Shandong people buy a pound of pork and spend 15 yuan less than the beginning of the year, and the pigs will be slaughtered in the first half of the year

 　　Since mid-January this year, due to the gradual increase in the supply of live pigs, the price of live pigs has generally entered a downward channel, which has aroused widespread concern in the society
.
What is the current situation of Shandong's live pig production and market supply? Will pork prices rebound? How to promote the sustainable and healthy development of live pig production? Statistics show that in the first half of this year, Shandong's live pig production capacity has accelerated, with 23.
732 million pigs produced for slaughter, an increase of 30.
8%.
Set the highest level in history
.
Pork prices in the province continued to decline slightly.
As of the third week of September, the average price was 23.
43 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 57.
68% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.
22%
.
Compared with the average pork price of 53.
21 yuan/kg in the first week of 2021, this is a 56% drop from the beginning of the year, and ordinary people spend 14.
89 yuan less on buying a catty of pork
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the first half of the year, live pig production increased by 30.
8%, the highest in historyFkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Shandong is a major province in the production and marketing of live pigs, with more than 28 million live pigs per year, more than 50 million slaughtered, and more than 4 million tons of pork production, ranking fourth in the country
.
Affected by factors such as the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, the production and supply of live pigs has declined in the first two years, and has not yet fully recovered
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to statistics, in the first half of 2021, the recovery of live pig production capacity accelerated.
In the first half of 2021, Shandong's live pig stock was 27,941,300, an increase of 20.
8% over the same period of the previous year
.
Among them, the number of breeding sows was 2.
9816 million, an increase of 17.
2% over the same period of the previous year
.
In the first half of the year, 23.
732 million live pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 30.
8% over the same period of the previous year, and the growth rate was the highest in history
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Work Meeting held on April 21 this year proposed that in terms of live pig production, Shandong Province’s mission this year is to stock 30.
98 million heads and produce 50 million heads
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From a national perspective, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 439 million live pigs at the end of June, basically the same as the 440 million at the end of 2017
.
Among them, there are 45.
64 million breeding sows, which has exceeded the level of 44.
72 million at the end of 2017
.
These data show that China's pig production capacity has been fully restored
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　After years of development, especially the recent two years of the epidemic, the pace of transformation and upgrading of the pig industry in Shandong has been significantly accelerated, and the industrial level has been significantly improved
.
In May of this year, the Shandong Provincial Government Office issued the “Implementation Plan for Building a Qilu Model for National Modern Animal Husbandry in Shandong Province” (Lu Zhengban Zi [2021] No.
44), which stated that by 2025, the production of meat, eggs, and milk will stabilize at 15 million tons.
The proportion of large-scale breeding has reached 88%, the contribution rate of science and technology has reached 70%, the deep processing rate of livestock products has reached 40%, the comprehensive utilization rate of manure has stabilized above 90%, and the quality, efficiency and competitiveness of animal husbandry have been significantly improved.
Regions with conditions Take the lead in basically realizing the modernization of animal husbandry, and the Qilu model construction of modern animal husbandry has achieved results
.
By 2030, the country will be the first to basically realize the modernization of animal husbandry, and the Qilu model will be fully formed
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Buying a pound of pork costs 14.
89 yuan less than at the beginning of the yearFkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From the perspective of market conditions, pork supply has increased so much that prices are still falling into the peak consumption season
.
According to monitoring data, pork prices in Shandong Province are in the middle and lower reaches of the country
.
In the third week of September, the country’s live pig was 13.
45 yuan per kilogram, down 4.
5% month-on-month and 63.
4% year-on-year; pork was 23.
25 yuan, down 2.
8% month-on-month, and down 58.
2% year-on-year
.
Similarly, the price of pigs in Shandong Province continued to decline slightly, hitting a new low during the year
.
In the third week of September, according to the fixed-point monitoring of the prices of 26 bazaars in the province, the average price of live pigs for slaughter in the province was 12.
43 yuan/kg, the latest low point during the year, a year-on-year decrease of 64.
25% and a month-on-month drop of 6.
31%
.
The province's pork prices continued to decline slightly.
In the third week of September, the average pork price was 23.
43 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 57.
68% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.
22%
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Compared with the average pork price of 53.
21 yuan/kg in the first week of 2021, it is now down 56% from the beginning of the year.
The common people spend 14.
89 yuan less on buying a catty of pork, and the overall price of pork has fallen, and the common people have received more benefits
.
