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;
Soybean meal spot prices fell sharply for two consecutive days
According to the statistics of the feed industry information network, the mainstream average price of soybean meal on November 14 was 5540 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, from the market point of view, the highest price of traders in Beijing fell by 210 yuan / ton; On November 15, the mainstream price of soybean meal continued to fall, down 40 yuan / ton; Traders in Tianjin fell by about 100 yuan / ton
.
U.
S.
soybean futures closed about 0.
6%
lower as much-needed rains over the weekend helped soybean planting, and weather forecasts pointed to favorable rains in Brazil this week, putting pressure on lower international crude oil futures and uncertainty about soybean export sales outlook, but seasonal pressures began to subside near the end of the U.
S.
soybean harvest.
Domestic imported soybeans and soybean meal stocks are low status quo will improve with the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, although soybean arrivals are still low but increasing, oil mill crush volume after the recovery of soybean meal supply increased, continue to run high soybean meal spot shows obvious signs of correction, especially with the correction of soybean meal prices, traders are willing to ship, oil mills squeeze good sales without pressure, it is expected that soybean meal will continue to fluctuate weakly in recent days The probability of the market is greater
.
What's next?
Shi Hengyu, chief analyst of vegetable oil at Zhongtai Futures Research Institute, said, "In fact, from the perspective of medium-term supply and demand prospects, the decline in meal prices is a 'gray rhino' event
that will be realized sooner or later.
" In November and December, the arrival of domestic soybeans to Hong Kong will increase significantly compared with the previous months, and the shortage of feed protein supply will be greatly alleviated
with the increase in oil mill crushing.
At the same time, the relatively concentrated slaughter of pig farmers before the Spring Festival will also lead to a decline
in meal demand to a certain extent.
”
According to Liu Jin, an oil and oil analyst at Greendahua Futures, although the expected increase in follow-up supply in terms of fundamentals has brought certain pressure to the market, the reality is that the inventory of domestic soybeans, soybean meal and rapeseed meal is still at a low level in the same period of history, and inventory reconstruction still takes a while, while the spot basis is firm and rigid demand is still there, which will limit the decline of double meal
.
It is understood that in the week ended November 11, soybean stocks were 3.
22 million tons, compared with 3.
289 million tons in the previous week, a decrease of 69,000 tons; Soybean meal stocks were 163,000 tons, down 23,000 tons from 186,000 tons the previous week; Canola stocks were 82,000 tons, down 08,000 tons from 90,000 tons the week before; Rapeseed meal stocks were 02,000 tons, compared with 01,000 tons in the previous week, an increase of 01,000 tons
.
"Due to the relatively fixed shipping schedule from the origin to the domestic market, the market will not have too much error in estimating the arrival of imported soybeans in the next 1-2 months, so now whether it is spot trading or market trading sentiment, it has begun to reflect in advance the expectation that the supply side will tend to be loose in the later period
.
" However, from the current price structure, the soybean meal plate price is low, but the basis is near the historical high, the spot price has more room to decline than the futures price, we believe that the price of the meal plate may still be in a wide range of oscillation structure
.
Shi Hengyu said
.
Wei Lei, a feed breeding researcher at Yangtze River Futures, also believes that although the supply of double meal is expected to improve, it still takes time
to accumulate stocks under the background of low inventory.
According to statistics from My Agricultural Products Network, as of November 11, domestic oil mill soybean stocks were 2.
6872 million tons, and soybean meal stocks were 170,600 tons, falling for 17 consecutive weeks and the lowest level
in history.
In terms of rapeseed meal, rapeseed stocks in coastal oil mills reached 265,000 tons in the week ended November 11, which has returned to historical normal levels, but rapeseed stocks are still hovering
at record lows.
In addition, from November to December, the spot basis of domestic soybean meal was still above 500 yuan / ton, and the basis of 01 contract was more than 1300 yuan / ton; The basis of rapeseed meal 01 contract is more than
700 yuan / ton.
Under the background of high basis, the adjustment of double-meal futures is limited
.
"It should be noted that a series of domestic optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures will help boost the market's confidence in demand recovery, and the impact on the oil and fat market is greater than that of the meal market
.
" Because the prevention and control optimization measures are conducive to the recovery of the tourism and catering industries, directly increase the demand for oil and fat, support the price of fat, and have a relatively small impact on meal, although to a certain extent conducive to the recovery of various meat demand, thereby boosting the demand for feed raw materials, but the optimization of the epidemic will also alleviate the problem of unsmooth logistics to a certain extent, resulting in a decrease in transportation costs and the acceleration of the arrival of raw materials, increasing the supply of meal, so the impact is
both long and short 。 However, due to the mutation of the virus and winter weather factors, there is still a risk of further expansion of the scope and scale of the epidemic, the prevention and control situation is still severe and complex, it will take time before full opening, and the recovery of demand still needs to be observed
.
Wei Lei said
.
