Six effects of SARS on grain and oil market

First, the impact of SARS on the retail market The most direct impact of jc5 SARS on the grain and oil market is manifested in small package grain products, edible oil and other life-related products Because of the panic of SARS, in order to reduce going out and prevent the price rise, people will increase the purchase of necessities, and the sales of finished grain and edible oil as necessities will be greatly increased in a short time, which will also lead to the corresponding increase of their prices For example, in Guangdong, where SARS first appeared, and Beijing, where SARS was a serious disaster, there was a rush to buy the finished grain and oil retail market in the early stage, and it spread to the surrounding areas Similar situations have occurred in other regions of China, resulting in the rapid growth of flour and rice sales in some regions in recent days, and even out of stock situation Also affected by SARS, the sales volume of some foods decreased significantly According to the investigation of the relevant departments of the state, the food categories with the largest increase in domestic sales under the attack of SARS are as follows: dairy products, small package refined oil, salt and seasoning, convenience food, rice, flour and vermicelli; the food categories with the largest decrease in domestic sales under the attack of SARS are as follows: poultry, light aquatic products, seafood, ham sausage, beer, cooked meat products, eggs and bulk refined oil This shows people's purchasing psychology during the SARS period Jc5 with the maturity of people's psychology and the emergency notice issued by the State Food Administration on April 25, asking all regions to do a good job in ensuring the supply of grain and oil in the market, this rapid and substantial increase can only be a short-term phenomenon, and it will surely fall back For example, the residents' travel and purchasing psychology in Beijing and Guangzhou, the key areas of SARS, is gradually returning to normal But the sales volume and price of grain and oil products are higher than before SARS Jc5 2 The impact of SARS on grain market Jc5 wheat: the effect of SARS on wheat is mainly on flour consumption Due to the fact that rice consumption is the main factor in southern China and flour consumption is mainly in restaurants, the reason for SARS is that Since the outbreak of SARS, the sales volume of high-quality wheat and flour in the south of the Yangtze River has remained at a low level The sales volume of local flour in some flour mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China, and that in some flour mills in Henan and Shandong have generally decreased by 20-30% in the same ratio However, with the consumption of urban residents in Guangdong and some southern areas gradually out of the shadow of SARS, flour consumption is also becoming normal According to some flour mills in Henan Province, the main wheat producing province, the number of flour sold by some flour mills in the province has increased recently to Guangdong and other provinces in South China At the same time, it should also be noted that the residents in the North mainly consume flour, in order to reduce going out, they have also increased the reserves of daily necessities such as flour The downstream products of flour, such as instant noodles, noodles and biscuits, will also increase the consumption of wheat Jc5 maize: the main effect of SARS on maize is feed consumption Due to the sharp decrease of outdoor catering consumption caused by the spread of SARS and people's fear of buying livestock and manufactured products, the consumption of breeding and livestock products in China has decreased recently, which has significantly affected the total consumption of feed corn In East China, the sales of corn and other bulk feedstuff materials have declined significantly in recent years The impact has spread to Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanghai and Jiangxi, and it is linked with Guangdong The current aquaculture efficiency in East China is very low At present, the spread of SARS has also led to a certain potential impact on the export of corn However, SARS has not yet become a real factor affecting the export of corn in China, but only stays in the stage of psychological impact Jc5 rice: SARS has a great impact on the price of rice, especially rice Affected by the panic atmosphere of SARS, especially in large and medium-sized cities, there was a phenomenon of rush buying The price of rice rose rapidly, basically by 200 yuan / ton In high-end areas, it reached 500 yuan / ton This round of price rise is caused by the concentrated purchase and short-term storage of residents With the increase of supply in the later period and the macro-control of the state, the price will soon be stable Jc5 breeding industry: the current efficiency of breeding industry in East China is very low Since April, the market prices of chickens and ducklings have dropped 40-50% compared with the beginning of this year, and the market demand is still low As a result of this situation, after entering the peak consumption season in April, the number of poultry seedlings generally decreased Jc5 3 The impact of SARS on the oil market Jc5 soybean: SARS has no direct impact on the soybean market It is mainly achieved indirectly through the impact on its downstream products, mainly