Setting the tone of economic work in the second half of the year: stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the economic situation in the first half of the year and the economic work in the second half The meeting pointed out that in the second half of the year, economic work should adhere to the principle of seeking progress in stability, focusing on improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, adhering to the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, improving pertinence and coordination, making appropriate pre adjustment and fine adjustment in accordance with the changes in the economic situation, so as to achieve success in stability We should make overall plans to stabilize growth, adjust structure and promote reform, actively expand effective demand, focus on promoting transformation and upgrading, continuously deepen reform and opening up, focus on ensuring and improving people's livelihood, and ensure that the main tasks of economic and social development throughout the year are completed Stable growth the complex and stable economic environment at home and abroad still occupies an important position in the second half of the year, project approval may be accelerated, and in the future, railway investment, shantytown reconstruction, urban infrastructure construction, energy conservation and environmental protection and other fields will become the focus of investment Yesterday's meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee stressed that the current economic environment at home and abroad is very complex, and we should adhere to the principle of overall planning and stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform And put stable growth first Obviously, stable growth is still in an important position China's economic growth has fallen for two consecutive quarters, with GDP growth falling to 7.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, compared with the annual growth target of about 7.5% this year At a time when the market generally believes that the new leadership's efforts to promote structural tolerance for economic slowdown have improved, Premier Li Keqiang proposed that the economic operation should be kept in a reasonable range through macro-control, and the lower limit is to stabilize growth and ensure employment Analysts pointed out that from the perspective of the "bottom line" theory of economic growth and the recent statements of high-level officials, although the main tone of the current macro-control policy is no longer intended to stimulate "pushing up", it emphasizes the need to "support the bottom", the economic growth rate and employment level cannot slide out of the "bottom line", and the extent of economic growth decline tolerated by the government's structural adjustment cannot cause significant damage to the employment market Based on this point, the State Council recently issued a series of stable growth measures, including measures to accelerate the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industry and information consumption, accelerate the transformation of shantytowns and other measures to promote domestic demand, and reduce the tax burden of small and micro enterprises However, Zhang Liqun, a macro-economic researcher at the National Research Center, pointed out that this year's measures to stabilize growth are different from those used to stimulate growth alone Instead, they closely combine supply side policies with demand side policies, short-term goals with medium and long-term goals, and stabilize growth with promoting economic transformation The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee also proposed that stable growth would be achieved in the following aspects: fiscal and monetary policy, release of consumption and investment demand, and stabilize agricultural production The meeting proposed that we should continue to implement active fiscal policy and sound monetary policy, activate the stock, optimize the increment, strive to improve the efficiency of the use of financial funds, increase the strength of financial support for the real economy, and use the money on the cutting edge In response, analysts believe that there is still obvious downward pressure on China's economy in the second half of the year, but under the monetary policy framework of "controlling increment and activating stock", the central bank is not expected to carry out large-scale monetary easing According to the current situation, if the foreign exchange occupation continues to decrease, it does not exclude the need for the central bank to reduce the reserve ratio Earlier, Lou Jiwei, Minister of finance, said at the fifth round of the China US strategic and economic dialogue that China will not introduce a large-scale fiscal stimulus policy this year, and will make some policy fine adjustments to promote economic growth and employment on the premise of maintaining the total size of the fiscal deficit In addition, the meeting also called for the active release of effective demand, the promotion of residents' consumption upgrading, the maintenance of reasonable investment growth, the active and stable promotion of new urbanization with people as the core, and the promotion of stable and healthy development of the real estate market Lian Ping, chief economist of BOCOM, pointed out that in order to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target, the government is still likely to take actions in stabilizing investment in the second half of the year In the first half of the year, due to the change of the government, there are few projects approved by the national development and Reform Commission, and the project approval may be accelerated in the second half of the year In the future, investment in railway investment, shantytown reconstruction, urban infrastructure construction, energy conservation and environmental protection and other fields will become investment Focus The measures of adjusting the structure and adjusting the structure are frequently taken to improve the quality of economic growth The measures of speeding up the development of energy-saving and environmental protection industry and promoting information consumption, which are obviously issued one after another, are not only conducive to improving people's livelihood, but also can adjust the industrial structure, form a new economic growth point and promote economic transformation and upgrading The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the economic situation in the first half of the year and the economic work in the second half The meeting pointed out that in the second half of the year, economic work should be coordinated to stabilize growth, adjust structure, promote reform, actively expand effective demand, focus on promoting transformation and upgrading, and constantly deepen reform and opening up Judging from a series of recent statements and work deployed by the central government, it is obvious that the policy is intended to stabilize growth through structural adjustment and improve the quality of economic growth Half year economic data has been released Although the growth rate slightly slows down, it is a challenge as well as an opportunity for China After a long period of double-digit growth, China's economy has entered a turning period On the one hand, the potential growth rate of the economy has declined On the other hand, since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the quality of economic growth has been emphasized Therefore, structural adjustment must sacrifice part of the economic growth rate, which is the pain of structural adjustment Judging from a series of actions by the government, its tolerance for economic slowdown has increased Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of communications, said that the government will focus more on structural adjustment and economic reform, and policies such as streamlining administration and delegating power to invigorate the market, ensuring people's livelihood, stabilizing the economy and coordinating structural adjustment are expected to continue to be introduced The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee