Soybean prices in Heilongjiang still have room to fall

Introduction: in the middle of November, the purchase price of soybean in Heilongjiang province changed little The purchase price of soybean in Harbin oil plants, Qiqihar railway freight yard, cities and counties east of Mudanjiang, Fujin city and areas east of Fujin decreased slightly, with a range of 0.01-0.02 yuan / 500g The purchase price of soybean in other regions is basically stable with little change In terms of the purchase and sale quantity of soybeans, the purchase quantity of local soybeans is lower than that in the first ten days, the export sales quantity is slightly lower than that in the first ten days, and the purchase quantity of soybeans in oil plants is higher than that in the first ten days At present, the purchase and sale of soybean in most areas of Heilongjiang Province are in a stalemate Soybean manufacturers in other provinces do not want to raise the purchase price, and Heilongjiang soybean producers are reluctant to sell more As of November 15, soybean meal prices have rebounded in Guangdong, Shandong and other places However, it is understood that some manufacturers in Liaoning, Hebei and Shandong, the main soybean sales areas in Heilongjiang Province, have insufficient confidence in whether soybean meal prices can continue to rise At present, there is no sign of raising soybean reception prices Based on a comprehensive analysis of the situation of soybean purchase and sale in China, the author believes that in recent years, the soybean receiving prices in Liaoning, Hebei and Shandong may remain unchanged, while the spot soybean purchasing prices in Heilongjiang Province may continue to decline slightly after a period of deadlock The main reasons are as follows: 1 The port stock of imported soybeans is large At the early stage, China imported a lot of soybeans At present, the port imports a large amount of soybeans The total amount of all ports in China is about 1.2 million tons, only about 250000 tons in the same period last year In the later period, there will continue to be imported soybeans, and the quantity is larger than that in the same period last year 2 The same period ratio of national soybean stock is higher than that of last year According to information obtained by relevant departments, this year's total soybean output is slightly higher than that of last year In addition, the import of soybeans at the port is 1 million tons more than that of last year At present, the national soybean inventory is the largest period of the whole year According to the purchase and sale situation of Heilongjiang Province, the export volume and local consumption are significantly less than the same period last year 3 The output of soybean meal is larger than the demand According to the author's understanding, at present, China's soybean crushing capacity has reached 100000 tons / day, nearly double the actual demand Soybean meal sales market, most of the time is oversupply, buyer LED market price The low sales price of soybean meal in the early stage has forced some manufacturers to stop production After the price of soybean meal increases, it will attract some manufacturers that stopped production in the early stage to start production again, which will rapidly increase the supply of soybean meal and restrain the price rise of soybean meal 4 Heilongjiang soybean meal has pressure on the market According to the current purchase price of soybean, most of the oil plants in Heilongjiang Province can maintain capital or make small profits when they start production From November to December of each year, Heilongjiang oil plant starts the most The low price soybean meal produced in Heilongjiang Province will put a certain pressure on the sales market of soybean meal in Guannei 5 Soybean meal sales have not entered the peak season From the perspective of market demand, at present, the demand for soybean meal in the breeding industry and feed processing industry is relatively stable Soybean meal sales are still some time away from the seasonal peak season before the Spring Festival If the price of soybean meal does not rise sharply, it will be difficult for the price of soybean to rise In view of the above factors, the author believes that under the situation of the national soybean meal price downturn and the overall seasonal soybean supply exceeding demand, the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province may continue to decline slightly.