reflected in the increase of demand for soybean oil and the decrease of demand for soybean meal Due to people's panic about SARS, some areas have the phenomenon of purchasing edible oil including soybean oil and storing it in a small amount at home, which makes the demand for soybean oil increase in a short time On the other hand, because of the rumor that "SARS" may be passed on to human beings through livestock and poultry, people reduce their consumption, and some countries also reduce or prohibit the import of fresh livestock and poultry and their processed products, which strikes at the breeding industry, which slows down the purchase of soybean meal, thus reducing the demand for soybean meal Jc5 edible oil: recently affected by SARS, the prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the main edible oil varieties in different regions, rose first and then fell Since mid April, with SARS In our country, edible oil, as one of the necessities of life, has also become the object of rush purchase and a small amount of reserve, which makes the demand of edible oil increase for a short time The market prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil in various parts of the country rise first and then fall, mainly because the people in some areas are worried about the development of "non-standard" epidemic situation, leading to rush purchase of soybean oil The measures of timely allocation of materials adopted by local governments have stabilized the market supply and demand in a short period of time, and the market price has fallen rapidly, but the price is still higher than that of the same period last month It should be pointed out that edible oil is a commodity with low elasticity of consumption demand in a short period of time Therefore, at present, residents rush to buy Edible Oil in the later period in advance Jc54 Affected by SARS, the volume of bulk grain trade and the volume of transportation and sales in production and marketing areas will be affected Jc5 was affected by SARS, the normal logistics of grain market was damaged, and the normal development of market purchase, sale, transportation and trade activities was seriously affected by the increasing efforts to prevent and control SARS in various regions A lot of railway capacity has been called up recently to strengthen the prevention of SARS The arrival progress of export wheat and import soybean in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province continues to show a sluggish state due to the obvious shortage of railway transportation capacity Jc5 strictly prevented the spread of SARS in all parts of the country Recently, automobile transportation in Northeast China was strictly controlled Some traders reported that licensed automobiles outside Liaoning Province were strictly inspected in the province, which led to the increase of transportation cost and transportation risk At the same time, dealers and grain storage enterprises also responded to the decrease of corn trading volume in the region compared with that before May 1 Due to the strengthening of vehicle screening in Liaoning Province, the corn supply in northern Hebei Province is insufficient, which leads to the increase of corn price However, due to the failure of normal transportation of corn in Northeast China, corn in Northeast China will also fall slightly in mid May In terms of soybeans, the railway and automobile transportation are not normal, which will also promote the price of soybeans in inland areas to rise due to temporary shortage Jc5 The impact of SARS on import and export Although there is no authoritative organization in jc5 claiming that SARS can be transmitted by poultry and livestock, SARS still has a huge impact on export-oriented breeding enterprises in China Japan's Ministry of agriculture, forestry and Fisheries announced in mid May that the Japanese government decided to temporarily ban the import of poultry products from China in view of the detection of avian influenza virus (H5N1) in duck products imported from China European countries have also reduced their deep-processing products on the basis of the reduction of fresh products China's foreign ministry announced on May 8 that 109 countries had taken measures to restrict the entry of tourists from China by the end of the day The potential impact of SARS on China's import and export work will continue to exist Jc5 6 SARS will also have an impact on the coming summer harvest Jc5 entered the first ten days of May, and rapeseed harvesting began In the second ten days of May and the beginning of June, wheat harvesting began However, a large number of migrant workers could not return on time, and some large-scale harvesting units could not operate across provinces, which would affect the progress of summer harvest This summer's harvest is expected to be delayed compared with the normal year In the aspect of new grain purchase, out of the panic of SARS, quite a number of storage enterprises have no normal operation and only rely on telephone contact, which will affect the purchase progress and quantity Due to the fact that it may take several months for jc5 to completely eliminate the influence of SARS virus, its adverse impact on China's grain market will continue in the later stage This means that the problem of SARS virus will become an important factor, not only in a short period of time, affecting the grain market in China JC5