also deployed the key work of restructuring The meeting proposed that we should further stimulate the vitality of enterprises, increase policy support and services for small and medium-sized micro enterprises, further reduce the burden of fees, and expand the financing channels of enterprises Since this year, small and micro enterprises have been the first to bear the brunt of the cold economy, and quite a part of them have encountered difficulties in operation According to the latest data, the employment index of small and micro enterprises fell below 50 for four consecutive months, and fell to 47.3 in July, the lowest since March 2009 In order to support small and micro enterprises, the executive meeting of the State Council recently decided to expand the scope of application of the starting point of value-added tax business tax that was originally only applicable to individual industrial and commercial households and individuals to small and micro enterprises, temporarily exempt some small and micro enterprises from value-added tax and business tax, further fair tax burden and reduce burden for small and micro enterprises The reporter learned that in the next step, relevant departments will also study the long-term mechanism of tax reduction for small and micro enterprises Some experts in the industry said that at present, expanding the scope of application of the starting point is only a temporary transitional measure In the future, we can consider revising the corresponding contents in the detailed rules for the implementation of value-added tax and business tax, turning them into a long-term system, and at the same time, we should allow all enterprises to enjoy the starting point treatment The adjustment of industrial structure is undoubtedly one of the important fields of structural adjustment The meeting proposed that we should accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, actively cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries, accelerate the development of information industry, vigorously develop energy conservation and environmental protection and new energy industries, and promote the development of emerging service industries and life service industries Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council has studied and deployed to accelerate the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industry, promote information consumption, stimulate effective domestic demand, and promote economic transformation and upgrading The reporter understands that the implementation rules and specific measures on promoting energy conservation and environmental protection industry and information consumption are expected to be issued as soon as possible Lianping analysis said that under the premise of "stable growth", the measures taken by the State Council to accelerate the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industry and promote information consumption are not only conducive to improving people's livelihood, but also to adjust the industrial structure, form new economic growth points and promote economic transformation and upgrading To promote the reform and continue to release the reform dividend to add impetus to the sustainable development of the economy this round of streamlining administration and delegating power is comparable to the "reform of state-owned enterprises" It suddenly opens the door for private capital to enter major engineering projects and even traditional monopoly industries, which is expected to stimulate the enthusiasm and vitality of private capital investment "The reform of the administrative system is the key to stimulate the vitality of the market main body and enhance the endogenous power of economic development." Kong Jingyuan, director of the economic system comprehensive reform department of the national development and Reform Commission, once told reporters He said that the first task of the reform is the reform of the administrative system This year, there are two main tasks, namely, the reform of government institutions and the transformation of government functions Among them, the most important is the reform of the examination and approval system In fact, since May 15, the State Council has decentralized and cancelled 215 administrative examination and approval projects in four batches On the 23rd of this month, the State Council cancelled and delegated 50 administrative examination and approval projects, involving seven State Council departments including the state health and Family Planning Commission, the State Administration of press, publication, radio, film and television, and the State Administration of food and drug administration Among them, the State Administration of press, publication, radio, film and television has cancelled and decentralized the most projects, up to 17, such as the cancellation of "screenplay review of general theme films" In May, the first batch of cancelled and decentralized administrative approval projects involved oil and gas, civil airports, rail transit, mobile communications, and mineral resources development A series of previously regulated or monopolized investment projects As soon as possible to reduce the threshold of market access, the reform ideas and intentions of loosening the restrictions on private capital are very obvious "Reducing investment examination and approval is a key point of this project of canceling and delegating administrative examination and approval." The head of the national development and Reform Commission told the media "This round of streamlining administration and delegating power is comparable to the" reform of state-owned enterprises " It suddenly opens the door for private capital to enter major projects and even traditional monopoly industries, and is expected to stimulate the enthusiasm and vitality of private capital investment." Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at the decision-making advisory department of the State Administration College, said He believes that the cancellation and decentralization of nearly one hundred project approvals and other matters will bring capital and water to many industries "The original investment threshold and barriers are gone, the investment channels of private capital are unblocked, and the whole economic body is healthy." In addition, the other three aspects of reform - "deepening the reform of the financial system of Finance and taxation", "actively and steadily promoting the reform of resource products and environmental prices" and "focusing on the pilot of comprehensive supporting reform" are also actively promoted It is obvious to all that on July 20, the full liberalization of loan interest rate control of financial institutions marked the further deepening of interest rate marketization For the price reform of resource products and environment, kongjingyuan once said that this year, it will also push forward the price reform, simplify the classification of sales price, expand the scope of implementation of the same price for industrial and commercial power consumption, and improve the linkage mechanism of coal price and the formation mechanism of hydropower and nuclear power grid price Promote the construction of the national coal trading market system We will push forward the reform of natural gas prices and gradually straighten out the price comparison between natural gas and alternative energy sources In addition, the reporter learned that in terms of urbanization, we should also "reform pilot" That is, to carry out pilot comprehensive reform in small and medium-sized cities This includes "optimization of administrative levels and administrative divisions", "innovation of urban and rural social management system", "establishment of residence permit system", etc According to Kong Jingyuan's analysis, the establishment of residence permit system is the key measure to promote the citizenization of agricultural transfer population orderly 16 provinces, districts and cities have issued documents to explore the implementation of the residence permit system At present, the relevant departments are working hard to formulate residence