Sow elimination intensified, piglets were fried to 1600 yuan, pig prices are going to explode again?

Regarding the domestic pig breeding volume, the latest news released by the official is that the country can breed 41.61 million sows, pig storage volume of 407 million, whether sows or pigs have been months in a row months of growth.
Although there is no official data on the storage of pigs and sows in January 2021, we know from other media that sows throughout the country have been badly damaged from north to south, especially in Hebei, Shandong and Henan regions, where sows have lost at least 30% of their storage and more than 50% in serious areas.
This problem with pig "devil" is indissoluct, poor resistance of winter pigs, coupled with the fifth disease, blue ear and other traditional diseases of recessive infection, further reduce the resistance of pigs, and the current prevention and control of "devil" the most effective way is disinfection, winter temperature is lower, disinfection effect has dropped significantly, overlaying the northern production capacity recovered earlier and faster, this round of elimination of the north significantly higher than the south.
not only retail farmers, the group pig farm has not been spared, some industry insiders said, Guangdong Shaoguan Group pig farm was particularly badly damaged.
Group pig farm sow elimination intensified, piglet supply is obviously insufficient, especially some of the company and farmers as the development model of pig farms, in order not to affect the follow-up pig out of the column volume, in the market opened a piglets to buy war.
the second half of 2020 the group to buy pig seedlings or pick and choose, a one-time provision of 800-1200 head, less than 600 head do not consider acquisition, but now 300 head are closed.
Piglet price is a rise and rise, the current price of 14 catties just weaned piglets has reached 1600 yuan / head, there are experts analysis, if the group to rob pigs constantly, piglet prices may even return to 2000 yuan a head.
, sow elimination is serious, piglet prices are fried old high, does not mean that pig prices will explode again? At present, there are two views in the industry: one view is that the group pig farm to rob pigs is not because the number of piglets in the market is too small or the group pig farm sow damage is serious, but only the group pig farm in advance layout, after all, 2019 and 2020 group pig farm in all parts of the crazy circle to build a factory, from the birth of sows to the birth of its piglets, the middle needs at least a year, the pig farm built a long time, in order to put into production outside the purchase of piglets is a good choice.
in southern China, where semen is in business, say sales of pig essence are now basically at non-epidemic levels, suggesting that sow production capacity is still high.
this also confirms the above view from the side.
Another view is that the group pig farm snapped up piglets entirely because of the serious damage to their sows, and the group pig farms are listed enterprises, in order to ensure normal profitability, can only buy piglets to ensure the number of pigs out of the column.
the above two views, the author is more inclined to the second view, the group pig farm to rob pigs more because the sow damage to ensure that the amount of the last act.
although in the current pig price and "devil" state of prevention and control, large-scale elimination is unlikely, more are tooth-pulling elimination, but sow damage has been a real hammer thing.
can also be speculated that the price of pigs in 2021 will not be the difference.
the sudden fall in pig prices in December and January is highly likely to be due to the "devil" attack, so it can be speculated how hard the price of pigs is falling at the time, and how violent the late rise is.