Soybean production in China: Problems and Countermeasures

Introduction: China is the country of origin of soybean and has a long history of soybean planting In 1930s, China was the largest soybean production country in the world Since 1950s, soybean planting area and yield have been continuously reduced, and the status of the largest soybean production country has been gradually replaced by the United States, followed by Brazil and Argentina At present, China's soybean production has become the fourth largest country in the world At the same time, with the increase of demand, there was a gap between domestic soybean supply and demand By the early 1990s, China had changed from a soybean exporting country to a net importing country, and the import volume increased year by year, from 1.188 million tons in 1996 to 3.189 million tons in 1998, reaching 4.317 million tons in 1999, an increase of 1.12 million tons over 1998, reaching the highest level in history The import volume of soybean accounted for about 1 / 3 of the total domestic output From January to the end of August 2000, the total import of soybeans was 6.93 million tons, which is expected to exceed 9 million tons in the whole year In addition, China also imports hundreds of thousands of tons of soybean oil, soybean meal and other products every year At present, China has become the world's largest importer from a country of origin and a country of large soybean production As the kingdom of soybean, why did the growth of production slow or even shrink when the demand continued to rise? First, the cost of production increased year by year, which reduced the level of comparative advantage of soybean From 1986 to 1997, the cost of soybean production increased from 583 yuan / hm2 to 3167 yuan / Hm2, up 5.43 times, and the cost per 100 yuan output value increased from 43.84 yuan to 61.14 yuan The main reasons for the increase of soybean production cost are as follows: first, the material cost has increased significantly The average material cost of soybean production increased from 325 yuan / hm2 to 1603 yuan / hm2, increased by 4.93 times; the proportion of material cost in output value increased from 22.43% to 30.94%, increased by 8.51 percentage points Among them, the direct cost increased from 267 yuan / hm2 in 1986 to 1351 yuan / hm2, which is five times higher than that in 1986 It is an important factor affecting the cost of soybean In the direct cost, the seed cost accounts for about 30% The cost of chemical fertilizer, machinery operation and drainage and irrigation also increased to some extent At the same time, the indirect cost in the material cost has increased significantly At present, the labor cost of soybean has exceeded the material cost and become the first major component of the production cost Because of the rising cost, the comparative advantage of soybean in China is obviously decreasing In 1986, the domestic resource cost coefficient (DRCC) of soybean was 0.4586, which means that only 0.46 unit cost is needed for every unit of shadow income earned by soybean production and export; by 1998, the DRCC value of soybean had risen to 1.0177, that is to say, 1.02 unit cost is needed to obtain 1 unit of shadow income This also shows that China's soybean production has changed from a comparative advantage to a comparative disadvantage   6ia     2、 The comparative benefit of soybean production is relatively low, and continues to decline In 1996, the average output value of soybean in China was 5180 yuan / hm2, an increase of 2.89 times compared with 1986 The net income of tax reduction increased by 1.6 times from 711 yuan / hm2 to 1850 yuan / hm2, and the net income rate of tax reduction decreased from 121.97% to 58.40% In absolute value, although the income of soybean increased, it was relative to wheat, corn and rice The comparative benefit of soybean production is low and continues to decline First of all, due to the low yield level of soybean, although the price of soybean is higher than the above varieties, the production efficiency is far less than the above three products (Table 1) In terms of output level, soybean yield is less than 1 / 2 of wheat, 1 / 3 of corn and 1 / 4 of rice; in terms of price level, due to the price comparison between soybean and other agricultural products is not really opened, the production efficiency of soybean is low In terms of output value and net output value, the ratio of the four is 1:1.44:1.44:2.53 and 1:1.02:1.25:2.30 respectively Compared with cotton, fruits, vegetables and other economic crops, soybean has lower comparative benefits Table 1 Comparison of production benefits of soybean and other agricultural products (average value from 1997 to 1999) ratio of soybean, wheat, corn and rice (1 for soybean) per unit yield (kg / hm2) l733 4389 5484 7344 L: 2.26:3.28:4.31 average selling price (yuan / 50kg) 114.06 64.91 50.08 71.15 L: 0.57:0.44:0.62 output value (yuan / hm2) 4262 6114 6111 10758 L: 1.44 : 1.44:2.53 net output value (yuan / hm2) 3056 3120 3827 7029 1:1.02:1.25:2.30 the United States, Brazil and Argentina are the largest soybean producers and exporters in the world, and also the main source of soybean imports in China After China's accession to WTO, due to a large number of imports, China's soybean production and trade will be seriously impacted 1 In 1998, the average yield of soybean in the world was 2240kg / hm2, followed by 2715kg / hm2 in Argentina, 2591kg / hm2 in the United States, 2366kg / hm2 in Brazil, and 1677kg / hm2 in China, ranking 12th in the world, 25.13% lower than the world average 2 The cost gap is only compared with China's soybean cost The United States is the largest soybean producer in the world Its soybean planting area accounts for 40.5% of the world's total planting area, its output is close to half of the world's output, and its export volume accounts for 3 / 4 of the world's total export volume (China accounts for about 8%) From 1997 to 1998, the cost of soybean production per kilogram in China was 1.83 yuan, while that in the United States was 1.21 yuan, about 33% lower than that in China From the perspective of cost composition, the labor cost in China accounted for about half of the total cost, the machinery cost accounted for 11%, the two items in the United States totaled 35%, and the two indicators in China totaled 55% - 60%, which shows that the cost of soybean production in China is too high 3 Input-output gap input-output is a comprehensive reflection of a series of factors such as production scale, production technology conditions, resource utilization efficiency, etc In 1998, China's soybean planting area was 13.25 million Hm2, and the output was 15.15 million tons, accounting