Shandong Province issues pig industry monitoring warning: production capacity decline, increased operational difficulties

9FVsince August last year, some provinces in the country have experienced an outbreak of swine fever in Africa, which has had a certain impact on the pig industryAccording to the request of the provincial committee and the provincial government, the provincial animal husbandry and veterinary bureau organized the dynamic monitoring of the operation of pig industry, timely grasp the expected changes in the industry, and scientifically guide the production of pigsAccording to the January monitoring results, the province's pig production is relatively stable, short-term supply and demand is stable, production capacity decreased slightly, operating difficulties increasedThe specific analysis is as follows:9FV, the current situation of pig production and marketing
9FV(i) pig production and marketing situationAugust-December 2018, affected by the outbreak of African swine fever in some provinces and regions, pig farms around the introduction, complement column enthusiasm was frustrated, the production and marketing of pig breeds in our province suffered a greater impact, pig storage column fell by about 10%, sales showed a significant decline9FV
(2) The situation of commodity pigsIn 2018, the province's pig stock of 29.856 million head, down 1.8% YoY, can breed sows 3.086 million head, down 5.7% YoY, pig output of 50.823 million, down 1.9% YoY, pork production of 4.21 million tons, down 1.5% YoYAccording to the sampling statistical analysis of 30 counties and 600 villages, pig production capacity was reduced by about 8-10%, of which the scale of the farm storage column decreased by about 5%, and the small and medium-sized farm depository column decreased by about 15%9FV
(3) The situation of slaughter ingestion and processingAccording to the Survey of Sample Enterprises of the National Livestock and Livestock Slaughter Industry Management System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of pigs slaughtered in Shandong Province in December 2018 was 1.9382 million, down 11.38% from June 2018 and 6.18% higher than in August 2018;9FV
(4) Market pricesSince July 2018, the price of live pigs and pork in our province has risen steadily, and by the end of August the price of live pigs in our province reached the highest price in the second half of the year, at 13.88 yuan/kg, followed by a sharp drop in pig pricesAs of mid-January 2019, the price of pig in our province was RMB12.64/kg, down 17.22% YoY, pork price was RMB22.48/kg, down 14.75% YoY, and piglets were RMB19.33/kg, down 28.38% YoY9FV
Second, market trends pre-judge9FV(i) outbreak risk compression pig production capacitySudden outbreaks of Swine Fever in Africa may have an uncertain impact on the industryThe outbreak in the surrounding provinces has put great erstonal pressure on the region, prompting farms to adjust their production capacityPig production capacity is expected to be compressed in 20199FV
　　(2) The price of pigs has rebounded from a shock First, the Spring Festival supply is basically adequate, the price of moderate adjustment Second, capacity adjustment pushed up prices as a whole in 2019 Pig prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2019, with a significant increase likely in some areas 9FV
　　(3) The industrial structure will be adjusted at an accelerated pace According to a questionnaire survey of some practitioners shows: First, the willingness to raise sows is reduced, some farmers have plans to reduce the amount of sow breeding; 9FV
　　Third, the later need to pay attention to 9FV (i) outbreak development As the weather warms up, the spread of one of the main media of swine fever in Africa is becoming more and more active, increasing the possibility of spreading in wild boars, the next epidemic prevention and control situation is still serious 9FV
　　(2) Biosecurity The outbreak of swine fever in Africa has exposed many weak links in the construction of the whole chain biosecurity system of china's livestock and poultry breeding industry, and we should strengthen the capacity-building of the grass-roots animal husbandry and veterinary team, such as personnel, funds and conditions 9FV
　　(3) Pork consumption In 2019, the stock will decrease, pork supply will decline, at the same time, consumers lack of scientific understanding, pig supply and consumption of "double decline" phenomenon will be further highlighted 9FV
　　(4) Industrial policy Regional restrictions, point-to-point docking, regional circulation and other policies have a greatimpact on regional pig prices, industry expectations and decision-making, will affect the pattern of production and marketing, scientific decision-making is very important 9FV
　　Fourth, the industry guidance suggests 9FV (i) to grasp the biosecurity control Establish and improve the pig farm biosecurity system, comprehensive lying the key points of pig farm biosafety control, to do control the car, keep the door, put the material, keep the person, watch the pig, pay attention to the neighbor Keep a close eye on the condition of the nearby and surrounding pig farms Do a good job of transporting pigs vehicles thoroughly cleaning and disinfection 9FV
　　(2) Optimize the structure of the pig population According to the record and appearance assessment, the elimination of sick pigs, weak pigs, disabled pigs and older pigs, optimize the structure of pigs, improve the health of pigs, and scientifically grasp the timing of the supplement 9FV
