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"Second Senior Brother" has become the protagonist again, how long will the C position stand?

 Last Update: 2022-10-20
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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The recent strong rise in pig prices has put the pig industry in the spotlight
again.
sED-，

On October 11, official monitoring data showed that in the 39th week of 2022 (September 26 ~ September 30), the weekly average of the total ex-factory price index of lean white strip pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) was 31.
44 yuan per kilogram, up 107.
2%
year-on-year.
sED-，

Stimulated by the upward trend of pig prices, the market speculation of weight increase and secondary fattening has increased again, and the pig industry is overly optimistic about the pig price in the aftermarket, but this probability is another illusion
.
The current hog market is in a normal pig cycle and upward stage, and it is unrealistic
to expect more than expected increases and excess profits.
sED-，

At present, the profit of the pig industry is the best level in the past two years, in the face of farmers are more inclined to press the fence to gain weight or secondary fattening to bet on the winter consumption season after 1~2 months, rather than to make up the fence to bet on the market situation after 4~6 months, a number of industry insiders pointed out that the market speculation again increased, in the short term will boost the pig price, but will also overdraft the later increase
.
sED-，

On October 9, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, in order to effectively do a good job in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pig market, the state will recently release the fifth batch of central pork reserves
this year.
sED-，

From the frequent efforts of macro-control policies to the increase in pig supply by head pig enterprises, it is unlikely
that pig prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter.
This means that in the process of this game between policy and market, the shock pattern of short-term rise and long-term consolidation of pig prices will continue until the end of the year
.
sED-，

sED-，

Speculation on pig prices behind the pen salesED-，

The current rise in pig prices, from the perspective of the pig cycle, is in a normal upward cycle
.
In mid-to-late March this year, the national pig price once fell to 11.
5 yuan / kg, and then began to rise
.
Some experts believe that this is the beginning
of a new round of upward cycle.
sED-，

However, the more direct influencing factor is the weight gain of the pressure fence and the promotion of secondary fattening
.
sED-，

As a live pig, from the perspective of breeding cost performance, reaching the standard weight (105~120 kg) should be slaughtered and sold
.
However, if farmers are generally optimistic about the price of pigs in the later stage, there will be speculation of weight increase and secondary fattening, resulting in a reduction in staged pig slaughtering, and downstream slaughtering enterprises will continue to raise pig prices, thereby further strengthening the expectation of rise, and finally the weight of pigs out of the slaughter reaches 200 kg or even higher
.
sED-，

"Pig farmers generally expect pig prices to rise
in the later stage.
" Wang Zuli, chief expert of pig industry monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told the first financial reporter that compared with the first half of the year, the second half of the year is obviously the peak season
for pork consumption.
The drop in temperature, coupled with the National Day, as well as the upcoming New Year's Day, Spring Festival and other holiday factors, have a significant driving effect
on pork consumption.
sED-，

It is based on this expectation that when pig prices fell around August this year, some farmers re-staged the drama of "weight gain and secondary fattening"
.
Since September, the average daily slaughter of pigs has remained low, but the pig price has not declined, and a large part of the factor is that the pig pen has not formed a pork supply
.
sED-，

Lin Guofa, research director of Brake Agricultural Products Purchasing Network, told First Finance and Economics that at the end of March this year, when pig prices stabilized and rose, some farmers saw the opportunity to reap the dividends
of the rapid rise in pig prices at the end of June and the beginning of July by delaying elimination and secondary fattening.
Farmers who have tasted the sweetness of this time have strengthened their optimistic confidence in future pig prices, and at the same time, cash flow has also supported their old skills
.
Behind the speculation is a keen grasp
of the trend of pig prices.
sED-，

From August to October 2021, pig prices plummeted, and pig prices even fell to 10 yuan / kg in some areas, and a large number of farmers pressed the fence in the early stage, resulting in a continuous spread of market panic, and farmers not only sold pigs, but even eliminated a large number of capable sows and gilts, resulting in a low
supply of piglets from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022.
sED-，

With the passage of time, the number of large pigs available for slaughter after June decreases, and the pig price enters a stage
of rapid increase.
At the end of June and the beginning of July this year, the pig price rose continuously, without any correction, and the single-day increase exceeded 1 yuan / kg
.
Taking the first week of July as an example, continuing the upward momentum in late June, the pig price first broke through the important mark of 20 yuan / kg, and then rose by 20% in a week, the national average price approached 24 yuan / kg, and many places in China exceeded 25 yuan / kg
.
sED-，

In early July, the National Development and Reform Commission adopted regulatory measures
including holding a special meeting on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pig market, studying the launch of the central pork reserve, and discussing with the Dalian Commodity Exchange to strengthen the linkage supervision of the spot futures market.
Subsequently, pig prices fell
for a while.
On July 28, the average price of live pigs in the country fell back to 20.
5 yuan / kg, and the average price in some provinces and regions fell below 20 yuan / kg
.
However, this wave of decline has stimulated some farmers to intervene
again.
sED-，

