Soybean meal, rapeseed meal and other feed commodities bucked the trend

Introduction: Despite the overall downturn in the commodity market, feed futures such as soybean meal and rapeseed meal have been doggedly rising in recent two weeks, with soybean meal up more than 6% and rapeseed meal up to 5% in 10 trading days OA show ('918 '); D8A the chain reaction that the feed price rise drives the price of meat, poultry and eggs, and then drives the CPI higher seems to be repeated Although the bulk commodity market in D8A is relatively weak as a whole, feed futures such as soybean meal and rapeseed meal have been rising by a large margin in recent two weeks, with soybean meal increasing by more than 6% and rapeseed meal by 5% in 10 trading days Analysts believe that such a strong increase shows a strong fundamentals The rise of feed futures means that the demand for feed in the breeding industry is improving, followed by the rise of pork and egg prices The domestic demand of D8A slowly picked up, and the international soybean price represented by the Chicago Board of trade (Chicago Board of trade) of D8A stepped out of the low oscillation range since the first ten days of May, with an increase of more than 10% in the past one month D8A Lu Juan, deputy director of Guodu futures agricultural products research center, analyzed that, on the one hand, since May, the progress of South American soybean listing was slow, while the inventory of American old soybean was in short supply, and the international soybean price rebounded sharply due to the delay of new soybean planting affected by the weather; on the other hand, due to the strike of workers in Argentina port, the progress of South American soybean arriving at port was slow, and the domestic port inventory was still in the past At record lows, buyers had to switch to American soybeans, which exacerbated the tight supply of American soybeans D8A as the main raw material of domestic soybean meal production is soybeans, so the price of domestic soybean meal will inevitably rise Lujuan believes that future funds will still speculate on adverse weather in the United States, soybean planting delay and other topics The rise of international soybean and soybean meal futures is expected to continue to the end of June If the weather conditions are poor or other topics appear, the time for soybean price to strengthen may be further extended In addition to the rebound of international soybean price, the demand of D8A for feedstuffs is also increasing significantly Some time ago, the market was too sensitive to the "h7n9 avian influenza" epidemic At that time, there was a wave of panic that feed futures prices fell rapidly As the weather turned warm and the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, the consumption of downstream pig, poultry and other industries significantly recovered D8A at the same time, the second round of frozen pork harvest and storage in the year also provided a driving force for the breeding industry, and the improvement of breeding profits made the feed demand increasingly strong Feed enterprises generally began to replenish inventory, driving the recovery of demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal And the consumption peak of Dragon Boat Festival in China is approaching, which promotes the food price in the lower reaches of feed to go up day by day D8A on April 7, the national development and Reform Commission announced that frozen pork collection and storage were launched in more than 20 provinces at the same time After two months of regulation, the decline in pig prices slowed down On May 22, the national plan for frozen pork collection and storage was launched again, and the price of pig finally stopped the decline and rebounded slightly, and the pig breeding industry ended its three-month loss situation At the end of May, the average price of improved pigs in China broke through the integer level of 7 yuan / Jin At the same time, the price ratio of pig to grain also returned to the break even point of 6:1 The farmers had the enthusiasm to mend the fences again In addition, the stock of sows in the early stage was high, and the demand for feed rebounded rapidly D8A "tappet press oil" D8A In spite of the rise of soybean, rapeseed and other raw materials for oil and feed production, Wang Ruiqing, chairman of Heilongjiang RUIFUDA Oil Co., Ltd., believes that at present, the fundamentals do not support the sharp rise of oil and fat market, because the summer is the off-season of oil consumption, and the rising temperature makes palm oil with relatively low price occupy more market share due to its low price Soybean oil and rapeseed oil In this case, the weakness of oil makes the crushing enterprises have to support the meal price to maintain the processing profit According to D8A, with the rise of soybean meal price, the oil companies in Northeast China are expected to get rid of the huge loss pattern that lasted for two months, while the loss range of oil companies in other regions is also narrowing According to D8A lujuan, in the recent international market, the trend of crude oil price is weak, and the advantage of biodiesel oil substitution is no longer obvious At the same time, the European Union launched an anti-dumping investigation on Argentine biodiesel, the global oil industry demand has been suppressed, and the staged inventory is high However, the recent data of domestic catering industry shows that the growth rate slows down, and the demand for edible oil decreases accordingly In addition, palm oil is replaced after the temperature rises, and the characteristics of consumption in the off-season are all obvious Therefore, most soybean oil and rapeseed oil enterprises stop production and limit production Most of the middle-end traders remain cautious, and the willingness to buy a large number of them is not strong In contrast, the demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal worried that the price of feed industry would fall further in the previous period of avian influenza The mode of purchase on demand was adopted, and the stock in hand was very limited Under the background that the avian influenza epidemic was gradually subsided and oil companies were willing to replenish the stock again, the supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was in short supply, and the price rise was also reasonable At the same time, the price of D8A soybean meal increased significantly, and the rapeseed meal as feed was not inferior In recent two weeks, the main contract price of rapeseed meal futures has increased by nearly 200 yuan / ton, and driven the average spot price to above 2800 yuan / ton Li Xiaowei, a senior researcher of Yide Futures Research Institute, thinks that the market supporting effect of the collection and storage policy can not be ignored This year, the relevant departments issued the notice on the acquisition of national temporary storage rapeseed (oil) in 2013, which decided to collect and store 5 million tons of rapeseed at a price of 2.55 yuan / Jin, which makes the price of rapeseed relatively firm D8A according to the news from the industry, this year's CSSC will set the sales guidance price of rapeseed meal for the storage enterprises above 2700 yuan / ton The new financial reporter found that the price was actually much higher than the guiding price of 2200 yuan / ton in 2012 Li Xiaowei, the D8A, told the new financial reporter that the market's expected price was up to 2400 yuan / ton before The higher than expected actual storage price not only reflects the willingness and determination of relevant parties to support the meal, but also reflects the tight supply Different from the soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal industry chain, the pricing power of domestic rapeseed meal is mainly concentrated in the hands of several large-scale enterprises The establishment of collection and storage policy and higher guiding price makes spot trading enter the strong seller market From the downstream of D8A, due to the lack of price discourse and the increase of seasonal aquaculture demand, rapeseed meal price will not encounter too much resistance Although the impact of the avian influenza epidemic is gradually fading, consumers' preference for aquatic products has not decreased After the rise of the price of fish affected by the avian influenza, there is no decline The strong terminal demand is transmitted to the rapeseed meal market, which will boost the meal price The impact of D8A on the overall rise of feed futures, Li Xiaowei believes that the stronger soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices will soon be transmitted to the breeding cost, while the demand for meat, poultry and eggs will pick up Affected by this, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the next few months will pick up slightly D8A