Risk factors for developing severe illness in COVID-19 patients vary by age

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which hospitalized patients are most likely to require mechanical ventilation or become critically ill, a study just published in Scientific Reports provides answers we didn't know before

Researchers at institutions such as the Institute for Systems Biology (ISB) found that vital signs and laboratory test results on admission were the most accurate predictors of disease severity

"Our model shows that in the hospital setting, chronic disease, comorbidities, gender and ethnicity are much less important in the early prediction of severe illness," said first author Sevda Molani, PhD, of the Institute for Systems Biology

Molani and team divided hospitalized patients into two groups based on their age: one group was between the ages of 18 and 50, and the other was 50 or older

For example, in younger patients, body mass index (BMI) is an important predictor of COVID-19 severity

For both groups of patients, vital signs at admission, early laboratory test results, and need for supplemental oxygen were more important predictors of severe outcomes than comorbidities and demographic data

Dr Jason Goldman, an infectious disease expert at the Swedish Centre for Research and Innovation, said: "Predicting the risk of COVID-19 is complex because the disease course varies widely between patients, with some being completely asymptomatic, while others become severely ill or die.

"This study challenges our conventional wisdom that comorbidities are the main driver of serious outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, such as the need for mechanical ventilation or death

The retrospective study analyzed electronic health records of more than 6,900 patients between June 30 and November 15, 2021

Existing hospitalized patient risk models were developed early in the pandemic

"Chronic disease remains a major risk factor for severe COVID-19

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Molani, S.