In view of the current situation of reluctance to sell and secondary fattening, Wang Zuli also mentioned that this may give cumulative pressure to the next Spring Festival market, and it is not ruled out that the concentrated listing of large pigs in a specific period of time in the future will put greater pressure on
pig prices.
He suggested that the speculative psychology of farmers should not be too heavy, or they should go out of the market, put the money they should earn in their pockets, and do not pursue to earn the last copper plate
.
sED-，

Cautious optimism behind the rise in pig pricessED-，

At the beginning of July, the pig price started with a short surge, followed by a high of nearly 3 months of consolidation, and fluctuated
in the range of 20~23 yuan / kg for a long time.
sED-，

After entering September, the upward trend of pig price volatility has become more and more obvious
.
After late September, the price of foreign ternary pigs fully exceeded the 24 yuan/kg mark, refreshing the high point
of pig prices in early July.
Among them, many places in Guangdong and Fujian have approached or reached 26 yuan / kg
.
Compared to the same period last year, pig prices have doubled
.
sED-，

However, from a month-on-month perspective, the pig price of 24 yuan/kg is only slightly higher than 3 months ago
.
sED-，

Compared with the volatile hog prices, the piglet price trend is relatively stable
.
Among them, the average price of 15 kg piglets rose steadily from 40 yuan / kg in early July to 50 yuan / kg at the end of July, and fell back to 42~43 yuan / kg
in late September.
sED-，

However, the trend of pig farming profits has also diverged.

The piglet breeding profit has steadily recovered from near the breakeven line in June to 100~200 yuan / head, basically getting rid of the shadow of loss; The average profit of fattening and self-breeding and self-raising mode was 900~1000 yuan / head and 800~900 yuan / head respectively, which was the best level of the year and is expected to surpass last year; The upward pressure on costs caused by the sharp rise in soybean meal prices in the early stage was completely absorbed
.
sED-，

It is worth mentioning that the farmers who bought pigs for secondary fattening in May ~ June are fully profitable, but most of the farmers who only started to purchase pigs for secondary fattening in July are at a loss
.
sED-，

The piglet price is relatively stable and even falling, Lin Guofa explained, on the one hand, because the inflection point of the sow inventory has appeared 5 months ago, the supply of commercial piglets in the market has a trend of expanding month by month; On the other hand, the industry's prediction of the future market of pig prices still has reservations
.
Although the current profit is at the best level in two years, the enthusiasm of farmers who purchase fattening is not very
high.
Due to the cautious expectation of the future market, compared with gambling on the market situation after 4~6 months, farmers are more inclined to press the fence to gain weight or secondary fattening, and bet on the winter consumption season after
1~2 months.
The situation of oversupply has appeared, resulting in the phenomenon
that piglet prices diverge from pig prices.
sED-，

In response to the market's excessive optimism about the future market of pig prices, Lin Guofa said that the basic driving force for this round of pig price increases is a wave of capacity reduction from June 2021 to April 2022
.
The number of capable sows has shrunk from 45.
5 million to less than 42 million, a decrease of 8%~9%.

Referring to the relationship between the de-capacity range and the price increase of the pig cycle in history, the increase between the low point (about 12 yuan / kg) and the high point of the current round of pig cycle is estimated to be about 80%~120%, that is, 22~25 yuan / kg
.
From the perspective of cost profit margin, the high point of breeding profit margin of previous pig cycles is about 50%~80%, and the price high point is about 24~29 yuan / kg according to the current full cost of 16 yuan / kg
.
sED-，

From a macro level, in the second half of this year, the core logic of the pig market is a game
of fundamentals and policies.
The results of capacity reduction in 2021 determine that the overall pig price in the second half of 2022 is still bullish, but the widespread existence of market speculation will overdraft the increase, and the relatively weak policy control and demand will lead to a phased decline
.
Therefore, the upward shock is the main feature of the pig market in the second half of the year, which is manifested in a short rise time, a long shock time, and the difficulty of grasping the market rhythm
.
sED-，

Although the pig price will remain high in the next 1~2 months, and even there will be a certain increase in stages, there are also certain variables
.
Lin Guofa said that with the delay in slaughter and the continuous weight gain of pigs for secondary fattening, when the market found that the demand for pork in the fourth quarter of this year was lower than expected, and the later imported pork arrived in Hong Kong and other factors fermented, the pressure on pig prices in December this year is likely to break out in a concentrated manner, and even it is not ruled out that pig prices will fall again near
the cost line early next year.
sED-，

sED-，
sED-，

In the first eight months, pork imports fell by 60% year-on-yearsED-，

Due to the inversion of domestic and foreign pig prices in the early stage, imported pork has dropped
sharply.
According to customs data, pork imports were 2.
84 million mt in the first eight months of 2020 and 2.
81 million mt
in the first eight months of 2021.
However, in January ~ August 2022, there were only 1.
06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of more than 60%, far lower than the same period
.
sED-，

