Stop squeezing!

Even with the recent rise in infections, Paxlovid supply in the U.

Signs of a glut of oral Covid-19 drugs may be emerging

On April 19, a Reuters survey of data and interviews with experts found that global demand for Pfizer's oral Covid-19 drug Paxlovid unexpectedly fell due to complex eligibility requirements, fewer tests and the possibility of drug interactions

The market believes that the omicron virus infection is less severe, which also affects demand

01 Signal? Pfizer's new crown drug is not easy to sell

According to clinical data published in the past, Paxlovid has reduced the hospitalization rate or mortality rate of high-risk patients by about 90%, making it one of the most talked-about treatments for the new crown

But health department data and Reuters interviews with doctors and pharmacists found that supply of Paxlovid in the U.

But Pfizer doesn't have to worry about orders for the time being this year

According to a recent report by Reuters, Pfizer plans to produce up to 120 million courses of Paxlovid this year, with contracted sales expected to be at least $22 billion as of early February

The U.

Pfizer said recently that it has negotiated Paxlovid with 100 governments and has reached agreements with 26 countries

The rollout of Paxlovid in Asia has also been slow, despite recent record-breaking infections in some countries

In Japan, which has signed up for 2 million courses of Paxlovid, its health ministry has restricted access to facilities with a record of treating the new coronavirus

As of April 17, South Korea had received enough Paxlovid to treat 624,000 people, according to government data, but only about a third of the stockpile was actually used

In Europe, there are 2.

Since February, Italy has received about 50,000 courses of Paxlovid a month, and about 8,300 people have been prescribed the drug

Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla also said last week that the use of Paxlovid in Europe is limited

Some U.
S.
pharmacists and doctors worry that testing at home rather than in a lab could allow high-risk patients to "slip through the cracks" because they don't know if they're eligible for Paxlovid, or if they don't.
Know that Paxlovid exists
.

Paxlovid can interact with many widely used drugs, complicating its use
.
"Prescribing is a bit of a pain," said Paul Little, a professor at the University of Southampton
.

Demand could increase if Paxlovid proves effective in a wider population, including those at lower risk and those who have been vaccinated
.

02 "Supply" of new crown vaccine

The currently confirmed new crown specific drugs include Merck's Molnupiravir and Gilead's Redcivir (intravenous)
.
The CEO of an Indian pharmaceutical company that has licensed Molnupiravir and Paxlovid recently said in an interview with CNBC-TV18 that he does not see an opportunity for Paxlovid in emerging markets, “Compared to Molnupiravir, Paxlovid is a very effective drug for the treatment of the COVID virus.

"With the exception of China, the number of cases in Asia is falling significantly; in Africa, it's not a major issue anymore
.
So we don't see a huge opportunity in emerging markets
.
"

Just a few months ago, Dr.
Reddy in India launched a generic version of Molnupiravir, which will be priced at 35 rupees per capsule, 10 capsules per capsule, and a total course of 40 capsules for 5 days costing 1400 rupees (about 117 yuan), That compares to $700 for a course of treatment in the United States
.

In addition, it is worth noting that the stock price of Paxlovid's CDMO company, Asymchem, has fallen by more than 35% this year, and the industry's average decline is 21%
.

The signal released by the new crown drug is also reflected in the new crown vaccine
.

Johnson & Johnson recently lowered its forecast for COVID-19 vaccine sales to $3 billion to $3.
5 billion in revenue
.
Johnson & Johnson Chief Financial Officer Joseph Wolk said on the conference call: "As the current market demand for all COVID-19 vaccines is challenged by global oversupply and vaccine hesitancy in developing markets, we have decided to suspend the development of our COVID-19 vaccines.
sales guide
.
”

The change comes as vaccinations have plateaued in many rich and middle-income countries in North, South America and Europe, while some low-income countries in Africa and Asia have yet to vaccinate most of their citizens
.

About 11.
5 billion doses had been injected worldwide as of April 20, according to the latest data compiled by Bloomberg, and the latest rate is about 14 million doses per day
.
In the United States, for example, 568 million doses have been administered so far
.
More than a year ago, the average number of daily COVID-19 vaccine doses in the U.
S.
peaked at about 3 million doses, and the latest vaccination rates now average about 650,000 doses per day
.

The slowdown in booster vaccinations has diverted investors' attention from vaccines, while impacting vaccine companies' forecasts for revenue growth
.
Shares in mRNA vaccine developers Moderna and BioNTech have fallen by about a third since the start of 2022
.

Notably, J&J is typically the first major pharma company to report quarterly earnings, and its financials are closely watched as a bellwether for what other drugmakers may also report and potentially set expectations for other COVID-19 vaccine makers
.

AstraZeneca is going through a new round of vaccine "storms"
.
According to a recent report by Japan’s NHK, among the 120 million doses of the new crown vaccine order signed by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and Aliscon, 40 million doses of the order will be cancelled, because AstraZeneca’s new crown vaccine is “cold” in Japan.
”, and the number of vaccinations will not increase significantly in the foreseeable future
.

Meanwhile, 61 low-income countries have cut millions of doses of AstraZeneca's Vaxzevria vaccine due to, among other reasons, a short shelf life, according to a document from the World Health Organization's global vaccine supply effort, COVAX, according to which countries refused to accept nearly 35 million injections of the Vaxzevria vaccine
.

Despite the limitations of AstraZeneca's vaccine itself, these movements point to the same trend - as the supply of COVID-19 vaccines in poor countries has become more abundant, everyone has become selective, which in part means vaccines May enter the "survival of the fittest" link
.

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