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On October 14, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the national consumer price index (CPI) for September, and the prices of pork, vegetables, eggs and other foods are high, and many institutions expect that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September may expand
.
The year-on-year increase in CPI in September may have expanded
Affected by the decline in food price increases, in August, CPI rose 2.
5% year-on-year, down 0.
2 percentage points
from the previous month.
What will be the CPI increase in September?
CPI rise and fall chart
.
Picture from the National Bureau of Statistics
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 30.
82 yuan/kg, up 5.
9% month-on-month and 54.
6% year-on-year; The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.
64 yuan/kg, up 13% month-on-month and 21.
3% year-on-year; The average wholesale price of eggs was 11.
64 yuan/kg, up 9.
1% month-on-month and 11.
2%
year-on-year.
"The mid-autumn season and the drop in temperature have further increased the demand for related foods, the absolute price of pork has reached a new high in the year, and the price of eggs has continued to rise
month-on-month.
" Industrial Securities said that although the cooling in late September improved the transportation of vegetables and vegetable prices fell to a certain extent, vegetable prices still recorded a large increase in September compared with the previous month
.
From a comprehensive base, the CPI is expected to rise by 2.
8%
year-on-year in September.
Zhang Yu, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, believes that overall, food prices will continue to bring upward pressure
to CPI.
However, on the other hand, the macro situation continues to suppress the upward slope of core inflation, while the adjustment of international oil prices has led to a slight decline in domestic refined oil prices, and CPI is expected to rise 0.
4% month-on-month in September and rise to about
2.
9% year-on-year.
According to statistics, the average forecast of 19 institutions for the year-on-year increase in CPI in September is 2.
99%.
If the above average forecast is realized, the year-on-year increase in CPI in September will widen or hit a new high
in the year.
There is no basis for a significant increase in pork prices
Since the beginning of this year, domestic pig prices have experienced a process of first falling and then rising, and are still in a fluctuating upward trend
recently.
Recently, a Zhongxin financial reporter noticed in a supermarket in Beijing's Xicheng District that the price of pork front tip and back tip is 21.
8 yuan / jin, which has been raised by two yuan in recent times, and the price of pork belly has not changed
.
Will pork prices continue to rise, driving CPI up?
"On the whole, pork prices may rise in the next stage, but there is no basis for a sharp increase, and there are still good conditions for
price stability.
" Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said
recently.
Fu Linghui pointed out that from the perspective of supply, the current pig production capacity is generally at a reasonable level, with the rise in market prices, the profitability of pig breeding is currently relatively good, and most farmers are expected to be good, which is conducive to the overall stability
of pig supply.
From the policy point of view, while the pig price rises too rapidly, the government reserves frozen pork in a timely manner to guide the price of pork to a reasonable range
.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, preliminary statistics show that in September, the state and various localities put in a total of about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves, and the number of monthly releases reached the highest level in history, and the release price was lower than the market price, effectively ensuring the supply and stable operation of
the pig pork market.
What is the CPI trend in the later stage?
According to the monitoring of 500 county fairs and collection points by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the prices of pig products, poultry products, beef and mutton, soybean meal and compound feed rose in the first week of
October.
Among them, the average price of pork in the country was 37.
80 yuan/kg, up 3.
4% from the previous week and 79.
6% year-on-year; The national average egg price was 12.
67 yuan/kg, up 0.
6% from the previous week and 18.
0%
year-on-year.
With some food prices rising, what is the next CPI trend?
Xu Dongshi, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, believes that considering the recovery of pork and vegetable prices in the second half of the year, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in the fourth quarter may reach about 2.
4%, and the annual CPI is expected to be around
2.
2%.
"Core inflation is expected to remain low over the next year
.
Although CPI may touch 3% year-on-year in individual months under the influence of base effect, there is no inflationary pressure
overall.
Zhang Yu said
.
;
; On October 14, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the national consumer price index (CPI) for September, and the prices of pork, vegetables, eggs and other foods are high, and many institutions expect that the year-on-year increase in CPI in September may expand
.