There are three reasons
behind this.
First, after the recovery of pig production capacity, the domestic pork supply exceeded demand, and the overall performance of pig prices was sluggish, especially in the first quarter, resulting in the narrowing of the price difference of imported products and the price advantage was no longer there; Second, from January 1 this year, the tariff on pork products will be restored from the provisional tax rate of 8% to 12%, and the price advantage of imported pork has been further weakened; Third, under the tense international environment, the price of customs pork products has risen, while the depreciation of the renminbi and the rising cost are not conducive to the import
of pork.
sED-，

In August 2018, an outbreak of African swine fever occurred in China, which led to a sharp decline in domestic pig inventory and a sharp increase
in pig prices in 2019.
In order to reduce the cost of pork imports, the state temporarily adjusted the import tariff on pork from 12% to 8%.

With the recovery of domestic pig production capacity, the pig price once plummeted to 10.
5 yuan / kg
in September 2021.
sED-，

Now, in order to protect the healthy development of domestic pig breeding, the state has restored the pork import tariff from the provisional 8% to 12%.

According to the average import pork of 2,050 US dollars / ton this year, the RMB exchange rate of 7.
1 to calculate, import tariffs will increase by about
580 yuan per ton.
sED-，

sED-，

With the sharp rise in domestic pig prices, CME CME pork futures prices have fallen from 91 cents/lb to the current 76 cents/lb, and pork imports have shown positive prices
.
sED-，

The industry expects that pork imports are expected to increase
in the later stage.
Lin Guofa said that it is expected that pork imports in the four months of September ~ December are expected to reach 1 million tons, and the annual import will exceed 2 million tons, close to 2019 (1.
99 million tons), but still lower than 2020 (4.
3 million tons) and 2021 (3.
57 million tons).

sED-，

The "14th Five-Year Plan" National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Industry Development Plan proposes to ensure that the self-sufficiency rate of pork is maintained at about
95%.
sED-，

In China, pork imports are cyclical
.
Pig prices are rising, and imports are large; Pig prices fell and imports fell
.
Before the outbreak of African swine fever, domestic imports of pork and pig by-products were controlled within 3 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate
of 95% could be met in most years.
sED-，

However, affected by African swine fever, in 2019, pork imports were 2 million tons, and the external dependence was within
5%.
If we consider the import of more than 1 million tons of pig by-products, the import dependence reaches about
8%.
In 2020 and 2021, the dependence on pork imports exceeded 5%.

Especially in 2020, if the import of pig by-products is included, the import dependence will reach 13%.

sED-，

Lin Guofa said that with the increase in the dependence of domestic feed raw materials on foreign countries and the increase in breeding costs, it is difficult to ensure a self-sufficiency rate
of 95%.
sED-，

;

The recent strong rise in pig prices has put the pig industry in the spotlight
again.
sED-，

31.
44 yuan per kilogram, up 107.
2%
year-on-year.

Recently, the state will release the fifth batch of central pork reserves
this year.

sED-，

Speculation on pig prices behind the pen salesED-，

Speculation on pig prices behind the pen sale

However, the more direct influencing factor is the weight gain of the pressure fence and the promotion of secondary fattening
.
sED-，

A more direct influencing factor is the weight gain of the pressure fence and the promotion of secondary fattening
.

At the end of June and the beginning of July this year, the pig price rose continuously, without any correction, and the single-day increase exceeded 1 yuan / kg
.
Taking the first week of July as an example, continuing the upward momentum in late June, the pig price first broke through the important mark of 20 yuan / kg, and then rose by 20% in a week, the national average price approached 24 yuan / kg, and many places in China exceeded 25 yuan / kg
.

However, this wave of decline has stimulated some farmers to intervene
again.

Cautious optimism behind the rise in pig pricessED-，

Cautious optimism behind the rise in pig prices

At the beginning of July, the pig price started with a short surge, followed by a high of nearly 3 months of consolidation, and fluctuated
in the range of 20~23 yuan / kg for a long time.
sED-，

After late September, the price of foreign ternary pigs fully exceeded the 24 yuan/kg mark, refreshing the high point
of pig prices in early July.

However, from a month-on-month perspective, the pig price of 24 yuan/kg is only slightly higher than 3 months ago
.
sED-，

Farmers who buy pigs for secondary fattening in May~June are fully profitable, but most of the farmers who start buying pigs for secondary fattening in July are mostly at a loss
.

The pressure on pig prices in December this year is likely to break out in a concentrated manner, and it is not even ruled out that pig prices will fall to near the
cost line again early next year.

sED-，
sED-，

In the first eight months, pork imports fell by 8% year-on-yearsED-，

In the first eight months, pork imports fell by 60% year-on-year

sED-，

With the sharp rise in domestic pig prices, CME CME pork futures prices have fallen from 91 cents/lb to the current 76 cents/lb, and pork imports have shown positive prices
.
sED-，

The "14th Five-Year Plan" National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Industry Development Plan proposes to ensure that the self-sufficiency rate of pork is maintained at about
95%.
sED-，

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