Soybean meal at home and abroad will remain strong in the second and third quarters of this year

Introduction: at present, at the top of the soybean and soybean meal market in the middle and mid-term is prevalent In this regard, Liu RI, an analyst in the mid-term of Liaoning Province, believes that due to the tight Inventory Pattern at home and abroad, the contradiction between supply and demand will become increasingly prominent The price rise of surrounding agricultural products, including the overall rise of prices, will become a comprehensive driving force for the rise The big rise of international and domestic soybean market and the small return of bull market will become inevitable The prices of international and domestic soybean and soybean meal will become inevitable In the second and third quarters, there will be another strong rally, which is expected to accelerate GHG - international market: the CBOT soybean market will become the most direct driving force for the rise of international and domestic soybean prices in the second and third quarters 1、 The pattern of world soybean supply and demand still maintains a pattern of supply slightly less than demand The reduction of American soybean production last year changed the pattern of world soybean supply and demand Although South American soybean production increased substantially, this is only the most basic condition necessary to maintain the balance of supply and demand According to the April supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the annual output of global soybeans reached 19404 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% Among them, the increase in output of South American soybeans has become a continuous bright spot in the global soybean production At present, the total output of South American soybeans is 89.9 million tons, accounting for 46% of the total output of global soybeans In 2002 / 03, the U.S share of global soybeans fell to 38% from 43% last year due to the reduction of soybean production caused by weather and drought In the year of GHG 2002 / 03, the global soybean consumption reached 19451 million tons, and the soybean demand increased by 5.6% year on year In 2002 / 03, the gap between global supply and demand of soybeans reached 450000 tons, which is the first pattern that supply exceeds demand in recent years This gap between supply and demand led to a decrease of nearly 1 million tons of global soybean transfer inventory in 2002 / 03 compared with 32.03 million tons in the previous year, and the total transfer inventory was 31.08 million tons The global soybean inventory consumption ratio dropped to 12% from 13.4% in the previous year Although the inventory consumption ratio is still higher than that of 8.4% in 1996, the inventory of South America accounts for an important proportion in the world The soybean inventory of Brazil and Argentina reaches 22.2 million tons, accounting for 71% of the total global soybean inventory, which is the same as that of South America only accounting for 50% of the global soybean inventory in the previous year The share between the left and the right is quite different, and last year South American soybean stocks accounted for 66% of the total global soybean stocks GHG 2 The domestic soybean inventory in the United States continues to decline, and it is expected to adjust the soybean transfer inventory data in the subsequent stage The soybean inventory data is expected to be lowered to the low point since 1970, becoming the most direct driving force for CBOT soybean price rise The demand for soybeans in the GHG world is still in good momentum, and the psychology of the shrinking supply of soybeans in the United States is strengthening, which supports the price of CBOT soybeans to rise above 600 (mainly referring to the contracts before November 2003) In April's supply and demand report, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that U.S soybean ending inventory in 2002 / 03 would drop to 145 million bushels, the lowest inventory value since 1996 / 97 However, according to many CBOT traders and analysts, due to strong U.S soybean exports, the data would drop to 100-120 million bushels If the U.S Department of agriculture in successive reports to reduce U.S soybean stocks to this level, then soybean stocks will probably be the lowest since 1970 According to statistics from the United States commodity research agency, the transfer inventory in 1996 / 97 was 132 million bushels (3.58 million tons), the second inventory low since 1970 In that year, the highest price of CBOT soybean contract hit 903.5, and the first low was 103 million bushels (2.8 million tons) in 1975 / 76 At that time, the price was at that time Break through the 1000 mark and press forward to 1100 The shortage of domestic soybean stocks of GHG in the United States has brought dealers and traders the psychological expectation that there will be problems in supply in the future The tension between supply and demand in the United States is very severe According to the 145 million bushels of U.S soybean transfer inventory released in April, its inventory consumption ratio in 2002 / 03 has reached 5.2%, lower than the 5.4% inventory consumption ratio in 1996 / 97 If the current inventory level of U.S soybean fulfills the market analyst's forecast of 110 million-120 million bushels, its domestic soybean inventory consumption ratio will directly approach the second lowest level in 1972 / 73 Point 4.6% and 1964 historical low of 4.0% The current chart can see the high 1290 was created in 1973 The expectation that history will repeat will stimulate traders' rich imagination and stimulate CBOT soybean prices to continue to rise GHG 3, strong export and strong demand of China have become and will continue to be the fuse of CBOT soybean upward According to the latest statistics of the U.S Department of agriculture, as of May 1, the cumulative sales volume of U.S soybeans in this market year reached 27.4516 million tons, 1.9% higher than the sales volume of 26.9447 million tons in the same period of last year, while the U.S Department of agriculture expects the export sales volume to be 2708 this year Ten thousand tons, which means the USDA will continue to raise the export data of us soybeans in May and subsequent reports, which will undoubtedly add to the already tight domestic inventory of GHG As of May 1, the cumulative export shipment volume of us soybeans in this market year was 25.2826 million tons, compared with 24.236 million tons in the same period of last year, including 7.5689 million tons sold to China and 4.3208 million tons in the same period of last year At present, all American soybeans in 2002 / 03 ordered by China have been shipped, but 115000 tons of soybeans in 2003 / 04 have been ordered but not shipped, which was 113000 tons in the same period last year GHG - domestic market: GHG 1 The change of varieties in domestic soybean futures market means that the market will review the supply-demand relationship of soybean, because the delivery target is The concept of domestic third-class commodity beans and non genetically modified food beans will be officially recognized by the market As the number of domestic soybean delivery meeting the standards is becoming less and less, the contradiction between supply and demand will become increasingly prominent It can be said that the number of warehouse receipt registration of Dalian soybean, or the relationship between supply and demand of domestic soybean, will still determine the trend of prices in the later period At present, although there are different views on the domestic soybean inventory in Northeast China, the limited quantity of soybean with good quality has become the consensus of the market, and the delivery soybean that can meet the standards is very small According to the warehouse receipt registration of Dalian Commodity Exchange, as of April 25, the total registered warehouse receipt of Dalian soybean designated warehouse was only 787.8 million tons It is difficult to understand such a low inventory delivery After all, the soybean price in Dalian market has risen to more than 2900 yuan / ton in May There is a price difference of 400 yuan / ton compared with the soybean price of 2500 yuan / ton in the production area Although it is expected that 300000 tons of soybean will be stored in the designated warehouse in Dalian in May, the peak season of using food beans has not yet come in July, which forms such a tense situation And the awkward situation of subsequent contract warehouse receipt registration can be imagined GHG 2 Domestic soybean inventory continues to decline, with few sources of supply According to the statistics of soybean inventory in Heilongjiang Province by professional market analysts, as of the end of April, the soybean inventory in Heilongjiang Province is estimated to be about 850000 tons In addition to the local storage and seed production, plus the inventory of local oil plants, only 400000 tons of soybeans are available for circulation However, according to the current situation of 150000-200000 tons of soybeans outflow every month, the local soybean inventory in Heilongjiang Province is large The soybean inventory can be maintained up to the end of June at most Although 93 group has about 300000 tons of soybean Inventory (most of which need to be maintained for production, some of which are high in water, and the quality is difficult to meet the delivery standards of the exchange), the number of registered warehouse receipts can be formed is quite limited The outbreak of "SARS" will lead to the change of food structure, increase the consumption of food and soybeans, and cause trouble for railway transportation The "SARS" has led to a significant change in the food structure represented by Hong Kong The consumption of meat products has declined in a straight line, and green and healthy food is favored by consumers At the same time, in recent years, people's demand and consumption for soybean products and high protein soybean products are increasing Although the relevant domestic prediction agencies estimate that the monthly consumption of food soybeans is about 600000 tons, the actual monthly consumption of food soybeans may exceed this value, which means that the supply-demand relationship in the field of food soybeans circulation will be in a more tense situation, which will be highlighted in 6 At the end of the month and the beginning of July, it may be reflected in the futures market more ahead of time The outbreak of "SARS" in GHG has also brought special control over railway transportation in some areas, which has caused trouble for soybean transportation GHG 4 The short-term and long-term effects of transgenic policies on China's soybean industry are far-reaching According to the actual demand of feed crushing enterprises, the state may adjust and control the import quantity and pace of soybean in stages, which will catalyse the domestic soybean price to a certain extent, and also support the domestic soybean meal price Due to the formal implementation of the genetically modified policy last year, the domestic soybean inventory has been completely emptied This year's large-scale purchase from the north to the northeast of the oil factory and the rapid expansion of the pressing enterprises in the 93rd of the producing area led to the premature introduction of the domestic soybean pressing market In the first quarter of this year, the American soybean purchased by China completed the total purchase of last year As of May 1, the total purchase of 7568900 tons had been completed Ministry in place, compared with 4.2110 million tons in the same period last year At the same time, according to the statistics of foreign businessmen, the quantity of soybeans ordered from South America in China is also nearly 10 million tons GHG of course, for the soybean meal market, everything is not so optimistic, the international and domestic soybean meal market will present a phased departure, and the domestic market is more subject to the changes of the international soybean meal market and the international market soybean price With the passage of time, GHG entered the peak consumption season of soybean meal in May, June and July According to the past practice, the price of soybean meal will rise steadily, but the price trend of soybean meal in the second quarter is complicated by the emergence of "SARS" The rising prices of soybean and soybean meal in GHG international market will provide favorable support for soybean meal market prices After the sharp rise of CBOT soybean price in the first quarter, it is expected to continue to rise to a new high in the second quarter under the stimulation of the subject matter of tight domestic soybean inventory in the United States By the end of May 9, CBOT soybean price in July had risen to 638 cents / bushel, and the spot soybean price in the international market also rose at the same time As a result, the import cost price of China's soybean rose to more than 2600 yuan / ton, leading to Hong Kong The suspension of production of some enterprises and the shortage of goods in some areas will have a supporting effect on the price of soybean meal The spread of "SARS" may be related to the epidemic of livestock and poultry, which will directly affect the demand of feed and breeding enterprises for raw grain It is reported that at present, the export of Broilers and pigs in China has been suspended, and the main sales areas in the South generally hold a wait-and-see mentality to continue to purchase corn, soybean meal and other bulk feed materials, and the procurement enthusiasm is obviously affected In the long run, if the SARS epidemic continues to spread, the pathogen can not be confirmed, or the pathogen is determined to be livestock and poultry, from the perspective of public consumption mentality, people's demand for animal products is bound to continue to decrease, which will further aggravate the downturn in feed and breeding industry, resulting in reduced demand for corn, soybean meal and other bulk feed raw materials, and then lead to soybean The lower price will also affect the import of soybean and the export of soybean meal At present,