Soybean meal expected to continue to shake under long-empty atmosphere

iAGShenyin Wanguo Futures Chengdu Business Department Consulting DepartmentiAGafter the Spring Festival, domestic spot soybean meal prices have been slowly rising and peaked in mid-March, followed by a slow decline, domestic supply and demand contradictions have slowed downSoybean meal futures prices were less volatile last week due to the impact of the May Day holidayAs of Friday, soybean meal futures 1309 contracts closed at 3193 yuan / ton, up 21 yuan / ton from the previous week, the volume of positions showed a small increase, market participation enthusiasm gradually increasediAGIn terms of influencing factors, first of all, U.Snonfarm payrolls were better than expectedThe U.Snonfarm payrolls rose more than expected after the April quarter, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 2008, the Labor Department said FridaySpecific data show that the Number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 165,000 in the April quarter, with an expected increase of 145,000; The strength of nonfarm payrolls has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may scale back its easingiAGThe European Central Bank cut interest ratesOn the evening of May 2nd the ECB announced that it would cut its main benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 per cent, while cutting marginal lending rates by 50 basis points to 1.0 per cent and keeping deposit rates unchangedIt was the first time since July 2012 that the ECB had raised interest rates, which would take effect on May 8, in line with market expectationsEcb President Mario Draghi said at a press conference after the rate cut that the ECB's decision to cut rates was unanimous and there was a strong consensusHe is open to negative interest rates, and when asked about the level of negative deposit rates, he said the ECB was technically readyiAGSouth American soybean shipments acceleratedSouth America's new soybean exports will pick up in 2013, with exports expected to hit a record high in May, the world said on TuesdayOil World said exports could rise to at least 10m tonnes in May, an all-time high of 9.6m tonnes recorded in May last year, and would eventually improve soybean shipments from importing countries, although it will take three to four weeks to take into account the need to reach Destinations in Asia and EuropePort congestion has slowed the export of new Brazilian soybeans, while argentine farmers' soybean sales have also been sluggish, in part because of currency dissatisfactioniAGChina's PMI for April was lower than expectedChina's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April, released on May 1st, was 50.6 per cent, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, a three-month low, and both the new orders sub-index and the production sub-index fell back, indicating that china's economy faces downside risks and growth momentum needs to be strengthenediAGThe domestic spot price difference is too largeAfter the delivery of the May contract of soybean meal, the main force in recent months became the September contract, and the price of soybean meal futures in September has been 600 yuan/tonne lower than the spot marketiAGLooking ahead, South American soybeans in May and June concentrated in Hong Kong to suppress the recent soybean meal prices, but last week's positive in Europe and the United States led to the international macro environment warming expectations and the formation of strong support for commodity pricesWith the impact of domestic bird flu waning and the delivery of the May soybean meal contract ending, the September contract is expected to fall only modestly on the back of strong spot pricesIn the short term, the soybean meal market has begun to stop the trend of falling and rebounding, the late demand side of the improvement and the loose situation of the capital side will influence its trend It is recommended to pay close attention to the pressure range of 3230-3285 above the main force 1309, if not effectively break through, soybean meal futures prices will remain volatile iAG iAG Shenyin Wanguo Futures Chengdu Business Department Consulting Department iAG after the Spring Festival, domestic spot soybean meal prices have been slowly rising and peaked in mid-March, followed by a slow decline, domestic supply and demand contradictions have slowed down Soybean meal futures prices were less volatile last week due to the impact of the May Day holiday As of Friday, soybean meal futures 1309 contracts closed at 3193 yuan / ton, up 21 yuan / ton from the previous week, the volume of positions showed a small increase, market participation enthusiasm gradually increased iAG In terms of influencing factors, first of all, U.S nonfarm payrolls were better than expected The U.S nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected after the April quarter, and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 2008, the Labor Department said Friday Specific data show that the Number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 165,000 in the April quarter, with an expected increase of 145,000; The strength of nonfarm payrolls has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may scale back its easing iAG The European Central Bank cut interest rates On the evening of May 2nd the ECB announced that it would cut its main benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 per cent, while cutting marginal lending rates by 50 basis points to 1.0 per cent and keeping deposit rates unchanged It was the first time since July 2012 that the ECB had raised interest rates, which would take effect on May 8, in line with market expectations Ecb President Mario Draghi said at a press conference after the rate cut that the ECB's decision to cut rates was unanimous and there was a strong consensus He is open to negative interest rates, and when asked about the level of negative deposit rates, he said the ECB was technically ready iAG South American soybean shipments accelerated South America's new soybean exports will pick up in 2013, with exports expected to hit a record high in May, the world said on Tuesday Oil World said exports could rise to at least 10m tonnes in May, an all-time high of 9.6m tonnes recorded in May last year, and would eventually improve soybean shipments from importing countries, although it will take three to four weeks to take into account the need to reach Destinations in Asia and Europe Port congestion has slowed the export of new Brazilian soybeans, while argentine farmers' soybean sales have also been sluggish, in part because of currency dissatisfaction iAG China's PMI for April was lower than expected China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April, released on May 1st, was 50.6 per cent, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, a three-month low, and both the new orders sub-index and the production sub-index fell back, indicating that china's economy faces downside risks and growth momentum needs to be strengthened iAG The domestic spot price difference is too large After the delivery of the May contract of soybean meal, the main force in recent months became the September contract, and the price of soybean meal futures in September has been 600 yuan/tonne lower than the spot market iAG Looking ahead, South American soybeans in May and June concentrated in Hong Kong to suppress the recent soybean meal prices, but last week's positive in Europe and the United States led to the international macro environment warming expectations and the formation of strong support for commodity prices With the impact of domestic bird flu waning and the delivery of the May soybean meal contract ending, the September contract is expected to fall only modestly on the back of strong spot prices In the short term, the soybean meal market has begun to stop the trend of falling and rebounding, the late demand side of the improvement and the loose situation of the capital side will influence its trend It is recommended to pay close attention to the pressure range of 3230-3285 above the main force 1309, if not effectively break through, soybean meal futures prices will remain volatile iAG