Soybean market: Prospect of soybean market from the "93" oil declaration

Introduction: Jiu San oil statement gives the confidence of bullish market and long market last week From a statement of Jiu San oil, a famous domestic soybean pressing enterprise, we can basically see the basic views and attitudes of the current soybean pressing enterprises towards the development of the future market and spot market of the whole soybean 93 oil statement: Recently, the futures market rumors that 93 oil is ready to short the soybean contract in September, avoiding the risk of the existing soybean inventory price falling In response, Tian Renli, general manager of Jiusan oil group, made it clear that the rumor was pure speculation, and Jiusan oil group had no intention of shorting in September at all First, as an important member of national soybean processing enterprises, Jiu San oil will not do anything harmful to the development of the industry when the national industry temporarily encounters difficulties Second, we are confident in the spot price in September In view of the small processing pressure, it is more important to maintain the continuity and stability of the spot market Third, in 2003 / 2004, the soybean disaster was relatively large and the quality was relatively low Most of the soybean could only be used for oil processing, and few of them met the delivery standard In fact, this statement gives us a hint: as a famous grease group in China, Its attitude has been very clear, and it will not sell soybeans in the process of rising the contract in September, which will reduce the pressure of future futures prices At present, the status of spot stock in the whole spot market, in Heilongjiang, the main production area, can organize delivery of soybeans will not exceed 200000 tons, which is less than 200000 tons of soybeans, most of which are in 93 oil and some of them In the hands of processors, as long as there is no arbitrage operation in 93 oil, the number of deliveries available in the spot market will be very small before the listing of new beans this year, and there will not be a large number of deliveries Jiu San oil is optimistic about the spot price of domestic soybean in September The main reason is that the supply of domestic spot market in September is likely to be extremely tense during the traditional out of stock period As a spot processing enterprise, its sensitivity to the expectation and Prospect of spot price also reminds us of the trading direction in the futures market In the third statement, in combination with the current situation of domestic soybeans, especially Heilongjiang, the main production area, the consumption of soybean payment, soybean milk and other soybean products began to increase after entering summer It is preliminarily estimated that at least a part of the consumption will be consumed before the delivery in September In addition, the consumption of edible soybeans in the whole country, currently the 200000 tons of edible soybeans are estimated to be few, No more than 100000 tons of soybeans can be delivered in Hei, Ji and Liao provinces in Northeast China It does not include the increase of storage cost and water loss of soybeans in summer The deliverable soybeans in other provinces are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei and Liaoning Shandong and Hebei are the key shipping stations of soybean in Heilongjiang Province At the same time, these two areas are also impacted by imported soybean, which belong to the competition between imported soybean and domestic soybean As we know, there is a part of soybean storage in Shandong at present, of which the deliverable quantity is about 50000 tons, while the quantity in Hebei is very small, mainly processing imported soybean