Soybean decline will continue

Introduction: Under the background of global economic growth slowing down and falling into recession, under the constraints of the negative supply-demand relationship of the increase of soybean production in the northern hemisphere of the United States and China, the sharp increase of soybean planting area in the southern hemisphere, and the lack of significant expansion of demand and consumption, Dalian soybean is running in a downward trend along with the CBOT soybean market in the United States The author here tries to make an analysis of the international and domestic soybean trends Next analysis and prospect 1、 Analysis of the supply and demand relationship of soybean market at home and abroad The global soybean output is 175.44 million tons, an increase of 2.26 million tons compared with 173.18 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%; the US soybean output is 79.12 million tons, an increase of 4.06 million tons compared with 75.06 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%; Brazil soybean output is 41.5 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons compared with 38.4 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%; Argentina soybean output is 27 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.6 million tons 500000 tons increased by 500000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; China's soybean production was 15 million tons, an increase of 710000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, compared with 14.29 million tons last year The global soybean crush volume is 152.11 million tons, an increase of 5.42 million tons compared with 146.69 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; the US soybean crush volume is 45.18 million tons, an increase of 510000 tons compared with 44.67 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; Brazil soybean crush volume is 23 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared with 22 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%; Argentina soybean crush volume is 18.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% Last year's 17.7 million tons increased by 1.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; China's soybean crushing capacity was 21.6 million tons, an increase of 2.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.7% The above-mentioned supply-demand comparison of global soybean and main soybean producing countries shows a buyer's market pattern of serious oversupply, which leads to the global soybean market price maintaining a downward trend The global soybean ending inventory is 29.04 million tons, down 520000 tons from last year's 28.52 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year; the U.S soybean ending inventory is 9.39 million tons, up 2.64 million tons from last year's 6.75 million tons, up 39.1% year-on-year; Brazil's soybean ending inventory is 6.9 million tons, down 700000 tons from last year's 7.6 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year; Argentina's soybean ending inventory is 6.1 million tons Compared with last year's 6.63 million tons, it decreased by 530000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8% China's soybean ending inventory was 4.22 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 840000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% Compared with the inventory increase and decrease of the above major soybean producing countries, it can be seen that although the global soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory increase of the United States exceeded that of Brazil, Argentina and China Analysis of the relationship between soybean supply and demand in the United States The soybean planting area in the United States is 75.2 million acres, an increase of 900000 acres over 74.3 million acres last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; the harvested area is 74.1 million acres, an increase of 1.7 million acres over 72.4 million acres last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; the unit soybean production is 39.2 bushels / acre, an increase of 1.1 bushels / acre over 38.1 bushels last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; and the total supply is 8595 Million tons, an increase of 2.89 million tons compared with 83.06 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% The total demand consumption is 76.56 million tons, an increase of 250000 tons compared with 76.31 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% The total supply is greater than the total demand consumption of 9.39 million tons, an increase of 2.64 million tons compared with 6.75 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 28.1% The average soybean price is 3.9-4.7 US dollars / bushel, that is, 4.3 US dollars / bushel , down $0.25/bushel from $4.55/bushel last year, down 5.5% year-on-year, indicating that the average soybean price fell due to the short supply-demand relationship in the United States 2、 Analysis of the relationship between the main positions of CBOT soybeans and the trend of futures price From July 3 to July 17, the closing price of S111, the main soybean contract of CBOT in the US market, rose 47.2 cents / bushel By increasing multiple orders and reducing short orders, the fund increased its net multiple orders by 20619, which fully explained the operation strategy of the fund's position expansion and pursuit period price Although the commercial companies increased multiple orders, the increase of empty orders was more, which led to an increase of 26513 in their net orders, reflecting the adverse trend Code selling operation strategy: Although the net multiple orders of the fund are in a profitable State, they can't be realized because the commercial companies haven't taken the initiative to stop losses From July 17 to October 9, the closing price of S111 contract fell by 71.6 cents / bushel, and broke through the early rising point The multiple orders of the fund stop losses and cut their positions At the same time, the short orders were