;
;Soybean meal spot prices fell sharply for two consecutive days
The spot price of soybean meal fell sharply for two consecutive days, and the spot price of soybean meal fell sharply for two consecutive daysAccording to the statistics of the feed industry information network, the mainstream average price of soybean meal on November 14 was 5540 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, from the market point of view, the highest price of traders in Beijing fell by 210 yuan / ton; On November 15, the mainstream price of soybean meal continued to fall, down 40 yuan / ton; Traders in Tianjin fell by about 100 yuan / ton
.
U.
S.
soybean futures closed about 0.
6%
lower as much-needed rains over the weekend helped soybean planting, and weather forecasts pointed to favorable rains in Brazil this week, putting pressure on lower international crude oil futures and uncertainty about soybean export sales outlook, but seasonal pressures began to subside near the end of the U.
S.
soybean harvest.
Domestic imported soybeans and soybean meal stocks are low status quo will improve with the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, although soybean arrivals are still low but increasing, oil mill crush volume after the recovery of soybean meal supply increased, continue to run high soybean meal spot shows obvious signs of correction, especially with the correction of soybean meal prices, traders are willing to ship, oil mills squeeze good sales without pressure, it is expected that soybean meal will continue to fluctuate weakly in recent days The probability of the market is greater
.
What's next?
What's next? What's next?Shi Hengyu, chief analyst of vegetable oil at Zhongtai Futures Research Institute, said, "In fact, from the perspective of medium-term supply and demand prospects, the decline in meal prices is a 'gray rhino' event
that will be realized sooner or later.
" In November and December, the arrival of domestic soybeans to Hong Kong will increase significantly compared with the previous months, and the shortage of feed protein supply will be greatly alleviated
with the increase in oil mill crushing.
At the same time, the relatively concentrated slaughter of pig farmers before the Spring Festival will also lead to a decline
in meal demand to a certain extent.
”
According to Liu Jin, an oil and oil analyst at Greendahua Futures, although the expected increase in follow-up supply in terms of fundamentals has brought certain pressure to the market, the reality is that the inventory of domestic soybeans, soybean meal and rapeseed meal is still at a low level in the same period of history, and inventory reconstruction still takes a while, while the spot basis is firm and rigid demand is still there, which will limit the decline of double meal
.
It is understood that in the week ended November 11, soybean stocks were 3.
22 million tons, compared with 3.
289 million tons in the previous week, a decrease of 69,000 tons; Soybean meal stocks were 163,000 tons, down 23,000 tons from 186,000 tons the previous week; Canola stocks were 82,000 tons, down 08,000 tons from 90,000 tons the week before; Rapeseed meal stocks were 02,000 tons, compared with 01,000 tons in the previous week, an increase of 01,000 tons
.
"Due to the relatively fixed shipping schedule from the origin to the domestic market, the market will not have too much error in estimating the arrival of imported soybeans in the next 1-2 months, so now whether it is spot trading or market trading sentiment, it has begun to reflect in advance the expectation that the supply side will tend to be loose in the later period
.
" However, from the current price structure, the soybean meal plate price is low, but the basis is near the historical high, the spot price has more room to decline than the futures price, we believe that the price of the meal plate may still be in a wide range of oscillation structure
.
Shi Hengyu said
.
Wei Lei, a feed breeding researcher at Yangtze River Futures, also believes that although the supply of double meal is expected to improve, it still takes time
to accumulate stocks under the background of low inventory.
According to statistics from My Agricultural Products Network, as of November 11, domestic oil mill soybean stocks were 2.
6872 million tons, and soybean meal stocks were 170,600 tons, falling for 17 consecutive weeks and the lowest level
in history.
In terms of rapeseed meal, rapeseed stocks in coastal oil mills reached 265,000 tons in the week ended November 11, which has returned to historical normal levels, but rapeseed stocks are still hovering
at record lows.
In addition, from November to December, the spot basis of domestic soybean meal was still above 500 yuan / ton, and the basis of 01 contract was more than 1300 yuan / ton; The basis of rapeseed meal 01 contract is more than
700 yuan / ton.
Under the background of high basis, the adjustment of double-meal futures is limited
.
"It should be noted that a series of domestic optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures will help boost the market's confidence in demand recovery, and the impact on the oil and fat market is greater than that of the meal market
.
" Because the prevention and control optimization measures are conducive to the recovery of the tourism and catering industries, directly increase the demand for oil and fat, support the price of fat, and have a relatively small impact on meal, although to a certain extent conducive to the recovery of various meat demand, thereby boosting the demand for feed raw materials, but the optimization of the epidemic will also alleviate the problem of unsmooth logistics to a certain extent, resulting in a decrease in transportation costs and the acceleration of the arrival of raw materials, increasing the supply of meal, so the impact is
both long and short 。 However, due to the mutation of the virus and winter weather factors, there is still a risk of further expansion of the scope and scale of the epidemic, the prevention and control situation is still severe and complex, it will take time before full opening, and the recovery of demand still needs to be observed
.
Wei Lei said
.
