Shandong: how does the entry of WTO affect the corn industry

Lead: January 25 Shandong Daily News: corn will be the most adversely affected food crops The import quota for corn was 5.85 million tons in 2002 and 7.2 million tons in 2004 In terms of the number of quotas alone, the impact does not seem to be significant However, it is important to note the simultaneous decrease in the number of exports (over 10 million tons of subsidized corn exports in 2000) If the two factors are taken into account, the change of domestic corn market supply after China's accession to the WTO will reach 15% This is a level of quantity that cannot be ignored China's accession to WTO will change the recent domestic corn price recovery trend From the perspective of price level, the market price of corn in China has always been higher than that in the international market Although China's corn does not have international competitive advantage, China has become a net exporter of corn since 1984 Except for 1995 and 1996, the net export status of other years has been maintained, with an average annual net export of about 5 million tons There is an obvious reverse correlation between China's corn export and the international market price When China's corn export increases, the international market price shows a downward trend On the contrary, when China's corn export decreases, the international market price shows an upward trend The world corn trade volume is about 80 million tons, of which the United States accounts for about 2 / 3 China's export volume reached 11 million tons when it was the highest, which is the second largest export country The main importers are Japan (16 million tons) and South Korea (8 million tons), etc China's import volume reaches 5 million tons at the most, which also plays an important role In addition to the absolute quantity of trade, the trade of corn in China is more changeable, from a larger exporter to a larger importer, and then to a larger exporter Therefore, the trend of China's corn import and export may be more sensitive to the impact of the world market More importantly, many research institutions at home and abroad have predicted that the import of corn in China will increase substantially in the future The main basis is that with the increase of population and the improvement of per capita income, the demand for livestock products will continue to increase substantially, which will lead to a substantial increase in the demand for feed According to the analysis of land and water resources in China, domestic production can not meet the demand of rapid development of animal husbandry for corn feed, so a large number of imported corn is inevitable Some foreign authoritative scholars have predicted that China will import 50 million tons to 100 million tons of grain in 2000, of which corn is the main part The reason why this phenomenon does not appear is that the speed of economic development is overestimated, but in the long run, the trend of supply shortage is inevitable.