added, resulting in a sharp decrease of 41289 net multiple orders and multiple orders of the commercial companies As a result, 46730 shares of the fund's net orders were reduced Obviously, the loss of the fund was transferred to the profit of the commercial company By comparing the price of CBOT soybeans in meipan with the net multiple orders of main funds and the net space orders of commercial companies, it is not difficult to find out: 1 In the rising trend, the fund adopts the strategy of actively chasing the rising, taking the strategy of actively killing the falling in the falling trend, while the commercial company adopts the strategy of selling short in the rising trend, and taking the strategy of bargain hunting in the falling trend, which shows that the fund pays more attention to the trend in the operation, while the commercial company pays more attention to the price in the operation, and the fund is more active in the operation Commercial companies are passive and defensive in operation Therefore, at the beginning of the trend, they should pay close attention to the positions of funds, and at the end of the trend, they should pay close attention to the positions of commercial companies 2 In the declining trend, both the net multiple fund orders and the commercial company's clearance orders are continuously withdrawn, which indicates that the fund multiple stop loss positions are cut, the commercial company's clearance orders gain back and make up, and the falling power is released Meanwhile, the comparison between the fund and the commercial company shows that the former is weak, while the latter is strong As long as the position position of the fund does not turn into the net space, the position Department of the commercial company If the number does not turn to net, the downward trend will still be maintained The main profit and loss comparison between the two sides shows the pattern of fund loss and commercial company profit 3 For domestic futures investors, although they are not strictly divided into funds and commercial companies, they can still be divided into speculative and hedging arbitrage funds Obviously, speculative funds can refer to the fund's more trend oriented operation strategy, while hedging arbitrage funds can refer to the commercial company's more price biased operation strategy 4 The medium and long-term trend of CBOT soybean in the US market is still in the low 420-440 cents / bushel region and the high 500-520 cents / bushel region There will be a greater risk of chasing up and down near the above extreme price compared with the low absorption and high throw Accordingly, the medium and long-term trend of Dalian soybean in China is basically in the low 1800-1900 yuan / ton and the high 2300-2400 region In the trend of consolidation, there will be a greater risk of chasing the rise and killing the fall near the above-mentioned extreme price compared with low absorption and high selling 3、 Us CBOT soybean main contract S111 trend analysis Us CBOT soybean main contract S111 K-line combination shows that the average system which presents a typical short position arrangement trend suppresses the period price continuously At present, the period price has fallen to 420-440 US cents / bushel low area, and is close to the April 23 low point of 417.4 US cents / bushel Although the future market may rebound slightly technically, it is likely to continue to test the above low point downward Week K The combination of lines shows that the average system of the same short position arrangement still suppresses the period price to decline gradually, and will test the supporting role of 420 cents / bushel in the early stage The combination of monthly K lines shows that although the average system is not in short position, the monthly line has fallen below all the average lines, and will continue to decline to seek support In a word, the downward target of CBOT soybean main contract in US market is 420 cents / bushel Near the ear 4、 Dalian soybean trend analysis As Dalian Commodity Exchange carries out the delivery system of quality inspection on all warehouse receipts on April 30 every year, the trend of Dalian soybean short-term and long-term contracts tends to separate and present a comparative trend of near weak and far strong Among them, the contracts of S111, S201 and S203 in the near future are subject to the pressure of heavy warehouse receipts, and the contracts of S205, S207 and S209 in the long term are subject to the main force Due to capital factor, it is slightly resistant to decline At present, Dalian Commodity Exchange has deposited 26386 registered warehouse receipts, namely 263860 tons In recent years, the unilateral position of S111 contract is less than 6000, namely less than 60000 tons, and the unilateral position of forward 201 contract is less than 44000, namely less than 440000 tons Obviously, the forward S201 contract will bear heavy real market pressure on warehouse receipts, which leads to the recent closing of S111, S201 and S203 The long-term contracts such as S205, S207 and S209 have not been directly under the pressure of warehouse orders The negative effects of China's accession to the WTO and the policy factors of genetically modified profits are intertwined, which makes the long-term and short-term parties actively expand their positions Although the international and domestic soybean fundamentals are generally short, the main funds of the short side cannot be converted due to the absorption of the main funds Now profit, the future market in the downward trend still has the possibility of repeated oscillation finishing The falling targets of S205, S207 and S209 contracts are respectively 2012 (0.618 reversion of previous increase of 1780-2388), around 20502100 To sum up, under the influence of the fundamentals and main capital factors of the domestic and international soybean market short, Dalian soybean will still keep the linkage downward trend with CBOT soybean in the US market, so investors should mainly sell short at high price.