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Russian Wheat Spotlight: Russian wheat prices rose for the third consecutive week

 Last Update: 2022-09-30
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Wheat export price cereals

IKAR, a Moscow-based advisory firm, said that as of last Friday (September 23), the FOB price of new season wheat with 12.
5% protein in Russia at the Black Sea port was $325 per ton, up $
8 from a week ago.
For comparison, it gained $5 last week and last week it gained $
2.

SovEcon, another Moscow-based consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat delivered on time was $315 to $319 per ton, up from $310 to $
314 a week ago.

Port data showed that Russia exported 900,000 tons of cereal last week, down from 1 million tons
the previous week.

As wheat export taxes are lowered, it helps support traders' export profits
.
SovEcon had expected Russian cereal exports to rise to 4.
95 million tonnes in September, up from 4.
2 million tonnes
in August.

Russia's Ministry of Agriculture recently said Russia will export up to 30 million tons of cereals
in the second half of 2022.

Domestic wheat prices in Russia continued to rise
last week.
Domestic third-class wheat is quoted at 12,650 rubles per ton, up 50 rubles
from a week ago.

Russian wheat production expectations are raised

On Monday (September 26), EU crop monitoring agency MARS raised Russia's 2022 wheat production to a record 95 million tonnes, up from a June forecast of 88.
8 million tonnes, a 25 percent increase from 76.
25 million tonnes in the previous year and a 19 percent
increase from a five-year average of 79.
68 million tonnes.
Among them, winter wheat production will reach 70.
2 million tons, an increase of 31% over the previous year and 22% higher than the five-year average; Spring wheat production is expected to be 24.
8 million tonnes, up 10 percent from the previous year and 12 percent
from the five-year average.

Wheat production expectations after the MARS increase remain lower than those
of local Russian institutions.

Last week, SovEcon, a consulting firm in Moscow, raised Russian wheat production expectations to 100 million tonnes, up from 94.
7 million tonnes previously expected, as spring wheat yields rose
.

On September 19, IKAR expects Russian wheat production to be a record 99 million tons in 2022, up from 97 million tons forecast on September 12 and also higher than the 95 million tons
forecast on August 8.
Russia's wheat export forecast was raised to 47.
5 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 46 million tons
.

On September 12, the USDA raised Russia's 2022/23 wheat production forecast by 3 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 88 million tonnes to 91 million tonnes, up 21.
1 percent
from 75.
16 million tonnes from the previous year.
Russian wheat exports in 2022/23 are expected to reach a record 42 million tonnes, unchanged
from last month's forecast.

Russian farmers have harvested 96.
4 million tons of wheat

Data released by the Russian government shows that as of September 22, Russia's total cereal harvest production was 137.
9 million tons, compared with 132.
3 million tons a week ago and 103.
1 million tons in the same period last year
.

Russia has so far harvested 100 million tonnes of wheat, up from 96.
4 million tonnes a week ago and 72.
9 million tonnes
in the same period last year.
Russian farmers harvest winter wheat
in July.

Russian wheat yields rose to 3.
36 tonnes per hectare this year, up from 2.
63 tonnes/ha
in the same period last year.

Tariffs continue to be reduced

Between September 28 and October 4, 2022, the Russian wheat export tariff is 2,476.
6 rubles per ton (about $
42.
79).
That compares to 2,668.
3 rubles (about $44.
41) per ton from September 21 to 27.

For comparison, before the first ruble-denominated export tax was implemented in July, the wheat export tax from June 29 to July 5 was $146.
10 / ton
.

Russian wheat sellers usually price their exports in U.
S.
dollars and purchase wheat
in rubles on the domestic market.
Due to the recent sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, the convertibility has decreased, making the calculation of export tariffs more complicated
.
From July, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture used rubles to deter wheat exports and set the base price of wheat for calculating tariffs at 15,000 rubles, instead of the previous $
200 per ton.
The export base price for barley and corn was also changed from $185/ton to 13,875 rubles
.

The ruble exchange rate has risen by 3% in the past week

On Monday at 0705 in Greenwich, the Russian ruble was trading at 58.
39 to the dollar, up 3.
0%
from a week ago.

Russia's financial markets were volatile last week as President Vladimir Putin signed a partial mobilization order
on Wednesday.
Russia's defense minister announced the conscription of 300,000 reservists for a special military operation
against Ukraine.
From 23 to 27 September, four oblasts, including Donznek, held a general vote
to join the Russian Federation.

On February 23 (before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict), the ruble was trading close to 80 against the US dollar, then fell to an all-time low of 121.
53 to the US dollar in early March, and then soared all the way to a seven-year high
of 50.
01 to the US dollar in June.
The strong ruble exchange rate has raised concerns among Russian policymakers and exporters, as a strong ruble could weaken exporters' sales revenues
.
The ruble remains the world's strongest currency
so far this year.

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