for 11.6% and 9.6% of the world's corresponding indicators, that is to say, China produced 9.6% of the world's soybean with 11.6% of the world's planting area; Argentina produced 11.82% of the world's soybean with 9.8% of the world's planting area; the United States produced 47.4% of the world's planting area with 40.5% of the world's planting area Brazil produces 19.81% of the world's soybeans with 18.74% of the world's sown area There are three main reasons for the low input-output level of soybean in China: first, the low level of per unit yield Second, the production scale school shows that the proportion of soybean production in the sown area is low, 5.46% in 1998, and 20% in 1997 in the United States; from the perspective of the average soybean planting scale per household, the average scale of soybean farmers in China is very small, even the largest farmers in the main soybean producing area in Northeast China are only about lohm2; as early as 1978, the average soybean planting scale per household in the United States The modulus reached 114hm2, rising to 148hm2 in 1992 Third, the technical level is low At present, the United States has effectively achieved the goal of increasing soybean production and reducing production costs through transgenic technology, intensive cultivation and precision agriculture measures Brazil has adopted mechanized no till cultivation to reduce costs and increase unit yield Up to now, the effective technical support for soybean production in China is very low 4 The quality gap, protein content and oil content are the main indicators of soybean quality At present, there is a certain gap between the protein content of soybean in China and that of foreign countries The oil content is low, about 15% ~ 17%, 2 ~ 3 percentage points lower than that of imported soybean, but the water content is 2 ~ 3 percentage points higher Although China has developed many soybean varieties with high protein and high fat, which represent the international advanced level, the quality of soybean has been seriously affected due to the long-term mixed planting, collection and marketing 5 The price gap is low in China's soybean production efficiency, which is reflected in the fact that the soybean price is far higher than the international market price In 1999, the annual average wholesale prices of soybeans in Heilongjiang grain and oil wholesale market and Zhengzhou grain wholesale market were 1916 yuan and 2064 yuan / T respectively In June 1999, the average spot prices in the international market were 1472 yuan / T (U.S No.1 soybeans, export prices in the Gulf region), while the futures prices in the same period were 1344 yuan / T (closing prices on June 30 of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), far lower than the domestic soybean market prices 6ia 3 Countermeasures and suggestions 1 Adhere to the principle of paying equal attention to yield type and cost saving type technology to provide technical support for soybean production At present, the per unit yield of rice, corn and wheat in China basically represents the international leading level, but the per unit yield of soybean is far behind the international level, which also shows that there is great potential to improve the per unit yield of soybean in China At the same time, the high production cost has become the main reason to restrict the comparative advantage of soybean in China Under the current conditions, it is necessary to attach equal importance to yield type technology and cost-effective type technology, select and improve soybean varieties, provide excellent germplasm resources for soybean production, learn from and promote the cost-effective and High-yield Soybean Cultivation Mode through tree model and model building, and provide strong technical support for soybean production 2 Take structural adjustment as an opportunity to optimize the regional layout of soybean Northeast China and Huanghuaihai region are the main soybean producing areas in China They have suitable light, heat and soil conditions for soybean growth, and their long-term planting habits have accumulated rich experience for local farmers In the new round of structural adjustment, the two major production areas should make full use of the local natural resources, further expand the soybean planting area, and provide guarantee for expanding the soybean production scale and optimizing the regional layout of our country; between the two regions, according to the soil conditions, the length of frost free period and the amount of rainfall, the appropriate varieties of the region should be selected, for example, high protein and low oil can be selected in the Huang Huai Hai region The varieties with high fat and low protein were selected in Northeast China 3 With the rapid development of modern bioengineering technology, transgenic technology has been widely used in soybean production According to statistics, transgenic soybean in the United States has developed to 14.5 million Hm2, accounting for more than half of the total soybean production At present, Argentina and Brazil also began to produce genetically modified soybeans Although transgenic soybean has the advantages of high yield and low cost, the safety of transgenic food has become a new field of international trade disputes The European Union strongly boycotted the import of genetically modified soybeans, and Japan and South Korea implemented the management method of genetically modified product labeling, allowing consumers to make decisions independently At present, there are no genetically modified soybean varieties in China, and the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in the production process is not much, and the pollution level is low In the process of soybean export, we should pay attention to the differences of products, take "food safety" as the main marketing means, and improve the competitive advantage of China's soybean in the international market 4 Making full use of the "green box policy" under the framework of WTO and strengthening the support to soybean production "green box policy" are some domestic support measures that WTO agricultural agreement allows member states to exempt from concession commitments, including government general agricultural production services, natural disaster relief subsidies, agricultural production structure adjustment investment subsidies, etc After entering WTO, China should make full use of this agricultural support space to effectively support and protect the scientific research, plant protection and regional structure adjustment in the process of soybean production, so as to promote the healthy and rapid development of soybean production in China 6ia