data to be the same as the agricultural Counsellor's, while others argue that China's accession to the World Trade Organization and China's policy on genetically modified products are starting to loosen, so it seems too early to change China's import forecast "But there's definitely room for upward revisions in soybean meal and oil export forecasts," Anderson said The U.S Department of agriculture expects soybean meal exports to be 7.4 million tons in 2001 / 02, 2.3 percentage points lower than the previous year, while soybean oil exports are currently expected to be 2.45 billion pounds, the highest level since 1994 / 95 So far, soybean meal exports have advanced by 23.3% compared with last year, while soybean oil shipments are outstanding, more than 10 times ahead of the same period in 2000 Domestically, Anderson said that there is no evidence to support the change of the squeezing forecast for 2001 / 02, which is currently 1.66 billion bushels, reaching a record high level In terms of soybean products, he said, "soybean oil consumption is related to economic activity, and now the economy is slowing down." But he thinks the USDA is unlikely to want to change its domestic consumption forecast for soybean oil at this time In terms of soybean meal, the moderate temperature in the Midwest of the United States does not support a good domestic demand base But forecasters continue to expect low winter temperatures in the region This is supported by soybean meal consumption However, USDA is not expected to change the forecast at this time.