　　(3) Timely insurance to reduce losses Farms should raise ideological awareness and buy policy insurance for breeding sows and fattening pigs in a timely manner 9FV 9FV since August last year, some provinces in the country have experienced an outbreak of swine fever in Africa, which has had a certain impact on the pig industry According to the request of the provincial committee and the provincial government, the provincial animal husbandry and veterinary bureau organized the dynamic monitoring of the operation of pig industry, timely grasp the expected changes in the industry, and scientifically guide the production of pigs According to the January monitoring results, the province's pig production is relatively stable, short-term supply and demand is stable, production capacity decreased slightly, operating difficulties increased The specific analysis is as follows: 9FV , the current situation of pig production and marketing
9FV (i) pig production and marketing situation August-December 2018, affected by the outbreak of African swine fever in some provinces and regions, pig farms around the introduction, complement column enthusiasm was frustrated, the production and marketing of pig breeds in our province suffered a greater impact, pig storage column fell by about 10%, sales showed a significant decline 9FV
　　(2) The situation of commodity pigs In 2018, the province's pig stock of 29.856 million head, down 1.8% YoY, can breed sows 3.086 million head, down 5.7% YoY, pig output of 50.823 million, down 1.9% YoY, pork production of 4.21 million tons, down 1.5% YoY According to the sampling statistical analysis of 30 counties and 600 villages, pig production capacity was reduced by about 8-10%, of which the scale of the farm storage column decreased by about 5%, and the small and medium-sized farm depository column decreased by about 15% 9FV
　　(3) The situation of slaughter ingestion and processing According to the Survey of Sample Enterprises of the National Livestock and Livestock Slaughter Industry Management System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of pigs slaughtered in Shandong Province in December 2018 was 1.9382 million, down 11.38% from June 2018 and 6.18% higher than in August 2018; 9FV
　　(4) Market prices Since July 2018, the price of live pigs and pork in our province has risen steadily, and by the end of August the price of live pigs in our province reached the highest price in the second half of the year, at 13.88 yuan/kg, followed by a sharp drop in pig prices As of mid-January 2019, the price of pig in our province was RMB12.64/kg, down 17.22% YoY, pork price was RMB22.48/kg, down 14.75% YoY, and piglets were RMB19.33/kg, down 28.38% YoY 9FV
　　Second, market trends pre-judge 9FV (i) outbreak risk compression pig production capacity Sudden outbreaks of Swine Fever in Africa may have an uncertain impact on the industry The outbreak in the surrounding provinces has put great erstonal pressure on the region, prompting farms to adjust their production capacity Pig production capacity is expected to be compressed in 2019 9FV
　　(2) The price of pigs has rebounded from a shock First, the Spring Festival supply is basically adequate, the price of moderate adjustment Second, capacity adjustment pushed up prices as a whole in 2019 Pig prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2019, with a significant increase likely in some areas 9FV
　　(3) The industrial structure will be adjusted at an accelerated pace According to a questionnaire survey of some practitioners shows: First, the willingness to raise sows is reduced, some farmers have plans to reduce the amount of sow breeding; 9FV
　　Third, the later need to pay attention to 9FV (i) outbreak development As the weather warms up, the spread of one of the main media of swine fever in Africa is becoming more and more active, increasing the possibility of spreading in wild boars, the next epidemic prevention and control situation is still serious 9FV
　　(2) Biosecurity The outbreak of swine fever in Africa has exposed many weak links in the construction of the whole chain biosecurity system of china's livestock and poultry breeding industry, and we should strengthen the capacity-building of the grass-roots animal husbandry and veterinary team, such as personnel, funds and conditions 9FV
　　(3) Pork consumption In 2019, the stock will decrease, pork supply will decline, at the same time, consumers lack of scientific understanding, pig supply and consumption of "double decline" phenomenon will be further highlighted 9FV
　　(4) Industrial policy Regional restrictions, point-to-point docking, regional circulation and other policies have a greatimpact on regional pig prices, industry expectations and decision-making, will affect the pattern of production and marketing, scientific decision-making is very important 9FV
　　Fourth, the industry guidance suggests 9FV (i) to grasp the biosecurity control Establish and improve the pig farm biosecurity system, comprehensive lying the key points of pig farm biosafety control, to do control the car, keep the door, put the material, keep the person, watch the pig, pay attention to the neighbor Keep a close eye on the condition of the nearby and surrounding pig farms Do a good job of transporting pigs vehicles thoroughly cleaning and disinfection 9FV
　　(2) Optimize the structure of the pig population According to the record and appearance assessment, the elimination of sick pigs, weak pigs, disabled pigs and older pigs, optimize the structure of pigs, improve the health of pigs, and scientifically grasp the timing of the supplement 9FV
　　(3) Timely insurance to reduce losses Farms should raise ideological awareness and buy policy insurance for breeding sows and fattening pigs in a timely manner 9FV