Since mid July, the domestic oil market has continued to show a weak trend

Introduction: since the middle of July, the prices of the main varieties in the domestic edible oil market have risen and fallen differently, but the market transactions have not been significantly enlarged According to the analysis of the insiders, in the future, the overall situation of the domestic oil market can not be blindly optimistic, the overall oil market will continue to show a weak trend, and the time for a sharp rebound in market prices is not yet ripe The main reasons are as follows: first, due to the recent domestic soybean import restrictions, many domestic oil plants are facing the shortage of raw materials, many of which have been shut down, the supply of domestic soybean oil and bean salad is in short supply, and driven by the increase in the external market, so the domestic soybean oil market has a promising recovery However, according to the latest report, the price of soybean oil and soybean salad (above referred to as soybean oil) in China has become stable, the cost of soybean import has been reduced, and the price of soybean oil is difficult to rise In June, the domestic manufacturers cancelled the contract of importing soybeans at the early stage, which reduced the cost of importing soybeans at the later stage However, the domestic port stocks and the soybeans arriving at the port in succession are enough to ensure the squeezing of oil plants Therefore, the increase in the domestic soybean oil market price at the later stage will not last long Second, the demand for soybean oil is low, and the large amount of crude soybean oil imports have caused great pressure on the domestic soybean oil market 7 August is the summer season in China, and domestic soybean oil consumption will remain low In June, China imported nearly 200000 tons of crude soybean oil In the first half of the year, the cumulative import volume was 1.4 million tons, twice the same period of last year It is expected that the third quarter will still see a large amount of goods delivered The oil factory has a great sales pressure In the later period, it is more likely that the oil factory will continue to reduce the sales price to stimulate spot transactions Third, at present, the purchase of rapeseed in China has entered the mid-term In addition, affected by the cross provincial purchase of rapeseed, the continuous acceleration of rapeseed consumption in oil plants, and the uncertainty of the speed of soybean import and license issuance, will make the price of domestic rapeseed fluctuate in the near future However, due to the current low consumption season of rapeseed and the peak price of rapeseed meal coming into the market, the price of rapeseed will be weakened, It is unlikely that the price of rapeseed will go up or down Fourth, the price of peanut oil raw materials has fallen quietly, which has led to a significant correction in the market price of crude oil However, the market sales are still not very active Because there is still a big gap between the price of crude oil and the price of brown oil, many hotels, restaurants and food manufacturers have turned their attention to the relatively low price brown oil market, so many dealers in the market are turning to raw oil It is common that palm oil and other edible oils are mixed in the oil, and the market price competition is very fierce, so the overall price of the oil market is depressed Fifthly, BMD crude palm oil contract price dropped significantly in recent months, which affected the sharp decline of palm oil price in the international spot market, resulting in the corresponding lower cost of imported refined palm oil in the later period, and increased traders' worry about the future bearish It is expected that on the premise of no significant growth in domestic market transactions, once the foreign palm oil futures and spot prices continue to fall in the future, it is expected that the short-term domestic palm oil spot prices will continue to show downward space In addition, the total inventory of palm oil in domestic ports has reached about 250000 tons, and the shipment situation is still slow compared with the inventory, so the market pressure is large According to information, Malaysia's crude palm oil production will be abnormally high in the second half of the year In 2004, the annual output of Malaysian crude palm oil is expected to increase to 13.5 million tons, 150000 tons more than the previous year Production growth is expected to be 44% in the first half and 56% in the second half So in the second half of this year, monthly palm oil production will reach an all-time high of 1.3 million tons This will to a large extent inhibit the later price rise of palm oil To sum up, as the third quarter is the off-season of domestic consumption of edible oil, the possibility of oversupply in the domestic oil market in the later period will increase, and the weakening oscillation of the external futures market will also have a certain negative impact on the domestic edible oil market, and it is expected that the domestic oil market price in the later period will be dominated by stable and declining market.