According to the monitoring and analysis of Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station, it is expected that as the effect of purchasing and storage "supporting the market" appears, and the influence of autumn and winter and double-season pork consumption season factors are superimposed, pig prices will stabilize and rebound, and pig prices are expected to rebound slightly in the future
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Optimize the sow stock structure and eliminate low-efficiency sowsFkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, the loss of Shandong self-breeding and self-raising pigs is about 500 yuan/head, and the loss of outsourced piglet breeding is about 1,200 yuan/head
.
As pig farming has fallen into a large-scale loss, the enthusiasm for replenishment of pigs has continued to be sluggish, and the wait-and-see mood of farmers has been strong, and the price of piglets has continued to fall for 21 weeks
.
As of the 37th weekend of the year, the piglet price in Shandong Province was RMB 32.
50/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 65.
21% and a month-on-month drop of 8.
19%
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to the monitoring and analysis of Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station, the current situation of discounted sales of foreign piglets has intensified.
On the one hand, it reflects the sluggish mood of replenishment, and on the other hand, it has become one of the important signals that the price of pigs has bottomed
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　As the price of pigs continues to decline, in order to cope with the market downturn, most pig farms (households) choose to slow down the production rhythm, optimize the sow stock structure, and eliminate low-efficiency sows
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to monitoring, in July, the national reproductive sow stock increased for 21 consecutive months before the end of the previous period, a decrease of 0.
5% month-on-month, and the month-on-month decline expanded to 0.
9% in August
.
Large-scale pig farms are more aggressive in pursuing the poor and retaining the best.
All low-yielding sows are eliminated, and all high-yielding sows are left.
The overall production efficiency is significantly improved
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, production is still growing inertially
.
According to national data, in August, the number of live pigs increased by 1.
1% month-on-month, which was an increase for six consecutive months.
In particular, the number of new-born piglets each month was still increasing significantly
.
From February to August, the average monthly growth rate of newborn piglets in large-scale pig farms is 2.
5%, which means that the number of pigs for slaughter from September this year to February next year will continue to increase
.
Since June, pig breeding has been at a loss.
In August, the national average loss of each pig for slaughter was 67 yuan, and the loss of pig farms (households) reached 52.
5%
.
According to the current trend of expansion of slaughter volume of live pigs, it will be more difficult to turn losses in the short term
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The Shandong Provincial Animal Husbandry General Station analyzed that pig prices continued to fall, which in the final analysis was caused by the relationship between supply and demand in the market
.
Affected by the continuous decline in pig prices and the continuous increase in feed costs, the situation of farmers selling off large pigs and phasing out low-yielding sows has increased.
However, there is no obvious sign of improvement in pork consumption at present, and the supply of pork in the market is absolutely sufficient
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Pig cycle" is averaged once every 3 years, and the second round of pork purchasing and storage startsFkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, the state continues to increase its purchasing and storage efforts to support the market, and strive to stabilize fluctuations in pig production capacity
.
In order to cope with the rapid fall in the prices of live pigs and pork, the state has launched the second round of pork purchasing and storage during the year
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　A few days ago, the Huashang Reserve Commodity Management Center issued a notice that the second round of the first central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage in 2021 will be held on October 10.
Purchase and storage auction transactions of 20,000 tons, an increase of 50% in volume
.
According to calculations, if the average domestic pig weighs 250 kilograms, the transaction is equivalent to 240,000 pigs, and the purchasing and storage efforts have been significantly increased
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Recently, local purchasing and storage have also started simultaneously.
At present, 17 provinces have started or started purchasing and storage.
The remaining provinces will start purchasing and storage in the fourth quarter.
The total number of local purchasing and storage has increased significantly, and the intensity has been significantly increased
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On September 23, the "Implementation Plan for Pig Production Capacity Regulation (Interim)" issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs pointed out that the recent rounds of "pig cycle" fluctuations indicate that to do a good job of stable production and supply of live pigs must be supported by a solid basic production capacity
.
The "Plan" mentioned that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with reference to the national pork output of 55 million tons in normal years, the "normal stock of reproductive sows is stable at about 41 million heads, and the minimum stock is no less than 37 million heads.
" "The target of regulation and control
.
"Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　It is understood that the "pig cycle" is a manifestation of the price adjustment of resource allocation in the pig industry.
The "pig cycle" is common in major pig-raising countries in the world such as the United States
.
Since 2009, China's live pig production and pork market supply have experienced 4 major fluctuations (on average every 3 years).
The most recent round is the most special one, and the recovery of production has exceeded expectations
.
It took more than one and a half years from the severe landslide to the basic recovery.
This is also the shortest natural production cycle from the replacement of gilts to the release of fat pigs, and the goal of production recovery was completed ahead of schedule
.
It took 16 months for pork prices to return to normal from their highest point, which is 6 months shorter than the previous rounds of "pig cycle"
.
Fkm China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry