Soybean meal: rebound under heavy pressure: rebound under heavy pressure

Introduction: copyright notice] this is the work that the author authorizes Hexun to publish exclusively Other media shall not reprint all or part of the content of this article unless authorized by Hexun Traditional media reprint on other websites shall contact the original author and Hexun (hrstock@homeway.com.cn 85650830) in advance This opinion is purely personal and has nothing to do with the position of this website In a wave of mild oscillation in the market, soybean meal completed a week's trend Trading volume is shrinking, and the change of position is not too large, which shows that both sides of long and short are mainly waiting for opportunities On Monday, stimulated by the favorable U.S market, the soybean meal increased significantly However, in the next four days, the long and short factors mutually appeared, and the futures price of soybean meal was also the end point and back to the starting point Since the continuous meal price set a new low, the price has been in the trend of low-level oscillation, and the amplitude is also constantly narrowing, with the signs of rising and bottoming In terms of form, the rebound of soybean meal seems to be in the near future, but the pressure on the fundamentals is also becoming more and more heavy Soybean meal market is weak, In the near future, the spot price of soybean meal is still gradually weakening As of October 29, the ex factory price of 43% protein soybean meal in the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province is still concentrated between 2500-2550 yuan / ton; the price in Shandong Province has a significant decline, the transaction is light, and the ex factory price of 43% protein soybean meal remains at 2490-2550 yuan / ton; due to the lack of local soybean meal supply, the price of soybean meal in Liaoning Province is stable The market price is 2400-2450 yuan / ton, the local soybean supply is tight, and the squeezing profit is good The quotation in Henan continued to be stable, with the quotation range of 43% protein soybean meal being 2620-2650 The supply of soybean meal was tight, and the transaction was slightly warmer The quotation of soybean meal in Jiangsu was relatively stable, with 2500 yuan / ton in Zhangjiagang, 2480 yuan / ton in Lianyungang, and the overall transaction was general, Because the market is still bearish on the future market, and because it is in a repair period between the peak of the breeding industry, the enthusiasm of farmers is not high, leading to the cautious purchase of feed enterprises In recent days, the factory quotation of soybean oil in South China has stabilized to some extent The average price is between 5500-6000 yuan / ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in South China is about 2550 yuan The cost of imported soybean is estimated as follows: the duty paid price of soybean in November is about 2790 yuan, the duty paid price of soybean in December is about 2770 yuan; excluding the crushing cost of oil factory, then the oil The crushing profit of the factory is about 200-300 yuan Although most of the oil plants are not optimistic about the future market of soybean meal, however, due to the high spot price of imported soybean, the farmers' reluctance to sell and the existence of squeezed profits in the main soybean production areas, the future market price of soybean meal will get some support in a short period of time On the evening of October 28, the central bank announced the decision to increase interest rates The benchmark interest rate of one-year deposits of financial institutions was increased by 0.27 percentage points, from the current 1.98% to 2.25% The benchmark interest rate of one-year loans was increased by 0.27 percentage points, from the current 5.31% to 5.58% This is the first rate increase since July 1995 The direct effect of interest rate hike will curb the growth of fixed investment scale, thus reducing the effective demand for commodities, which is a real negative for commodity futures However, as for soybean meal of agricultural product futures, its impact is relatively limited First, the decline of soybean meal has been very large before, so the short-term decline space is not large Secondly, because the supply and demand of soybean meal market is rigid, similar to the nature of Giffen commodity, the interest rate increase factor is only a secondary factor for the price trend of soybean meal market In October, the overall performance of CBOT soybeans showed a trend of low-end consolidation, with 500 cents always being the key support price of the market On October 27, CBOT soybean showed signs of blocked rebound Whether 500 cents can form the final bottom support of CBOT soybean? We think that the possibility of forming the final bottom of the market is increasing at present, and after entering November, the bottom shape of CBOT soybean market will be more obvious The main pressure faced by soybean meal is the pressure of supply and demand fundamentals The world soybean output in 2004 / 05 released by USDA in October was 229 million tons, an increase of more than 39 million tons compared with 189 million tons in the previous year, an increase of more than 20% At the end of the period, the inventory was 59.25 million tons, an increase of more than 20 million tons, or more than 50%, compared with 38.6 million tons in the previous year Brazil has 60.2 million tons, an increase of 11 million tons over the previous year's 49.2 million tons, an increase of more than 22%; Argentina has 39 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons over the previous year's 32 million tons, an increase of more than 20% China's soybean production this year will exceed 18 million tons, the same as the international production, an increase of 17% over the previous year In addition, according to the current information, Brazil, Argentina and other countries continue to expand the planting area for the next year's new beans The record increase of soybean production and the expectation of the increase of soybean supply in the future are undoubtedly a big mountain on the futures price, and the more time goes by, the more heavy the pressure will be, which we should be vigilant at all times Tel: 0571-85058093 qq16536443