Rising prices of agricultural products: is it the Golden Rooster announcing the dawn or the rooster crowing in the middle of the night?

Introduction: after the Spring Festival, CBOT soybeans, wheat, corn and cotton have seen a sharp upward trend under the pursuit of international funds Last year, the world's agricultural prices have been shrouded in the haze of record production increase, so it's a little surprising when the prices of agricultural products are so overwhelming At the beginning of the year of the rooster, is it the Golden Rooster or the rooster crowing in the middle of the night? After combing the fundamentals of agricultural products again, an important factor that has been ignored for a time is that China's persistent demand growth has come to the surface again The drought in South America is just a fuse, otherwise we can't explain the soaring price of unseeded cotton and corn, and the soybean in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil will not change the overall reality that the world's soybean supply exceeds the demand even if the grain is not harvested Cotton: China's demand makes trampoline jump With the 30-year international textile quota system broken, China's cotton market is facing unprecedented historical opportunities, but China's cotton production system has not yet fully kept up with the pace of market development As China's cotton production has not yet formed a subsidy and support mechanism similar to that of developed countries, China's cotton production capacity is still very fragile The most obvious performance is that China's cotton planting area is very flexible under the effect of price Because there is no practical supporting measures to match, stabilizing the cotton planting area is still the wishful thinking of the management level According to the survey results of cotton planting intention in recent provinces and cities, it is estimated that the cotton planting area in each production area will decrease by 15-20% this year This kind of "warping" phenomenon between the current year's output and the next year's planting area is bound to reappear this year The expected reduction of China's planting area and the increase of demand have aroused widespread imagination Sensitive American funds have greatly increased in the New York cotton market In addition to production and consumption, we also need to pay attention to another level of problems, that is, the linkage effect of China's textile exports and domestic and foreign cotton prices Different from soybeans and wheat, the final consumer end of China's cotton demand is not at home A large part of cotton is finally exported to foreign countries The final consumption market of China's cotton is global, which has expanded broad space for China's cotton consumption In addition, China's ginning capacity is 20 million tons per year, while the world's total cotton production is 20 million tons That is to say, if all China's ginning capacity is opened, the world's cotton can be rolled again It is expected that, as in previous years, China's cotton import will drive the international cotton price This interactive effect is very obvious in the soybean and basic metal market in 2003-2004, and cotton will follow suit Wheat: still need pie Due to the increase of new supply of domestic grain in 2004, the gap of domestic grain production and demand narrowed The gap of wheat production and demand narrowed from 17.5 million tons last year to about 13 million tons this year, but the gap between supply and demand is still large The domestic wheat inventory, especially the turnover inventory, is still in a downward trend compared with the previous years Therefore, the relationship between domestic wheat supply and demand is still in a tight balance this year State At present, China's wheat production is still in the situation of relying on the sky for food It is still necessary to "drop pie from the sky" to feed a billion Chinese people, so the weather in the future is still crucial In 2005, the country will continue to use inventory to make up the gap In addition, the country will balance the domestic wheat market through imports However, if the import volume is too large, there is another contradiction that drives the international source price China's demand has affected world commodity prices in a deeper level, such as in the global energy supply structure, currency exchange rate, raw material resources and so on China's strong demand is behind the sharp rise in global agricultural prices, which makes us full of daybreak's vision and yearning for the future price of agricultural products International market analysts once lamented that among all the factors affecting commodity prices, only China's demand is unfathomable, which also reflects China's strong demand After entering WTO, China is rewriting the history of world agricultural product price