The year-on-year increase in CPI in September may have expanded
The year-on-year increase in CPI in September may have expanded Affected by the decline in food price increases, in August, CPI rose 2.
5% year-on-year, down 0.
2 percentage points
from the previous month.
What will be the CPI increase in September?
CPI rise and fall chart
.
Picture from the National Bureau of Statistics
.
The chart is from the trend chart
of CPI rise and fall of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Picture from the National Bureau of Statistics
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in September, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 30.
82 yuan/kg, up 5.
9% month-on-month and 54.
6% year-on-year; The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.
64 yuan/kg, up 13% month-on-month and 21.
3% year-on-year; The average wholesale price of eggs was 11.
64 yuan/kg, up 9.
1% month-on-month and 11.
2%
year-on-year.
"The mid-autumn season and the drop in temperature have further increased the demand for related foods, the absolute price of pork has reached a new high in the year, and the price of eggs has continued to rise
month-on-month.
" Industrial Securities said that although the cooling in late September improved the transportation of vegetables and vegetable prices fell to a certain extent, vegetable prices still recorded a large increase in September compared with the previous month
.
From a comprehensive base, the CPI is expected to rise by 2.
8%
year-on-year in September.
Zhang Yu, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, believes that overall, food prices will continue to bring upward pressure
to CPI.
However, on the other hand, the macro situation continues to suppress the upward slope of core inflation, while the adjustment of international oil prices has led to a slight decline in domestic refined oil prices, and CPI is expected to rise 0.
4% month-on-month in September and rise to about
2.
9% year-on-year.
According to statistics, the average forecast of 19 institutions for the year-on-year increase in CPI in September is 2.
99%.
If the above average forecast is realized, the year-on-year increase in CPI in September will widen or hit a new high
in the year.
There is no basis for a significant increase in pork prices
There is no basis for a significant increase in pork prices Since the beginning of this year, domestic pig prices have experienced a process of first falling and then rising, and are still in a fluctuating upward trend
recently.
Recently, a Zhongxin financial reporter noticed in a supermarket in Beijing's Xicheng District that the price of pork front tip and back tip is 21.
8 yuan / jin, which has been raised by two yuan in recent times, and the price of pork belly has not changed
.
Will pork prices continue to rise, driving CPI up?
"On the whole, pork prices may rise in the next stage, but there is no basis for a sharp increase, and there are still good conditions for
price stability.
" Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said
recently.
Fu Linghui pointed out that from the perspective of supply, the current pig production capacity is generally at a reasonable level, with the rise in market prices, the profitability of pig breeding is currently relatively good, and most farmers are expected to be good, which is conducive to the overall stability
of pig supply.
From the policy point of view, while the pig price rises too rapidly, the government reserves frozen pork in a timely manner to guide the price of pork to a reasonable range
.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, preliminary statistics show that in September, the state and various localities put in a total of about 200,000 tons of government pork reserves, and the number of monthly releases reached the highest level in history, and the release price was lower than the market price, effectively ensuring the supply and stable operation of
the pig pork market.
What is the CPI trend in the later stage?
What is the CPI trend in the later stage? According to the monitoring of 500 county fairs and collection points by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the prices of pig products, poultry products, beef and mutton, soybean meal and compound feed rose in the first week of
October.
Among them, the average price of pork in the country was 37.
80 yuan/kg, up 3.
4% from the previous week and 79.
6% year-on-year; The national average egg price was 12.
67 yuan/kg, up 0.
6% from the previous week and 18.
0%
year-on-year.
With some food prices rising, what is the next CPI trend?
Xu Dongshi, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, believes that considering the recovery of pork and vegetable prices in the second half of the year, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in the fourth quarter may reach about 2.
4%, and the annual CPI is expected to be around
2.
2%.
"Core inflation is expected to remain low over the next year
.
Although CPI may touch 3% year-on-year in individual months under the influence of base effect, there is no inflationary pressure
overall.
Zhang Yu said
.
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